My honest take on state of race less than two weeks out

[Reaganfan]

Here's my honest take on the election. Four years ago, I began to feel as though McCain would win until the week of September 15th when Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and McCain declared, "the fundamentals of our economy are strong". After that, it was done. Through the debates, which were neither a blowout for Obama or McCain, all through October, I had the opinion that Obama would win. He won by a larger margin than I had anticipated, and despite voting for John McCain, I knew it was over throughout October, and I didn't make any qualms to anybody otherwise.

This time around, I put myself in an interesting quandary. I put myself in the mindset that if I were supporting Barack Obama, how would I feel right now? I came to one conclusion...I would be sweatin' bullets. I'd be terrified. Utterly terrified.

13 days to go. Less than two weeks. The polls are terrifying for Obama.

October 24, 2008
National Average: OBAMA + 7.9

October 24, 2012
National Average: ROMNEY + 0.9

You might say Romney's lead isn't significant, and you're correct, but compared to four years ago, it's a drastic change. That would terrify me as an Obama supporter.

Let's break down some states...

VIRGINIA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +8.0
October 24, 2012 Average: TIE

MICHIGAN
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +10.5
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +5.0

PENNSYLVANIA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +11.4
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +4.8

MISSOURI
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +2.7
October 24, 2012 Average: ROMNEY +10.4

IOWA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +11.8
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +2.0

WISCONSIN
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +11.4
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +2.7

OHIO
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +6.6
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +1.7

FLORIDA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +2.0
October 24, 2012 Average: ROMNEY +1.8

COLORADO
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +5.4
October 24, 2012 Average: ROMNEY +0.2

NORTH CAROLINA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +1.3
October 24, 2012 Average: ROMNEY +5.6

I am not saying that Barack Obama has no chance of winning this election. In fact, I'd say he has a decent shot, especially considering the state of the country and the polarization of it. However, the uber-confidence of the Obama campaign seems more delusional than the confidence being projected from the Romney campaign.

Make no mistake about it, if I was supporting Obama, I'd be sweatin' bullets.

[old timey villain]

Who says we're not sweating bullets? Even so, Obama will probably win.

[opebo]

That's cool - where did you get all those poll numbers from 2008?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Both sides should be sweatin' bullets right now.  Nobody has a single clue about what's going to happen in 13 nights from tonight.  This is one of the biggest unknown elections that we've had in quite some time.

[Reaganfan]

That's cool - where did you get all those poll numbers from 2008?

Real Clear Politics averages.

[Brittain33]

With your current numbers, Obama still wins the electoral college easily.

[old timey villain]

By the way, 2008 was an outlier. The electorate has been intensely polarized since the 90s. 2008 is what happens when one candidate has the perfect storm of charisma, economic collapse, and an incompetent challenger. If the stock market hadn't crashed in such a big way and McCain had picked someone sane as his running mate, we would have seen a typical new Millennium election where one side wins by a small margin.

2012 is simply a return to normal.

[Eraserhead]

RCP has been especially flagrant about ignoring polls where Obama is performing strongly this time.

Even so, Romney's lead is down to 0.6% on there now. Obama is having a good day.

Of course, both sides are going to be nervous/excited. This looks like it's going to be a close one unless we start seeing some huge changes in these last days. Obama is still more likely to win than not though, thanks to the EC.

[M]

Would you mind updating this chart to include final vote tallies?

[Wisconsin+17]

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McCain's poll numbers improved after he chose Palin. He was losing all through the summer, and only caught Obama in the time after he picked Palin and before the economic collapse.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

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McCain's poll numbers improved after he chose Palin. He was losing all through the summer, and only caught Obama in the time after he picked Palin and before the economic collapse.

Palin was an asset in the first few weeks after she was chosen and a liability afterwards.

[Brittain33]

Both sides should be sweatin' bullets right now.  Nobody has a single clue about what's going to happen in 13 nights from tonight.  This is one of the biggest unknown elections that we've had in quite some time.

Romney and Obama have traded leads in the national polls, but Obama has had a consistent lead in the electoral vote, and both sides agree that Obama has a superior ground game. We have an educated guess about what's going to happen. That may change but I don't think it's a jump ball or a mystery.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

By the way, 2008 was an outlier. The electorate has been intensely polarized since the 90s. 2008 is what happens when one candidate has the perfect storm of charisma, economic collapse, and an incompetent challenger. If the stock market hadn't crashed in such a big way and McCain had picked someone sane as his running mate, we would have seen a typical new Millennium election where one side wins by a small margin.

I'll dispute that.  Despite the ribbing she deservedly got, on the whole Palin was a small plus for McCain.  It was the top of the ticket that did in McCain/Palin, not the bottom.  McCain's pathetic response to the crash was what did the ticket in.

[Devils30]

RCP took partisan polls out of the picture the final 3 weeks last time. This year if it's a junk poll from Gravis it sure is in.

[Ebowed]

Yeah, McCain lost as soon as he suspended his campaign to go work on a response to the crash, with Obama immediately responding that any President will be required to multitask.  Romney, on the other hand, has been endorsing Obama's position on virtually anything he can get away with since the debates and as such is gaining popularity with low-information voters.  By adopting Obama's policies just before the election, Romney muddles the disparity in leadership and management style that ultimately lost McCain the election.

[BlueSwan]

I certainly AM sweating bullets in a major way, so teah, I agree.

[Link]

Make no mistake about it, if I was supporting Obama, I'd be sweatin' bullets.

Thanks for the tip Captain Obvious.  Are there any Romney or Obama supporters that aren't "sweatin' bullets" in this nail biter?  Who's comfortable?  Who thinks their man has it in the bag?  Who's relaxing?  Reaganfan, please come back into your little thread and tell everyone you are supporting Romney and you are certain he is going to win.  Please go on record now so we have the opportunity to strip away what little credibility you have left come November.

Watch.  He won't do it.  Trolls gonna troll I guess...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I certainly AM sweating bullets in a major way, so teah, I agree.

Indeed. Obama is clearly ahead, but narrowly enough to make the waiting unbearable. I really hope he pulls off in the upcoming days.

[The Mikado]

Fair enough, though, since its coming down like this, it's worth pointing out that winning either OH or VA makes it extremely difficult for Romney to win.  You have VA as a tie and Obama marginally up in OH.

[GMantis]

I'm more surprised that so many Romney supporters are not sweating bullets. Think about it - with the poor economy, the attack in Libya and Obama's terrible performance in the first debate, Romney should be comfortably ahead. Yet he has a minimal advantage in the national polls and is behind in the state polls. So why are so many Romney supporters almost triumphant?

[Likely Voter]

The case for Mitt (and why Obama supporters should be sweating)
Romney has the national lead and the big mo so you can add 1 or 2 points to every poll. Plus undecideds are going to break for the challenger so that gives you another point. Combined that leads to Mitt winning all the battlegrounds except NV.

The case for  Obama (and why Romney supporters should be sweating)
Obama is ahead in enough states (OH, WI, NV, IA, NH) to get him over the top with room to spare. After winning the 2nd and 3rd debate Obama now has the mo and he has stopped Romney's march.  His momentum, ground game and underestimating Latino vote will give him more paths to victory and bring over CO, VA and FL. So he wins all the battlegrounds except NC.

[old timey villain]

By the way, 2008 was an outlier. The electorate has been intensely polarized since the 90s. 2008 is what happens when one candidate has the perfect storm of charisma, economic collapse, and an incompetent challenger. If the stock market hadn't crashed in such a big way and McCain had picked someone sane as his running mate, we would have seen a typical new Millennium election where one side wins by a small margin.

I'll dispute that.  Despite the ribbing she deservedly got, on the whole Palin was a small plus for McCain.  It was the top of the ticket that did in McCain/Palin, not the bottom.  McCain's pathetic response to the crash was what did the ticket in.

I have to disagree. McCain was pretty well respected even among Democrats before he chose Palin. McCain made tons of mistakes and the buck should always stop at the top of the ticket. But Palin, while briefly shaking up the campaign and energizing their base, became a huge liability. I have never before seen so many people that scared at the prospect of someone on a ticket running the country. It wasn't just doubts about her policies, it was real doubts about whether she was smart, competent or level headed enough to handle the job, especially if she had to take over and serve as President. She lost McCain a lot of voters who should have been 100% in his corner. Why do you think he lost Indiana?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

By the way, 2008 was an outlier. The electorate has been intensely polarized since the 90s. 2008 is what happens when one candidate has the perfect storm of charisma, economic collapse, and an incompetent challenger. If the stock market hadn't crashed in such a big way and McCain had picked someone sane as his running mate, we would have seen a typical new Millennium election where one side wins by a small margin.

I'll dispute that.  Despite the ribbing she deservedly got, on the whole Palin was a small plus for McCain.  It was the top of the ticket that did in McCain/Palin, not the bottom.  McCain's pathetic response to the crash was what did the ticket in.

I have to disagree. McCain was pretty well respected even among Democrats before he chose Palin. McCain made tons of mistakes and the buck should always stop at the top of the ticket. But Palin, while briefly shaking up the campaign and energizing their base, became a huge liability. I have never before seen so many people that scared at the prospect of someone on a ticket running the country. It wasn't just doubts about her policies, it was real doubts about whether she was smart, competent or level headed enough to handle the job, especially if she had to take over and serve as President. She lost McCain a lot of voters who should have been 100% in his corner. Why do you think he lost Indiana?

Yeah in "Game Change", in an Obama campaign focus group there was a lady who shouted about how Obama was a Muslim communist socialist. When Plouffe and Axelrod asked her why she was still undecided, she replied something along the lines of "I'm afraid of Palin becoming POTUS". I lol'd so hard at that.

[Torie]

I know it is hard, so hard, but maybe it's time to chill out and relax, and ease up on all these predictions. Nobody knows what will happen, even if the average of the "good" polls are dead on, which in and of itself is an assumption that might not be right given that the pollsters re-weight their actual results to reflect demographic or political models as to whom they think will turn out. Just my opinion.

[BM]

Can we get a list of every member of your family tree and their takes on the state of the race?