My honest take on state of race less than two weeks out

[User157088589849]

That's cool - where did you get all those poll numbers from 2008?

Real Clear Politics averages.

Hyper partisan right wing site.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

That's cool - where did you get all those poll numbers from 2008?

Real Clear Politics averages.

Hyper partisan right wing site.

I wouldn't say 'hyper partisan' but there is a definite slant.

[User157088589849]

That's cool - where did you get all those poll numbers from 2008?

Real Clear Politics averages.

Hyper partisan right wing site.

I wouldn't say 'hyper partisan' but there is a definite slant.

They include polls from focus on the family.
They include Gravis marketing whose owners have no market research credentials and all have financial problems yet have the money to do 5-6 polls a week.

[BM]

Before the new polls from Ohio came out I was pretty pessimistic, but now I'm 100% certain Obama will win and am just enjoying watching the Republicans convince themselves they have a chance when the writing is on the wall. When will we hear about the Bradley effect again? LOL

[HagridOfTheDeep]

What makes today's Ohio polls any more valuable than the wealth of polls we've had for the last two weeks? What about them makes you so certain? Obama is favoured, but there's two weeks to go and the polls have been all over the place. Come on. You're no better than anyone else.

[Orion0]

Before the new polls from Ohio came out I was pretty pessimistic, but now I'm 100% certain Obama will win and am just enjoying watching the Republicans convince themselves they have a chance when the writing is on the wall. When will we hear about the Bradley effect again? LOL

100% hey? If that's not a hack job of a reality based prediction I don't know what is. As the previous poster pointed your clear ignorance, I'll leave it at that.

[ajb]

I think anyone who's being honest can see that it's a close race right now. If the state-by-state polls are accurate, Obama would win an election held today, though possibly not the popular vote. The polls could obviously swing a bit either way, and either give Romney the election, or give Obama a bigger victory.
Both campaigns are obviously talking a good game about how they're sure they're going to win -- but all campaigns do that. It's not as though the McCain campaign in 2008 said, "let's face it, we're going to lose," even though by October they were probably pretty sure they were going to lose.
But Barack and Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and Obama for America have, between them, sent me twenty-one emails asking for money since Oct. 15. I don't think they're taking anything for granted, any more than the Romney people are.

[zorkpolitics]

Based on polling and early voting looks like Romney will win IN, NC, FL and VA.
OH, NV, IA still holding for Obama
CO and NH probably going to Romney, but still might end up going for Obama
WI, PA, MI leaning towards Obama.
So as of today Obama has a small lead.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Based on polling and early voting looks like Romney will win IN, NC, FL and VA.
OH, NV, IA still holding for Obama
CO and NH probably going to Romney, but still might end up going for Obama
WI, PA, MI leaning towards Obama.
So as of today Obama has a small lead.

I have some minor quibbles with some of these as I see the race as more friendly to Obama than you do, but I have a major one with Michigan.  That state is safe Obama right now, with plenty of other non-targets likelier to become targets before Michigan if something causes the race to take a major lurch towards Romney.

[King]

Come on, Naso.  This logic means we were sweating bullets in 2004 about Bush right now.  You and I both know we were fully-confident the man would pull through.

Obama's approval ratings are already at +3.5 RCP average and likely to grow on a debate bounce.  Seasonal hiring is beginning in retail.  October is going to be a good jobs report.

If Obama loses this thing, he'll be the first overall popular president to do so.  I guess there's a first for everything.  However, my common sense tells me not to believe this will be the first.

[TheWildCard]

My take from early on was that President Obama would be nearly unbeatable. Don't get me wrong, I've been a Romney supporter since he was Governor of MA and he's been a favorite of mine to be the party's presidential nominee for an equal period. However, the President is an icon and is an electrifying speaker. Such excellent politicians rarely lose.

Romney is doing the best he can and, IMHO, better than any of the other candidates that could have been selected. I now think the race is only lean Obama and I don't think I would dare guess who would win. The odds are in the President's favor though. He seems to have a good grasp on OH, unless the polls are wrong (unlikely but then again a lot of them are within the MoE). This makes me concerned that Romney is focusing on Ohio. Then again, PA has been the biggest tease for GOP candidates in recent years and other WI and MI haven't gone GOP for ages.

If Romney takes the lead in OH and gets stronger in FL and VA, I'll start to feel like this is winnable and possibly a lean Romney election. Until then I feel like it's going to be a slim Obama win.

[J. J.]

But Barack and Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and Obama for America have, between them, sent me twenty-one emails asking for money since Oct. 15. I don't think they're taking anything for granted, any more than the Romney people are.

I've gotten 3 since noon from Romney, et al.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

But Barack and Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and Obama for America have, between them, sent me twenty-one emails asking for money since Oct. 15. I don't think they're taking anything for granted, any more than the Romney people are.

I've gotten 3 since noon from Romney, et al.

I've gotten no campaign emails at all, so I win!

[Mr.Phips]

Come on, Naso.  This logic means we were sweating bullets in 2004 about Bush right now.  You and I both know we were fully-confident the man would pull through.

Obama's approval ratings are already at +3.5 RCP average and likely to grow on a debate bounce.  Seasonal hiring is beginning in retail.  October is going to be a good jobs report.

If Obama loses this thing, he'll be the first overall popular president to do so.  I guess there's a first for everything.  However, my common sense tells me not to believe this will be the first.

Debate bounce?  Obama didnt even do that well in that final debate.  October is going to be a good jobs report?  What is Obama going to find a way to play around with the numbers to get it down to 7.5%?