My honest take on state of race less than two weeks out

[Reaganfan]

Here's my honest take on the election. Four years ago, I began to feel as though McCain would win until the week of September 15th when Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and McCain declared, "the fundamentals of our economy are strong". After that, it was done. Through the debates, which were neither a blowout for Obama or McCain, all through October, I had the opinion that Obama would win. He won by a larger margin than I had anticipated, and despite voting for John McCain, I knew it was over throughout October, and I didn't make any qualms to anybody otherwise.

This time around, I put myself in an interesting quandary. I put myself in the mindset that if I were supporting Barack Obama, how would I feel right now? I came to one conclusion...I would be sweatin' bullets. I'd be terrified. Utterly terrified.

13 days to go. Less than two weeks. The polls are terrifying for Obama.

October 24, 2008
National Average: OBAMA + 7.9

October 24, 2012
National Average: ROMNEY + 0.9

You might say Romney's lead isn't significant, and you're correct, but compared to four years ago, it's a drastic change. That would terrify me as an Obama supporter.

Let's break down some states...

VIRGINIA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +8.0
October 24, 2012 Average: TIE

MICHIGAN
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +10.5
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +5.0

PENNSYLVANIA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +11.4
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +4.8

MISSOURI
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +2.7
October 24, 2012 Average: ROMNEY +10.4

IOWA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +11.8
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +2.0

WISCONSIN
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +11.4
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +2.7

OHIO
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +6.6
October 24, 2012 Average: OBAMA +1.7

FLORIDA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +2.0
October 24, 2012 Average: ROMNEY +1.8

COLORADO
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +5.4
October 24, 2012 Average: ROMNEY +0.2

NORTH CAROLINA
October 24, 2008 Average: OBAMA +1.3
October 24, 2012 Average: ROMNEY +5.6

I am not saying that Barack Obama has no chance of winning this election. In fact, I'd say he has a decent shot, especially considering the state of the country and the polarization of it. However, the uber-confidence of the Obama campaign seems more delusional than the confidence being projected from the Romney campaign.

Make no mistake about it, if I was supporting Obama, I'd be sweatin' bullets.

[Reaganfan]

That's cool - where did you get all those poll numbers from 2008?

Real Clear Politics averages.