My honest take on state of race less than two weeks out

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

By the way, 2008 was an outlier. The electorate has been intensely polarized since the 90s. 2008 is what happens when one candidate has the perfect storm of charisma, economic collapse, and an incompetent challenger. If the stock market hadn't crashed in such a big way and McCain had picked someone sane as his running mate, we would have seen a typical new Millennium election where one side wins by a small margin.

I'll dispute that.  Despite the ribbing she deservedly got, on the whole Palin was a small plus for McCain.  It was the top of the ticket that did in McCain/Palin, not the bottom.  McCain's pathetic response to the crash was what did the ticket in.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Based on polling and early voting looks like Romney will win IN, NC, FL and VA.
OH, NV, IA still holding for Obama
CO and NH probably going to Romney, but still might end up going for Obama
WI, PA, MI leaning towards Obama.
So as of today Obama has a small lead.

I have some minor quibbles with some of these as I see the race as more friendly to Obama than you do, but I have a major one with Michigan.  That state is safe Obama right now, with plenty of other non-targets likelier to become targets before Michigan if something causes the race to take a major lurch towards Romney.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

But Barack and Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and Obama for America have, between them, sent me twenty-one emails asking for money since Oct. 15. I don't think they're taking anything for granted, any more than the Romney people are.

I've gotten 3 since noon from Romney, et al.

I've gotten no campaign emails at all, so I win!