NV-PPP: Berkeley surges into a tie on strength of early voting

[Lief 🗽]

No numbers yet, but PPP tweets that the race is now a tie. Berkeley up 55-41 with early voters. They also tweet:

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New Poll: Nevada Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-24

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Gass3268]

Berkeley is going to win this

[Lief 🗽]

Berkeley is going to win this

Yup, I've been saying as much for months now.

[Gass3268]

Berkeley is going to win this

Yup, I've been saying as much for months now.

I've never changed my Senate prediction. Democratic strength in Nevada is always under-polled.   

[morgieb]

lol when we pick up seats despite being expected to lose our majority.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Actually, not buying this. Berkeley is corrupt and Heller has run an active campaign.

[BM]

Thank God. Berkeley will be a fantastic Senator. I don't even care that she's corrupt because she's a woman.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Berkeley is going to win this

Yup, I've been saying as much for months now.

I've never changed my Senate prediction. Democratic strength in Nevada is always under-polled.   

Yep. When it's tied, there's a Democratic advantage.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Not buying this unless other polls come out putting her down by only 1 or 2. Heller seems like the stronger candidate here.

[BM]

Heller is extremely overrated. He's not leading in polls because he's so beloved. It's because Berkeley is corrupt and unlikable, which makes me like her more to be honest.

The Democratic advantage will show on election day when the Berkeley support coalesces to a victory. At the very least the election will thankfully be stolen by the Reid machine for Berkeley.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Not buying this unless other polls come out putting her down by only 1 or 2. Heller seems like the stronger candidate here.

Same here, for now.

It's because Berkeley is corrupt and unlikable, which makes me like her more to be honest.

Huh?

[Mister Twister]

t's because Berkeley is corrupt and unlikable, which makes me like her more to be honest.

Disgusting.

[BM]

Women need to play by the same rules as men so it's just refreshing is all.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Women need to play by the same rules as men so it's just refreshing is all.

The alternatives would be men playing by the same rules as women or men and women both playing by a third, hopefully better set of rules.

[BM]

99% of female politicians are more ethical than their male counterparts. That's why I find Berkeley interesting. Both genders need their bad eggs. She might be fun to watch in the Senate because of her evil nature.

Her corruption issues aren't really that bad anyway.

[LiberalJunkie]

It will be great to see more Women in the senate.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

99% of female politicians are more ethical than their male counterparts. That's why I find Berkeley interesting. Both genders need their bad eggs. She might be fun to watch in the Senate because of her evil nature.

Interesting perspective, I'll give you that.

[Ogre Mage]

I'm not going to predict on this one because I find this race confusing and don't trust the data out there.  But I do think there is a good chance this race will be close and the large number of polls showing Berkley trailing by 6+ points are incorrect.  She has demographic changes, a superior turnout machine and a Presidential candidate who is a better fit for the state on her side.  But Heller has flayed her on the ethics scandal and I think he has run the better campaign.

A good sign -- I am reading reports that early turnout of Democrats in Clark County is very strong.

With regards to Berkley's ethics, admittedly she is not the model of an upstanding stateswoman we would want to put under a limelight.  But honestly, I don't think Berkley is particularly ... unusual in Nevada political culture.  In fact her issues look fairly garden-variety level.  I certainly don't think Handsome Harry is corruption free.  And who can forget former Gov. Jim Gibbons, lol.  Not every candidate can be St. Elizabeth.

One thing I have always appreciated about Berkley is that she has been a longstanding strong supporter of gay rights, which is a big difference with Heller.  Although some people joke that she looks like a drag queen.

[LiberalJunkie]

LOL whites thought Romney won the debate. Also Hispanics and African-Americans are more enthusiastic.

[Joe Republic]

Thank you, Ogre Mage, for spelling her name correctly.

I voted for Berkley on Monday.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

99% of female politicians are more ethical than their male counterparts. That's why I find Berkeley interesting. Both genders need their bad eggs. She might be fun to watch in the Senate because of her evil nature.

Her corruption issues aren't really that bad anyway.

That's actually kinda sexist.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada is the kind of State where I'd buy the dem outlier rather than the consensus.

[Ogre Mage]

Thank you, Ogre Mage, for spelling her name correctly.

I voted for Berkley on Monday.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

what does the thread title mean?  how does a candidate surge in a poll due to early voting?

[opebo]

99% of female politicians are more ethical than their male counterparts. That's why I find Berkeley interesting. Both genders need their bad eggs. She might be fun to watch in the Senate because of her evil nature.

I couldn't agree more!  (I support your point on an intellectual level but really the reason it touches home so much is I'm in a College made up of about 60% women and they're such a bunch of fake goody-goody, 'positive', socially conscious 'caring' profs it makes me sick.  Not a single dose of cynicism, skepticism, or facetiousness among the lot of them.  And it will probably come as no surprise they don't like me)

And by the way welcome to the forum - I was unaware there were any women here.  Breath of fresh air.