IL-13: Gill leads by 9

[DrScholl]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/110911030/IL-13-Anzalone-Liszt-for-DCCC-Oct-2012

Gill 48
Davis 39

[minionofmidas]

Three notes.

1. Compared to what you might call the received wisdom on his electability - or the fact that this is on the face of it the weakest of the districts the Dems are challenging for - Gill has not actually been polling any worse than the other competitive Democrats throughout the cycle.
2. I wonder whether this is due to any inherent deficiency in Rod Davis, maybe regarding the way he has been selected - or maybe the situation here is that the state Democrats (who're in full control after all) are unpopular and Congressional candidates tied to them, by having seats drawn for them for instance, are dragged down by that. For that very much excludes Gill.
3. 9 points? I'll believe that in mid-november but not before.

[muon2]

To be fair this is an internal poll, and the equivalent poll for the GOP is Davis (R) 43, Gill (D) 39, Hartman (I) 10, undecided 8. The DCCC poll doesn't seem to reflect the independent candidate, and in any case doesn't report it. With all the heavy negative advertising in this race, an unusually large I vote is possible. That happened with the Green vote in the 2006 IL Gov race.

[Lief 🗽]

To be fair this is an internal poll, and the equivalent poll for the GOP is Davis (R) 43, Gill (D) 39, Hartman (I) 10, undecided 8. The DCCC poll doesn't seem to reflect the independent candidate, and in any case doesn't report it. With all the heavy negative advertising in this race, an unusually large I vote is possible. That happened with the Green vote in the 2006 IL Gov race.

On the other hand, inflating the independent vote so the race looks closer than it is a common internal poll tactic.