Pharos Research Group: Polls for the US, FL, IN, MT, NE, ND, OH, PA

[Tender Branson]

US: 50-47 Obama

http://freepdfhosting.com/a4680414a1.pdf

FL: 47-47

http://freepdfhosting.com/5535595617.pdf

IN: 52-38 Romney

http://freepdfhosting.com/d252c1450a.pdf

MT: 48-41 Romney

http://freepdfhosting.com/50be9c1155.pdf

NE: 51-41 Romney

http://freepdfhosting.com/56f80acc61.pdf

ND: 49-39 Romney

http://freepdfhosting.com/8cd6fbb53b.pdf

OH: 50-45 Obama

http://freepdfhosting.com/dd707ff1ae.pdf

PA: 50-46 Obama

http://freepdfhosting.com/dd707ff1ae.pdf

All conducted by telephone among LV between Oct. 19-21.

[Tender Branson]

I have never heard of this pollster before but David Nir from DailyKos Elections has more:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/24/1149720/-What-s-the-deal-with-Pharos-Research-Group

Pollsters out of nowhere should be taken with a ton of salt.

[tmthforu94]

Ohio is certainly troubling - Romney's going to have to change things up if he wants to win it.

Nice to see more Indiana numbers - we should be getting back to pre-2008 levels soon.

[Marston]

None of these results look too outlandish, but yeah, I've never heard of them either.

[Tender Branson]

At least they polled some states that are heavily underpolled like IN, ND and NE.

[Tender Branson]

Obama also leads 48-41 in their San Diego poll.

How did the city of San Diego vote in the past ?

[Marston]

Obama also leads 48-41 in their San Diego poll.

How did the city of San Diego vote in the past ?

Well, San Diego County was like 54-44 Obama in 2008. San Diego City was something like 63-37 Obama, If I recall correctly.

[Miles]

Their Senate polls are a bit D-leaning, but the House and Gov polls check out well.

[wan]

Obama also leads 48-41 in their San Diego poll.

How did the city of San Diego vote in the past ?

Well, San Diego County was like 54-44 Obama in 2008. San Diego City was something like 63-37 Obama, If I recall correctly.

San Diego use to vote republican until Obama came about and he won them over.

[Eraserhead]

Well, taking this with a grain of salt but...

1. Looks like Obama really has crashed epically in Indiana vs. 2008.

2. If Nebraska is really that close, Obama should be able to steal that electoral vote again.

3. Pennsylvania is closer than Ohio. Romney is going to have to make some tough decisions about where to spend his time and money in these final days.

[Reds4]

I would be absolutely shocked if Obama did better in Ohio than in Pennsylvania on election day.. the demographics of Ohio just make it much more of a swing state.

[Sbane]

Obama also leads 48-41 in their San Diego poll.

How did the city of San Diego vote in the past ?

Well, San Diego County was like 54-44 Obama in 2008. San Diego City was something like 63-37 Obama, If I recall correctly.

San Diego use to vote republican until Obama came about and he won them over.

The city of San Diego voted Democrat way before that. You are correct about the county though. Obama winning the city by single digits is a very weak performance.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, taking this with a grain of salt but...

1. Looks like Obama really has crashed epically in Indiana vs. 2008.

2. If Nebraska is really that close, Obama should be able to steal that electoral vote again.

3. Pennsylvania is closer than Ohio. Romney is going to have to make some tough decisions about where to spend his time and money in these final days.

The idea that Ohio is going to be more than a two or three point win for Obama is ridiculous.  Reputable polls lately have put him at 46%, 47%, 48%, and 49% there.  He's not going to get that much mroe than 49% there. 

[President von Cat]

The idea that Ohio is going to be more than a two or three point win for Obama is ridiculous.  Reputable polls lately have put him at 46%, 47%, 48%, and 49% there.  He's not going to get that much mroe than 49% there.  

It really isn't that unreasonable.

The auto bailout saved a lot of jobs in Ohio, a major plus for Obama in the state. He can credibly point to preventing a statewide depression.

And given how big a role manufacturing plays in the state, the Bain/outsourcing attacks on Romney have proven to be very effective. He is a poor match for the state, probably the worst in a generation.

[opebo]

I would be absolutely shocked if Obama did better in Ohio than in Pennsylvania on election day.. the demographics of Ohio just make it much more of a swing state.

That's right.  However demographics are not everything - economic and cultural conditions are important as well:

I do think that Pennsylvania will tighten more vis-a-vis 2008 than Ohio, not due to demographic factors but due to subtle differences among white swing voters in each state mostly based on their perceptions of industrial jobs and yes economic class.  Still, PA should give Obama a higher margin than OH, one would expect.

[Mr.Phips]

The idea that Ohio is going to be more than a two or three point win for Obama is ridiculous.  Reputable polls lately have put him at 46%, 47%, 48%, and 49% there.  He's not going to get that much mroe than 49% there.  

It really isn't that unreasonable.

The auto bailout saved a lot of jobs in Ohio, a major plus for Obama in the state. He can credibly point to preventing a statewide depression.

And given how big a role manufacturing plays in the state, the Bain/outsourcing attacks on Romney have proven to be very effective. He is a poor match for the state, probably the worst in a generation.

Obama's a pretty terrible fit for the state as well.  A black liberal in a mostly socially conservative, white state. 

[opebo]

The auto bailout saved a lot of jobs in Ohio, a major plus for Obama in the state. He can credibly point to preventing a statewide depression.

And given how big a role manufacturing plays in the state, the Bain/outsourcing attacks on Romney have proven to be very effective. He is a poor match for the state, probably the worst in a generation.

Obama's a pretty terrible fit for the state as well.  A black liberal in a mostly socially conservative, white state. 

Well, you're definitely right that being black is a HUGE handicap for him in Ohio, but he's not that liberal and Sherrod Brown, who is arguable far more liberal than Obama, is winning the senate seat again pretty well.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney is a good candidate for the GOP to win back parts of SoCal (including SD County), as well as many other affluent Sunbelt and Northeast areas where Obama overperformed for a Democrat in 08.

[pbrower2a]

Well, taking this with a grain of salt but...

1. Looks like Obama really has crashed epically in Indiana vs. 2008.

2. If Nebraska is really that close, Obama should be able to steal that electoral vote again.

3. Pennsylvania is closer than Ohio. Romney is going to have to make some tough decisions about where to spend his time and money in these final days.

If this pollster is good, then

(1) The difference between Obama winning Indiana in 2008 and losing it in 2012 is that as a challenger basing his campaign in Illinois, Senator Obama could campaign heavily and early in Indiana as no Democratic nominee has done in the age of jet travel.

Indiana is typically about R+11, and Democrats usually win nationally if they lose the state by 'only' 10%. But if they lose the state by 15% or so, they usually lose nationally. Barack Obama was able to campaign in Indiana almost as if he were a Favorite Son because the state was unusually easy for him to campaign in -- and campaigning in Illinois was pointless. In 2012 campaigning in Indiana from Washington DC was a high risk with a low reward.

Before Obama, the last Democratic nominee to even come close to winning Indiana in a non-blowout election was Harry Truman in 1948, and that was when Truman made his whistle-stop campaign on the railroad and made an unusual number of stops in Indiana because it was on the way.

Kerry lost the state by 20, Gore by 15, Clinton by 2 (1992) and 6 (1996), Dukakis by 20, Mondale by 24,  Carter by 8 (1976) and 19 (1980), McGovern by almost 33, and Humphrey by 12.  LBJ won it in a landslide, and Kennedy lost it by only 7. Democrats who lose the state by 10 or less, let alone win it, are going to win nationally. (Third-party nominees may have chipped away at R votes in 1968, 1992, and 1996.

Indiana is in its own way a swing state. It may be reliably R, but Republicans have to win it by a large margin to have a chance nationally. Don't be surprised to find that the state tightens up on the Presidential and even the gubernatorial race in the aftermath of some absurdly anti-feminist statements of the Senatorial candidate.   

(2) the Nebraska result is much closer than I could expect.

(3) Could it be that :

I. Pennsylvania does not rely as much upon the auto industry as does Ohio? That could make Ohio comparatively more favorable to President Obama this time. Romney could be a better match for Pennsylvania than for Ohio this time.

2. Pennsylvania has a regional split. The D areas are of course the I-476 corridor (Scranton to Philadelphia and Chester) and Pittsburgh. The remainder of the state might as well be Kentucky, with places like Erie, State College, and Harrisburg being outliers.  Urban growth in Pennsylvania has been slow, and many rural areas have much the same culture as southern Appalachia. "Coal" areas are beginning to vote like "oil" areas, especially as coal tycoons have been putting the squeeze on miners for their votes. Pennsylvania more heavily relies upon coal for jobs than does Ohio. I expect Mitt Romney's buddies in the coal industry to do much dirty political work on his behalf to bully the people who do some of the most literally dirty work in America to vote for him.

....

Newcomer polls can be good if all goes well (and by 'good' that does not mean that they get expected results). They are easy to discount if they get weird results. More of a hazard is if the polls are 'too good to be true'.

[Cliffy]

GIGO

[pbrower2a]

GIGO

The problem is that we don't know what the garbage is. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The auto bailout saved a lot of jobs in Ohio, a major plus for Obama in the state. He can credibly point to preventing a statewide depression.

And given how big a role manufacturing plays in the state, the Bain/outsourcing attacks on Romney have proven to be very effective. He is a poor match for the state, probably the worst in a generation.

Obama's a pretty terrible fit for the state as well.  A black liberal in a mostly socially conservative, white state. 

Well, you're definitely right that being black is a HUGE handicap for him in Ohio, but he's not that liberal and Sherrod Brown, who is arguable far more liberal than Obama, is winning the senate seat again pretty well.

There are parts of Ohio that Obama fits quite well. I can't think of much of Ohio that Romney fits.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Seems legit, though I've never heard of this pollster.