PPP NC: Tied.

[Mister Twister]

North Carolina is TIED? Looks like the Romney firewall is being extinguished

[J. J.]

There was one tweet, and, if accurate, one buy on a single station.  http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-north-carolina-poll-early-voting-election-2012-10

The superpac has pulled out. 

[Likely Voter]

Obama NC ad buy week ending....

10/22: $959k
10/29: $1,185k
http://nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620

Yes clearly Obama is pulling out using the trick of spending more money.

As for his SuperPAC, they havent ever spent in NC

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Rasmussen had Romney up 6 in NC- still far less than 2004 even with its house effect. I'd bet on Mitt winning something along the lines of 51-47.5 here.

Everytime you post a prediction you seem to have a good grasp on the state of the race.  Good stuff, guy.  If only your username wasn't a clear reference to the god damned NJ Devils.

[J. J.]

Obama NC ad buy week ending....

10/22: $959k
10/29: $1,185k
http://nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620

Yes clearly Obama is pulling out using the trick of spending more money.

As for his SuperPAC, they havent ever spent in NC

He's not spending a lot, and it was after some decreases. 

They also are not showing everything; Obama was on the radio here as of yesterday, and nothing is showing. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Rasmussen had Romney up 6 in NC- still far less than 2004 even with its house effect. I'd bet on Mitt winning something along the lines of 51-47.5 here.

Everytime you post a prediction you seem to have a good grasp on the state of the race.  Good stuff, guy.  If only your username wasn't a clear reference to the god damned NJ Devils.

Of course they're god damned — they're from New Jersey.

[Eraserhead]

NC is one state where I might expect PPP to paint a slightly less than accurate picture.

[Minnesota Mike]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Huh?

Democratic turnout at this point in the cycle:

2012- 502,855
2008- 447,956

How does that translate into D turnout running well behind 2008?

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/2994568007/

[Badger]

NC is one state where I might expect PPP to paint a slightly less than accurate picture.

As another poster put it well:

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Obama + 1
Result: Obama + 0

PPP - NC, 10-31-10: Burr + 12
Result: Burr + 12

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Hagan + 3
Result: Hagan + 8

PPP - NC, 10-26-08: Perdue + 3
Result: Perdue + 3

What's your reasoning here, Eraserhead?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Actually, if there's any pollster I trust for NC, it's PPP...

[Cliffy]

My sig. is just for threads like this

[J. J.]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Huh?

Democratic turnout at this point in the cycle:

2012- 502,855
2008- 447,956

How does that translate into D turnout running well behind 2008?

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/2994568007/

This day in 2008:

D  533,384  55.92%
R  259,813  27.24%
U  160,069  16.78%

Yesterday:

D  502,855   50.7%
R  302,684   30.52%
U  184,505   18.6%

D's are down 33,000 while R's are up 43,000.  That is a net loss of 77,000 votes, and this is a period where D's are voting heavier.  

[Minnesota Mike]

No way this can be true, J.J. told me NC was gone for Obama.

It isn't.  D turnout is running well behind 2008.  In theory, Obama could be tied in early voting, but that would be a disaster for him.

Huh?

Democratic turnout at this point in the cycle:

2012- 502,855
2008- 447,956

How does that translate into D turnout running well behind 2008?

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/2994568007/

This day in 2008:

D  533,384  55.92%
R  259,813  27.24%
U  160,069  16.78%

Yesterday:

D  502,855   50.7%
R  302,684   30.52%
U  184,505   18.6%

D's are down 33,000 while R's are up 43,000.  That is a net loss of 77,000 votes, and this is a period where D's are voting heavier.  

I believe there is a glitch in the Civitas system. Once midnight rolled around their 4 years ago page changed but not their current one. You have to wait until after yesterdays totals are added in the morning to get a true comparison.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

My sig. is just for threads like this

You ever consider Bergala could have been spewing out disinformation?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My sig. is just for threads like this

You ever consider Bergala could have been spewing out disinformation?

Or overreacting? Which granted is a habit Atlas users are truly unfamiliar with...

[Devils30]

The Civitas Poll suggested Mitt may have closed up shop a little early here. I just don't see how Obama can lose NC by 1-3 and NOT win Virginia.

[Cliffy]

Good grief people if Romney isn't worrid about NC it isn't close. It's real simple. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Good grief people if Romney isn't worrid about NC it isn't close. It's real simple. 

Romney can't afford to be worried about North Carolina.  He has so thin a margin for a possible victory he has to hope he can keep it by grade B effort because he needs to give a grade A effort in so many other states.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, if Romney can't win OH FL VA CO it doesn't matter who wins NC.

[J. J.]

I believe there is a glitch in the Civitas system. Once midnight rolled around their 4 years ago page changed but not their current one. You have to wait until after yesterdays totals are added in the morning to get a true comparison.

Well, I was looking at the dates and using Carolina Transparency.