Grove Insight/PNA (D): Obama leads in FL and CO in brand-new polls

[Tender Branson]

600 LV, Oct. 23-24:

FL: 47-45 Obama

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/GroveFL102512.pdf

500 LV, Oct. 23-24:

CO: 46-43 Obama

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/GroveCO102512.pdf

[Gass3268]

The Romney campgain is free falling as we speak!

[Yank2133]

FL is tied at best IMO.

[Tender Branson]

Grove was not bad in 2008, but they didn't poll a lot.

They said O+13 in Oregon. McCain+4 in AZ.

But like almost any other pollster, they blew NV, predicting Obama by just 4.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is there a real chance Obama might win all the states he won last time?

I know Indiana looks weak, but the Mourdock situation can't be helping Romney.

[Umengus]

Obama wins independents by 16 in FL... no

[dirks]

Is there a real chance Obama might win all the states he won last time?

I know Indiana looks weak, but the Mourdock situation can't be helping Romney.

Indiana is long gone and Obama has already pulled out of NC. He also might lose NH and he is behind in Colorado. WI and FLA are probably 50/50 and OH is lean Obama

he could win 'em all(aside from IN)....or lose 'em all.

[Yank2133]

Is there a real chance Obama might win all the states he won last time?

I know Indiana looks weak, but the Mourdock situation can't be helping Romney.

He isn't winning Indiana period.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is there a real chance Obama might win all the states he won last time?

I know Indiana looks weak, but the Mourdock situation can't be helping Romney.

He isn't winning Indiana period.

The way things are going, he might.

[dirks]

Is there a real chance Obama might win all the states he won last time?

I know Indiana looks weak, but the Mourdock situation can't be helping Romney.

He isn't winning Indiana period.

The way things are going, he might.

you're crazy...no chance of Romney losing Indiana. Obama is not even contesting the state (and wisely so)

[Lief 🗽]

Obama has not pulled out of North Carolina. That is a lie. Stop lying.

[Yank2133]

Is there a real chance Obama might win all the states he won last time?

I know Indiana looks weak, but the Mourdock situation can't be helping Romney.

He isn't winning Indiana period.

The way things are going, he might.

Romney is up double digits there.....too little too late.

[Cliffy]

Yawn.....

[dirks]

Obama has not pulled out of North Carolina. That is a lie. Stop lying.

they have conceded it

http://washingtonexaminer.com/team-obama-n.c.-gone.-is-va.-next/article/2511495#.UImO_cWjxTL

[Lief 🗽]

Obama has not pulled out of North Carolina. That is a lie. Stop lying.

they have conceded it

http://washingtonexaminer.com/team-obama-n.c.-gone.-is-va.-next/article/2511495#.UImO_cWjxTL

No, what Begala said was just personal conjecture. The Obama campaign is still spending money and running ads there and still has field offices and staff. They have not conceded it. And please find better sources than the Washington Examiner next time.

[ajb]

Obama has not pulled out of North Carolina. That is a lie. Stop lying.

they have conceded it

http://washingtonexaminer.com/team-obama-n.c.-gone.-is-va.-next/article/2511495#.UImO_cWjxTL

No, what Begala said was just personal conjecture. The Obama campaign is still spending money and running ads there and still has field offices and staff. They have not conceded it. And please find better sources than the Washington Examiner next time.

And Begala retracted those remarks, emphasizing that he had spoken earlier without having spoken directly to the Obama campaign, and that he was glad to see that the campaign was still contesting NC:

http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/paul_begala_walks_back_comment_about_obama_writing_off_nc

[Badger]

Obama has not pulled out of North Carolina. That is a lie. Stop lying.

they have conceded it

http://washingtonexaminer.com/team-obama-n.c.-gone.-is-va.-next/article/2511495#.UImO_cWjxTL

No, what Begala said was just personal conjecture. The Obama campaign is still spending money and running ads there and still has field offices and staff. They have not conceded it. And please find better sources than the Washington Examiner next time.

Are they running ad time there? When's the last time Obama or Biden (or their spouses) have visited?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Obama has not pulled out of North Carolina. That is a lie. Stop lying.

they have conceded it

http://washingtonexaminer.com/team-obama-n.c.-gone.-is-va.-next/article/2511495#.UImO_cWjxTL

No, what Begala said was just personal conjecture. The Obama campaign is still spending money and running ads there and still has field offices and staff. They have not conceded it. And please find better sources than the Washington Examiner next time.

Are they running ad time there? When's the last time Obama or Biden (or their spouses) have visited?

Actually Obama increased his ad spending in North Carolina.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama hasn't visited North Carolina since the convention, but the same is true of Romney for Wisconsin and New Hampshire and no one's saying he's pulled out of those states.

[colincb]

Dems have added ad time for NC and Indiana's long gone.

[Ljube]

These polls have biased questions. It seems that they are polls of some focus groups rather than the electorate.

[Badger]

Actually Obama increased his ad spending in North Carolina.

Really? Increased compared to when? I'm intrigued. Have a link?

Obama hasn't visited North Carolina since the convention, but the same is true of Romney for Wisconsin and New Hampshire and no one's saying he's pulled out of those states.

Ryan's campaigned in WI I believe (for obvious reasons). Not sure about NH. Has Biden at least been to NC since the DNC?

Basically a good point though.

My own two cents: Obama hasn't given up entirely on NC as the numbers are still close, but Romney is definitely in the lead and there are just too many other states in pure toss-up status to warrant putting a substantial investment of "full battleground state" level resources. IF Obama gets a last minute national surge of a couple points nationally which translates into putting NC back into immediate contention, then and only then will you see a full-scale blitz from Team Obama. Baring that type of a shift, though, the Democrats will keep the ground game in NC alive enough to keep Romney from being able to fully shift his own resouces elsewhere, and that's it. Likewise, NC is on the top of list of states Democrats will otherwise eventualy triage in the next week or so.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Actually Obama increased his ad spending in North Carolina.

Really? Increased compared to when? I'm intrigued. Have a link?

Jonathan Kappler, a local political analyst and blogger mentioned on twitter that Obama increased spending this week at the local Raleigh TV station by 145%.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Actually Obama increased his ad spending in North Carolina.

Really? Increased compared to when? I'm intrigued. Have a link?

Obama hasn't visited North Carolina since the convention, but the same is true of Romney for Wisconsin and New Hampshire and no one's saying he's pulled out of those states.

Ryan's campaigned in WI I believe (for obvious reasons). Not sure about NH. Has Biden at least been to NC since the DNC?

Basically a good point though.

My own two cents: Obama hasn't given up entirely on NC as the numbers are still close, but Romney is definitely in the lead and there are just too many other states in pure toss-up status to warrant putting a substantial investment of "full battleground state" level resources. IF Obama gets a last minute national surge of a couple points nationally which translates into putting NC back into immediate contention, then and only then will you see a full-scale blitz from Team Obama. Baring that type of a shift, though, the Democrats will keep the ground game in NC alive enough to keep Romney from being able to fully shift his own resources elsewhere, and that's it. Likewise, NC is on the top of list of states Democrats will otherwise eventually triage in the next week or so.

I disagree.  If Obama surges enough that he can afford to spend time in states beyond his firewall, he won't be coming to North Carolina.  At that point he'll be looking to spend time helping out down ballot races and with no Senate seat here and McCrory a lock for Governor, there's no coat tails for him to spread in the Tarheel State.  That downballot effect is probably why both campaigns are still bothering with Nevada even tho that looks to be about as much in Obama's corner as North Carolina is in Romney's.

[Badger]

Actually Obama increased his ad spending in North Carolina.

Really? Increased compared to when? I'm intrigued. Have a link?

Obama hasn't visited North Carolina since the convention, but the same is true of Romney for Wisconsin and New Hampshire and no one's saying he's pulled out of those states.

Ryan's campaigned in WI I believe (for obvious reasons). Not sure about NH. Has Biden at least been to NC since the DNC?

Basically a good point though.

My own two cents: Obama hasn't given up entirely on NC as the numbers are still close, but Romney is definitely in the lead and there are just too many other states in pure toss-up status to warrant putting a substantial investment of "full battleground state" level resources. IF Obama gets a last minute national surge of a couple points nationally which translates into putting NC back into immediate contention, then and only then will you see a full-scale blitz from Team Obama. Baring that type of a shift, though, the Democrats will keep the ground game in NC alive enough to keep Romney from being able to fully shift his own resources elsewhere, and that's it. Likewise, NC is on the top of list of states Democrats will otherwise eventually triage in the next week or so.

I disagree.  If Obama surges enough that he can afford to spend time in states beyond his firewall, he won't be coming to North Carolina.  At that point he'll be looking to spend time helping out down ballot races and with no Senate seat here and McCrory a lock for Governor, there's no coat tails for him to spread in the Tarheel State.  That downballot effect is probably why both campaigns are still bothering with Nevada even tho that looks to be about as much in Obama's corner as North Carolina is in Romney's.

Good analysis, Ernest. I also considered the lack of competative downballot races in characterizing NC as the most likely state to be triaged in the next week.

You make a good point, but I'm not sure if NC isn't in play Obama won't make a serious play for it, if only to absolutely force Romney to spend more resources there which HE in turn can't use to help down ballot Republicans in other states.

Quite the chess game, eh?