AZ: Rasmussen: Romney +8
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Author Topic: AZ: Rasmussen: Romney +8  (Read 2379 times)
Miles
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« on: October 25, 2012, 04:33:22 PM »

Article.

Romney- 52%
Obama- 44%
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2012, 04:35:42 PM »

Adjusting for Rassy's house effect, that sounds about right.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2012, 04:40:48 PM »

New Poll: Arizona President by Rasmussen on 2012-10-25

Summary: D: 44%, R: 52%, I: 2%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2012, 04:41:29 PM »

Arizona will be close.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2012, 04:42:35 PM »

Now we know the Colorado poll was bullsh**t earlier in the week. No way there's a two point difference between these states.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2012, 06:11:44 PM »

Great news! Considering it's Rasmussen we're talking about, the state is only slight Romney.
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Holmes
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2012, 06:12:49 PM »

Obama's not gonna win it though.
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BM
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2012, 06:13:47 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2012, 06:16:07 PM »

With the two point bias to Republicans plus the two-point under sampling of Hispanics in automated polling, I'd say Romney 50-46
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2012, 08:10:16 PM »

53-46 Romney when all said and done.  Too many olds for Obama to get this one truly into the tossup column. 
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CountryRoads
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2012, 08:12:53 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state


....wow. Um...I dont know how to respond this
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sg0508
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2012, 08:37:42 PM »


I'm guessing a similar result as 2008, 53-45%
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2012, 08:45:20 PM »

The Democrats in here seem unusually confident that this is a far-fetched range, but it looks about right for me. It might end just a small tad tighter than this.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2012, 08:47:05 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state

If you wanna say something flagrant at least use proper terminology. Naturalize is the term you're looking for.
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opebo
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2012, 04:09:31 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state

....wow. Um...I dont know how to respond this

Better get used to it or hope your party does something about it, because you really do have a severe demographic problem in the medium term.

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BM
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2012, 04:33:10 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state

If you wanna say something flagrant at least use proper terminology. Naturalize is the term you're looking for.
I know citizenize isn't a real word but I used it anyway. What a nerd to try to correct me.

And sorry but the truth hurts. As long as the GOP continues its anti-Mexican rhetoric, it will be the minority party and its numbers will get much worse when everyone in this country rightfully becomes a citizen. I actually believe that is the right policy so I'm not just supporting it for political gain, although that is definitely an added bonus. Texas and Arizona being competitive will destroy the GOP.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2012, 11:13:49 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state

If you wanna say something flagrant at least use proper terminology. Naturalize is the term you're looking for.
I know citizenize isn't a real word but I used it anyway. What a nerd to try to correct me.

And sorry but the truth hurts. As long as the GOP continues its anti-Mexican rhetoric, it will be the minority party and its numbers will get much worse when everyone in this country rightfully becomes a citizen. I actually believe that is the right policy so I'm not just supporting it for political gain, although that is definitely an added bonus. Texas and Arizona being competitive will destroy the GOP.
The proper term is "liberation" from white majority.
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Orion0
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2012, 02:06:04 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state

If you wanna say something flagrant at least use proper terminology. Naturalize is the term you're looking for.
I know citizenize isn't a real word but I used it anyway. What a nerd to try to correct me.

And sorry but the truth hurts. As long as the GOP continues its anti-Mexican rhetoric, it will be the minority party and its numbers will get much worse when everyone in this country rightfully becomes a citizen. I actually believe that is the right policy so I'm not just supporting it for political gain, although that is definitely an added bonus. Texas and Arizona being competitive will destroy the GOP.

Ha. Ha. Ha. Spend some time in Arizona, every naturalized person of Hispanic descent in Arizona is off-set by retiring northerners (esp from Alberta) who trend republican. It would take a lot to shift that dynamic in any major way. Texas is a different case, but again I think it has much the same dynamics as Alberta, where despite the varying backgrounds of people, they become more conservative as a result of being steeped in it once they get there. (the centre as it were is pushed to the right as a result of the culture there)
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greenforest32
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2012, 02:25:21 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state

If you wanna say something flagrant at least use proper terminology. Naturalize is the term you're looking for.
I know citizenize isn't a real word but I used it anyway. What a nerd to try to correct me.

And sorry but the truth hurts. As long as the GOP continues its anti-Mexican rhetoric, it will be the minority party and its numbers will get much worse when everyone in this country rightfully becomes a citizen. I actually believe that is the right policy so I'm not just supporting it for political gain, although that is definitely an added bonus. Texas and Arizona being competitive will destroy the GOP.

Ha. Ha. Ha. Spend some time in Arizona, every naturalized person of Hispanic descent in Arizona is off-set by retiring northerners (esp from Alberta) who trend republican. It would take a lot to shift that dynamic in any major way. Texas is a different case, but again I think it has much the same dynamics as Alberta, where despite the varying backgrounds of people, they become more conservative as a result of being steeped in it once they get there. (the centre as it were is pushed to the right as a result of the culture there)

Not really: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/why-arizona-isnt-a-battleground-state-and-why-it-may-be-soon/

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Arizona can probably flip, even without comprehensive immigration reform that grants citizenship. 2012 Arizona is going to look awfully similar to 2004 Nevada/Colorado.
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2012, 02:33:22 PM »

During Obama's dominate September, I predicted that Romney would win this state 52%-47%. Romney will definitely do better on election day.

Probably this...
Romney - 53%
Obama - 46%
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Orion0
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2012, 03:22:23 PM »

Arizona will probably go to Romney this time, but once Obama citizenizes all Mexicans in the country, it'll be a comfortably Democratic state

If you wanna say something flagrant at least use proper terminology. Naturalize is the term you're looking for.
I know citizenize isn't a real word but I used it anyway. What a nerd to try to correct me.

And sorry but the truth hurts. As long as the GOP continues its anti-Mexican rhetoric, it will be the minority party and its numbers will get much worse when everyone in this country rightfully becomes a citizen. I actually believe that is the right policy so I'm not just supporting it for political gain, although that is definitely an added bonus. Texas and Arizona being competitive will destroy the GOP.

Ha. Ha. Ha. Spend some time in Arizona, every naturalized person of Hispanic descent in Arizona is off-set by retiring northerners (esp from Alberta) who trend republican. It would take a lot to shift that dynamic in any major way. Texas is a different case, but again I think it has much the same dynamics as Alberta, where despite the varying backgrounds of people, they become more conservative as a result of being steeped in it once they get there. (the centre as it were is pushed to the right as a result of the culture there)

Not really: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/why-arizona-isnt-a-battleground-state-and-why-it-may-be-soon/

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Arizona can probably flip, even without comprehensive immigration reform that grants citizenship. 2012 Arizona is going to look awfully similar to 2004 Nevada/Colorado.

Lol at taking 538 at face value. It's as objective as fox news, so there's that. And also in that article it says that Arizona "isnt that near" the tipping point. Arizona still has 4 out of the 10 cities with greatest population % over 65, and is second only to Florida in attracting retired people. As immigration from Mexico slows (as it has been for a while now) its possible that Latino % of the population will stabilize or decline relative to the influx of older people. I would say Arizona won't look like colorado until 20 or 24, if it ever does that is.
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