NBC/Marist: CO: tied. NV: O+3

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

better polls for Romney than earlier.  CO still a weak spot for Obama, been that way for a looonnngggg time. 

[dirks]

NV is a tease for Romney...time to pull all resources out

[Likely Voter]

CO continues to poll close the the national avg. NBC's latest national poll was also a tie.  NV remains part of the Obama firewall.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

CO continues to poll close the the national avg. NBC's latest national poll was also a tie.  NV remains part of the Obama firewall.

It's down to Ohio, Obama has WI and NV in the bag.  He wins Ohio and it's over.

[Ty440]

better polls for Romney than earlier.  CO still a weak spot for Obama, been that way for a looonnngggg time. 

Yea, what is up out there? Suburban moderates warming to Romney? Hopefully there is a hidden Latino vote not being polled.

[Lief 🗽]

The fact that CO and VA appear to be the closest states instead of OH, WI or NV tells you all you need to know about this election.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

better polls for Romney than earlier.  CO still a weak spot for Obama, been that way for a looonnngggg time. 

Yea, what is up out there? Suburban moderates warming to Romney? Hopefully there is a hidden Latino vote not being polled.

I can't say for sure, but Obama's approval hit the skids out in Colorado way before the rest of the country.  Probably libertarian-leaning Republicans who have been voting that way forever and took a flier on Obama in 2008.  Maybe someone who knows a bit more about CO could bring something substantive to the convo, because I don't really know for sure why NM and NV seem so solid for him and CO is on the brink of swinging 10 pts away while it's presumably becoming more diverse and Democratic. 

I think he holds on, but it's not going to be anywhere near the 9 pt spread he enjoyed in 2008, obviously.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

better polls for Romney than earlier.  CO still a weak spot for Obama, been that way for a looonnngggg time. 

Yea, what is up out there? Suburban moderates warming to Romney? Hopefully there is a hidden Latino vote not being polled.

I can't say for sure, but Obama's approval hit the skids out in Colorado way before the rest of the country.  Probably libertarian-leaning Republicans who have been voting that way forever and took a flier on Obama in 2008.  Maybe someone who knows a bit more about CO could bring something substantive to the convo, because I don't really know for sure why NM and NV seem so solid for him and CO is on the brink of swinging 10 pts away while it's presumably becoming more diverse and Democratic. 

I think he holds on, but it's not going to be anywhere near the 9 pt spread he enjoyed in 2008, obviously.

I think that's it. People for some reason are under the impression that Colorado is like Nevada and New Mexico. But Colorado has more GOP-Leaning indies than NV and NM. And it has way more whites there than the other two. It's demographics are changing, but not quick enough to make it as D-Leaning as its sister states in The West.

[Sbane]

There are a lot of white independents in Colorado, which is why it is trending Republican. I also wouldn't be surprised if the entire west, excluding Arizona, trends Republican.

[Devils30]

I think the polls might still be underestimating Obama in the west. Could see him winning NV by 6 and CO by 3 for instance. In both 2008,2010 this happened and not in other regions.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think the polls might still be underestimating Obama in the west. Could see him winning NV by 6 and CO by 3 for instance. In both 2008,2010 this happened and not in other regions.

CO is right around the nat'l average and I have Obama winning the PV by 3.5 when all said and done, so I think you are right.  NV will be a bit higher... 54-45 perhaps. 

[Likely Voter]

If Obama can hold CO he has a pretty easy path to win even if he loses FL, OH, VA and NC.  So this issue of if Latinos are underpolling like 2008 and 2010 is a big one.

[Ljube]

If Obama can hold CO he has a pretty easy path to win even if he loses FL, OH, VA and NC.  So this issue of if Latinos are underpolling like 2008 and 2010 is a big one.

He can also lose NH, so it's not that easy (3-2-1).

[pepper11]

This is good and bad. The numbers seem right and I think Romney will win CO, but this makes Marist Ohio numbers seem legit. 

[Cliffy]

NV is still the toughest for Romney, he's within three with a reasonable (for one of the terrible three) turnout of D+6 vs D+8 in 08.  04 was R+4, so we'll see I bet it's closer to D+2 at best. Racial demographics at least look realistic too, unlike alot of polls where the demographics are manipulated to show turnouts similar to 08.  All in all Romney is within 3 there, I think NV will be real close, Mccain gave up on NV last time, Romney is not you won't get the turnout you think. Be real close.

CO, Turnout D+1, not going to happen, in 08 it was R+1 and in 04 it was R+9. Racial demos are also off in this poll vs 08.  At worst/best it'll be R+4 this time, Romney has CO in the bag. Romney by 5

[Kalimantan]

NV is still the toughest for Romney, he's within three with a reasonable (for one of the terrible three) turnout of D+6 vs D+8 in 08.  04 was R+4, so we'll see I bet it's closer to D+2 at best. Racial demographics at least look realistic too, unlike alot of polls where the demographics are manipulated to show turnouts similar to 08.  All in all Romney is within 3 there, I think NV will be real close, Mccain gave up on NV last time, Romney is not you won't get the turnout you think. Be real close.

CO, Turnout D+1, not going to happen, in 08 it was R+1 and in 04 it was R+9. Racial demos are also off in this poll vs 08.  At worst/best it'll be R+4 this time, Romney has CO in the bag. Romney by 5

I wish you'd still be here after the election but sadly I know you'll disappear and never return

[Eraserhead]

NV is pretty much out of the question for Romney.

CO is a complete tossup. Gun to my head, I'd give it to Romney... but there'd be about a 49% of a bullet going through my brain.

[5280]

based on early voting released from the CO SOS, Romney should win this no problem. They're ahead by 20k votes or so.