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  NM: Public Policy Polling: Heinrich continues to have a wide lead
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Author Topic: NM: Public Policy Polling: Heinrich continues to have a wide lead  (Read 494 times)
Lief 🐋
Lief
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« on: October 26, 2012, 03:15:35 pm »

New Poll: New Mexico Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-25

Summary: D: 52%, R: 44%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2012, 03:43:55 pm »

Heinrich-Webb 2016!
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BM
BeccaM
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2012, 04:09:29 pm »

Webb? Unnecessary.

Heinrich-Berkley would make a better ticket, although I would prefer the other way around.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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P P
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2012, 09:16:53 pm »

I can't get myself to understand why Nate's model only gives him 93-94% of odds. He's as much as a shoe-in as Nelson at this point.
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2012, 07:12:30 am »

Cool.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2012, 08:35:05 am »

The margin makes me believe Gary Johnson should have run for this.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2012, 09:45:40 am »

I can't get myself to understand why Nate's model only gives him 93-94% of odds. He's as much as a shoe-in as Nelson at this point.

NM has swung to the Democrats quite fast, and so his 'state fundamentals' don't quite understand this and project a fundamental result as being a D+2 result. The adjusted polling average is D+12, which is given more weight, (his projection is D+9), but the model adds uncertainty the higher the discrepancy between the fundamentals and the APA is (I forget when he said this, but apparently frequently one or the other is right, rather than a figure in the middle, adding uncertainty). If the APA is right, Wilson could still win with a late surge. In Florida the APA and the fundamentals are the same (D+8), so there's a great deal of certainty.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2012, 10:37:26 am »


I prefer Heinrich-Schweitzer 2016; the West will rise!
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