I can't get myself to understand why Nate's model only gives him 93-94% of odds. He's as much as a shoe-in as Nelson at this point.
NM has swung to the Democrats quite fast, and so his 'state fundamentals' don't quite understand this and project a fundamental result as being a D+2 result. The adjusted polling average is D+12, which is given more weight, (his projection is D+9), but the model adds uncertainty the higher the discrepancy between the fundamentals and the APA is (I forget when he said this, but apparently frequently one or the other is right, rather than a figure in the middle, adding uncertainty). If the APA is right, Wilson could still win with a late surge. In Florida the APA and the fundamentals are the same (D+8), so there's a great deal of certainty.
