Has Ohio's PVI Really Moved 5+ Points to D?

[SirMuxALot]

Speaking in terms of a state equivalent of Cook's PVI, Ohio historically has been:

2008: R+2.7
2004: D+0.4
2000: R+4.0
1996: R+2.2
Last 4 avg: R+2.1

The current polls are telling us it will be D+3.2 on election day 2012.  That is a 5 point PVI shift between Presidential cycles.  That is huge.  Is this even plausible in a state that has one of the lowest population growth rates in the union? (47/50 based on 2010-11 numbers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_growth_rate )

I'm having trouble trying to figure out what in the underlying demographics could support this.

[BM]

Yes, the Republican Party has been alienating people from all ends of the political spectrum over the last 4 years. It's their Waterloo.

[Lief 🗽]

Not all states are as elastic as the country as a whole is. Something similar will happen in North Carolina, which will go from R+7 to R+1 or so.

[Ty440]

Look it Indiana ,  In 2008 it went from like R+19 to  R+6

A 13 point swing.

[Likely Voter]

In 2010 if you asked me what Obama's path to victory would look like, it would have been holding the Gore/Kerry states plus CO, NV and maybe VA.  But OH has turned into a special case. There are two indicators of how Ohio is different for the GOP in 2012 and especially for Romney.This and especially this

I think if Obama was running against any other Republican, Ohio would likely be closer to the national avg.

[Lief 🗽]

This is a good article about why Obama is still winning Ohio despite demographic shifts that should be hurting him: http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109058/battleground-states-follow-their-demographics-except-ohio

[Mehmentum]

This is a good article about why Obama is still winning Ohio despite demographic shifts that should be hurting him: http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109058/battleground-states-follow-their-demographics-except-ohio

Not really.  It shows THAT Obama is doing better in Ohio than he should given demographics, but not why.

[traininthedistance]

I'm having trouble trying to figure out what in the underlying demographics could support this.

I can sum it up in four words: "Let Detroit go bankrupt."  The auto bailouts, and more generally Obama's push towards focusing on manufacturing growth, are particularly important here.

[Orion0]

Yes, the Republican Party has been alienating people from all ends of the political spectrum over the last 4 years. It's their Waterloo.

You really have no stupid filter do you? If they alienated everyone why is this year significantly closer than 2008? If any year was Waterloo it was 08.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not unlike the state-by-state battles in the Civil War, Ohio is very torn right now whether or not they believe the slaves should be free, or if Dixie must rise again. But they're slowly starting to come around to those of us living in 2012.

[Ty440]

Not unlike the state-by-state battles in the Civil War, Ohio is very torn right now whether or not they believe the slaves should be free, or if Dixie must rise again. But they're slowly starting to come around to those of us living in 2012.

[Adam Griffin]

Ohio and Wisconsin should be looked at as two interesting microcosms that have recently been shaped by political movements. Ohio, for instance, had the benefit of being super-organized following SB5 and that has helped give the Democrats an advantage this year. Likewise, Wisconsin Republicans out-organized the Democrats and the remaining political infrastructure is what has made Wisconsin so close this cycle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think Ohio's PVI will be around D+1 this year. As in, Obama wins the nation by 1-2 and Ohio by 2-3. It would really surprise me if it were higher than that.

[SirMuxALot]

Look it Indiana ,  In 2008 it went from like R+19 to  R+6

A 13 point swing.

Good example.  So there is a precedent for this kind of move.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Look it Indiana ,  In 2008 it went from like R+19 to  R+6

A 13 point swing.

Good example.  So there is a precedent for this kind of move.

Yeah, but Ohio is a relatively stable State. I think a 4 or 5 points dem trend in Ohio would already be something noteworthy.