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  TN-MTSU: Tennessee not as close as previous polls showed
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Author Topic: TN-MTSU: Tennessee not as close as previous polls showed  (Read 3889 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 27, 2012, 03:59:33 am »

59-34 Romney

Political independents in Tennessee favor Romney by 68 percent compared to 22 percent for Obama. People with strong party affiliations stayed committed, as well, with 89 percent of self-described Democrats sticking with Obama and 95 percent of Republicans favoring Romney.

Democrats made up 28 percent of the survey, compared to Republicans at 30 percent and those calling themselves independents at 32 percent.

In another key election, respondents favored Republican Sen. Bob Corker by 59 percent to 21 percent for Democratic candidate Mark Clayton, who was disavowed by the state party because of his stance on gay rights. Twelve percent were undecided.

The poll surveyed 650 randomly selected people by telephone Oct. 16-21. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. It was conducted by Issues & Answers Network, Inc., rather than using MTSU students as was done previously.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20121027/NEWS/310270009/Poll-shows-Mitt-Romney-wide-lead-Tennessee-especially-white-evangelicals
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2012, 04:08:19 am »

Holy crap, that is way different than what earlier polls have showed and would actually constitute a major swing against Obama versus 2008. Hmm.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2012, 04:27:01 am »

Holy crap, that is way different than what earlier polls have showed and would actually constitute a major swing against Obama versus 2008. Hmm.

Tennessee is a hellhole.  They can vote how they please. 
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2012, 04:30:08 am »

The other polls were flukes. Obama is going to suffer a huge swing here. If whites start voting the same way here they do in Alabama, things will get really ugly really fast.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2012, 05:58:05 am »

The other polls didn't really fit in with the pattern of 2010 - some of the worst results for the Democrats anywhere - although who knows. This poll probably isn't up to much either.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2012, 08:43:40 am »

59-34 Romney

Er, no.

TN might be single digits.
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Franzl
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2012, 08:50:31 am »

59-34 Romney

Er, no.

TN might be single digits.

And Obama is probably winning Texas too.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2012, 08:57:11 am »

These numbers out of the South make the national polls make sense...
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ZuWo
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2012, 09:01:00 am »

These numbers out of the South make the national polls make sense...

On the other hand, Obama has a massive lead in states like New York, which offsets some of the gains Romney will make in the South and should be reflected by national polls as well.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2012, 09:06:54 am »

Tennessee had one of the most republican shifts in the country in 10'. If you think it's going to be within 10 points there you're high and obviously haven't set foot in Tenn in a while.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2012, 09:25:47 am »

These numbers out of the South make the national polls make sense...

On the other hand, Obama has a massive lead in states like New York, which offsets some of the gains Romney will make in the South and should be reflected by national polls as well.

Actually no, using 2008 as a baseline, if Obama maintains those leads in NY, IL etc, but performing like a normal Dem in the Midwest and the South turning hard(er) against him - then there's been a shift away from Obama, that isn't being compensated for.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2012, 09:27:36 am »

Either way, the good folks of the South need to show the Tea Party the door. Otherwise, the South is just going to live up to its negative stereotypes.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2012, 09:53:18 am »

New Poll: Tennessee President by Middle Tennessee State University on 2012-10-25

Summary: D: 34%, R: 59%, I: 0%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Cliffy
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2012, 09:56:42 am »

Either way, the good folks of the South need to show the Tea Party the door. Otherwise, the South is just going to live up to its negative stereotypes.

It's the Rino's that are being shown the door, the tea party isn't going anywhere.  As a whole the movement is not extreme or embracing the types of elements the left would like to label it.
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dspNY
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2012, 10:08:46 am »

These numbers out of the South make the national polls make sense...

^^^^^^^

This
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2012, 10:16:22 am »

Either way, the good folks of the South need to show the Tea Party the door. Otherwise, the South is just going to live up to its negative stereotypes.

It's the Rino's that are being shown the door, the tea party isn't going anywhere.  As a whole the movement is not extreme or embracing the types of elements the left would like to label it.

The RINO's, largely in the Northeast and Far West are becoming Democrats -- and there are few RINO's in the South except in places of mas Yankee settlement (like Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and maybe Greater Atlanta). The Tea Party is as extreme as ever, and it willingly does what tycoons, executives, and big landowners tell it to do. Barack Obama is a horrible match for Tennessee outside of Memphis, Nashville, and some college towns. He is the ultimate intellectual, cosmopolitan, and city-slicker; he has no idea of how to win in the rural South.

The Obama vote will be not much larger than the African-American vote in Tennessee.    
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2012, 10:23:08 am »

Is northern Kentucky part of the South? Our local county executive was accused by the Tea Party of being a RINO, and the Tea Party endorsed his Democratic opponent.

As a result, that was one of very few instances where I ever ended up voting for a Republican.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2012, 10:26:15 am »

Huh. This may blow a hole in my theory. Hope Obama can at least break 40 here.
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TomC
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2012, 11:53:45 am »

A basic 60-40 split seems about right here. There was one close poll some months ago that no one took seriously. I dont recall multiple out of whack polls. The Dem Party is dead here. Our senate candidate is a batsh**t crazy anti gay crusader who somehow got the nomination. A GOP Congressman was caught (happened years ago but just came out) encouraging his mistress to get an abortion. He's on record threatening gun violence (maybe to himself, cant remember totally) as part of a marital dispute. He's likely to win reelection.
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memphis
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2012, 12:21:10 pm »

The Obama vote will be not much larger than the African-American vote in Tennessee.    
This is not true at all. Blacks will be 15-20% of the electorate here in TN. Obama will get more white votes than black votes. We're not Mississippi.
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King
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2012, 01:09:10 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2012, 01:11:12 pm by King »

Romney's entire 191 base of states except maybe Montana and Arizona might vote 60-70 percent for him.

His moderate appeal prevents Obama from doing the same in much of the northeast.

With numbers like these in uncontested states, Mittens could conceivably win the popular vote by up to 5 points and not win the election.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2012, 01:40:32 pm »

Romney's entire 191 base of states except maybe Montana and Arizona might vote 60-70 percent for him.

His moderate appeal prevents Obama from doing the same in much of the northeast.

With numbers like these in uncontested states, Mittens could conceivably win the popular vote by up to 5 points and not win the election.

That actually makes sense...
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King
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2012, 02:11:12 pm »

Romney's entire 191 base of states except maybe Montana and Arizona might vote 60-70 percent for him.

His moderate appeal prevents Obama from doing the same in much of the northeast.

With numbers like these in uncontested states, Mittens could conceivably win the popular vote by up to 5 points and not win the election.

That actually makes sense...

Republicans will throw a fit and Obama will probably have an assassination attempt levied on him by some guntotting little backwater bugger, but in the end it might finally get the electoral college removed.  That's a good thing.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2012, 02:16:05 pm »

I don't see Romney breaking 60 in TX, SD, MO, IN, GA, SC, WV, or MS.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2012, 02:16:18 pm »

Romney's entire 191 base of states except maybe Montana and Arizona might vote 60-70 percent for him.

His moderate appeal prevents Obama from doing the same in much of the northeast.

With numbers like these in uncontested states, Mittens could conceivably win the popular vote by up to 5 points and not win the election.

That actually makes sense...

Republicans will throw a fit and Obama will probably have an assassination attempt levied on him by some guntotting little backwater bugger, but in the end it might finally get the electoral college removed.  That's a good thing.

It would be pretty insane. I almost think Obama would voluntarily step down.
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