Is Ohio a Tough Date for Mittens because it is light on Torie-like voters?

[Torie]

Michael Barone thinks so. In other news, Barone said last night that he predicts that Mittens would win the election on the Hannity show (he can't fathom how it could be otherwise given the love that independents have for Mittens - yes I know, I know, don't tell me all of that stuff again about independents are really ex-Pubs - I have read all of those posts, thanks). Be afraid Dems, be very afraid. It's all falling apart for you! 

[Simfan34]

I hope you're right, Torie. But you're not the type to be wrong about things, so...

[Torie]

I hope you're right, Torie. But you're not the type to be wrong about things, so...

Oh there is a dollop of trolling in this thread guy.  I've been infected. It's kind of fun actually.

[Simfan34]

I hope you're right, Torie. But you're not the type to be wrong about things, so...

Oh there is a dollop of trolling in this thread guy.  I've been infected. It's kind of fun actually.

As have I, dearest Torie, as have I.

[bgwah]

What is a Torie-like voter? Someone who thinks dehumanization is a fair trade for tax cut?

[Ljube]

Mittens doesn't need Ohio. It seems he should zero in on Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Those three are his best bet.

Unfortunately I must admit that Ohio is as tough as I first thought it would be. Back in February I even said that Mitt wouldn't win Ohio and that he needed Pennsylvania as a substitute. I didn't think then that things would change so much in Wisconsin.

[Torie]

What is a Torie-like voter? Someone who thinks dehumanization is a fair trade for tax cut?

Well that definition might need some work. Thanks.

[afleitch]

What is a Torie-like voter? Someone who thinks dehumanization is a fair trade for tax cut?

Well that definition might need some work. Thanks.

Seems accurate

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is more a question of the time value of money.


All that "Kill Mitt", "Mitt is a Felon/tax cheat/outsourcer who wanted to liquidate GM" was centered on Ohio. Romney didn't have enough money to respond at the time and thought it best to stick to the economy in general terms. The debates helped him combat the narrative and get to 46%-47%, the problem is that obama is at 50%-51% and thus there aren't any undecideds left.  Unless the polls underestimate GOP turnout or some soft core Obama supporters shift at the last minute. This probably ends up a close 51-49 or 52-48 disappointment for Romney.

I wouldn't give up on OH, but I would push hard for the CO+IA+WI alternative, while simultaneously working to secure VA and NH.

If he can do all that and still has about $10 to $12 million he can spare, dump it into PA.

[Torie]

What is a Torie-like voter? Someone who thinks dehumanization is a fair trade for tax cut?

Well that definition might need some work. Thanks.

Seems accurate

Is that what voters sort of like me who voted for Obama last time, but not this time, think?  Interesting! I didn't "know" that about myself before.

[Torie]

It is more a question of the time value of money.


All that "Kill Mitt", "Mitt is a Felon/tax cheat/outsourcer who wanted to liquidate GM" was centered on Ohio. Romney didn't have enough money to respond at the time and thought it best to stick to the economy in general terms. The debates helped him combat the narrative and get to 46%-47%, the problem is that obama is at 50%-51% and thus there aren't any undecideds left.  Unless the polls underestimate GOP turnout or some soft core Obama supporters shift at the last minute. This probably ends up a close 51-49 or 52-48 disappointment for Romney.

I wouldn't give up on OH, but I would push hard for the CO+IA+WI alternative, while simultaneously working to secure VA and NH.

If he can do all that and still has about $10 to $12 million he can spare, dump it into PA.

Yes, if the main bridge to a glorious future looks like it may collapse, it is better to have another bridge available that may be even more problematical, rather than having no bridge available at all to attempt to traverse isn't it? Who knew? And it is fun to crank the odds of this sort of thing to boot (don't forget to factor in the correlation thing), if you are sufficiently odd to get off on statistics.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is pretty much spot on; Mitt isn't a great fit specifically for Ohio since Ohio has a larger portion of blue collar swing voters than most states. McCain made large inroads into SE Ohio's traditionally Democratic base because he came across as someone who had their interests in mind, ie. a war hero running against someone who said people in small rust belt towns were bitterly clinging to guns, religion, etc. But that was against McCain. Romney has a much harder time connecting to working class voters than McCain did.

Part of it too is how the public employee unions reforms played out in Ohio contrasted to how they played out in Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, the unpopular reforms seemed to gain popularity over time as the Democrats' antics became more and more desperate and the public wearied of recalls. Walker won the issue and thus moved Wisconsin toward the GOP. In Ohio, Kasich is viewed as having overreached significantly, the reform was repealed by a lopsided vote, and many of the union workers who supported McCain in '08 and Kasich in '10 were left with a bad taste in their mouths. Remember, McCain did win over 40% of the union vote and made large inroads in working class white ethnic areas. He held Obama under 60% of the vote in Parma, a largely working class Polish area that was a large part of the Kucinich re-election machine. Kasich, to his credit, has made helping the Cleveland area a priority in his administration since. He's visist Cleveland numerous times and worked with Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson on reforming the city schools despite getting pretty close to zero votes in the Cleveland Municipal School District. Kasich has worked tirelessly to build Jobs Ohio into a successful organization at retaining businesses in Northeast Ohio, etc.

Kasich seems to have repaired his own image some, but Romney looks to a lot of people as the perceived problem with the Republican Party, rich, out of touch, and uncaring to their concerns. Romney also lacks the consistent socially conservative credentials that a Republican can typically rely on to get some votes in blue collar areas. A lot of religious folk I know voted happily for McCain but lack enthusiasm for Mitt Romney. In Ohio this doesn't play out quite like it does in the Deep South where people will boycott a vote over it. In Ohio, people are typically a bit conflicted over whether or not they can give a Republican the benefit of the doubt on some economic qualms for being a consistent honorable voice in government. It's harder to make that argument for Mitt than it was for McCain.

[memphis]

Sad to see that Torie has reached the jmfsct level of self-importance in declaring that he is the center of the poliitical universe. I would have thought more highly of him.

[Torie]

Sad to see that Torie has reached the jmfsct level of self-importance in declaring that he is the center of the poliitical universe. I would have thought more highly of him.

Yes, Newtonian physics has been supplanted. I guess it was the headline was the straw that broke the camel's back, eh?  I rather enjoyed it myself. I thought it one of my better efforts actually.  

[SetonHallPirate]

Mittens doesn't need Ohio. It seems he should zero in on Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Those three are his best bet.

Unfortunately I must admit that Ohio is as tough as I first thought it would be. Back in February I even said that Mitt wouldn't win Ohio and that he needed Pennsylvania as a substitute. I didn't think then that things would change so much in Wisconsin.

If you think Romney can win this election without Ohio, then you must think Romney is going to carry Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and Wisconsin, plus either Iowa or New Hampshire. Frankly, that's the type of thinking that fills up insane asylums across the country.

[Cliffy]

It is more a question of the time value of money.


All that "Kill Mitt", "Mitt is a Felon/tax cheat/outsourcer who wanted to liquidate GM" was centered on Ohio. Romney didn't have enough money to respond at the time and thought it best to stick to the economy in general terms. The debates helped him combat the narrative and get to 46%-47%, the problem is that obama is at 50%-51% and thus there aren't any undecideds left.  Unless the polls underestimate GOP turnout or some soft core Obama supporters shift at the last minute. This probably ends up a close 51-49 or 52-48 disappointment for Romney.

I wouldn't give up on OH, but I would push hard for the CO+IA+WI alternative, while simultaneously working to secure VA and NH.

If he can do all that and still has about $10 to $12 million he can spare, dump it into PA.

Where on earth are you getting Obama at 50-51? in OH?  Obama can't get abov 48.

[bgwah]

What is a Torie-like voter? Someone who thinks dehumanization is a fair trade for tax cut?

Well that definition might need some work. Thanks.

Seems accurate

Is that what voters sort of like me who voted for Obama last time, but not this time, think?  Interesting! I didn't "know" that about myself before.

Romney is much more handsome than McCain. And his running mate is a well-aged twink, not some dumb woman.

I know you like to think you're mysterious, but you're pretty easy to figure out.

[Averroës Nix]

I suspect that there is no state in which the Tories represent more than a negligible share of the electorate.

If we're talking about the Republican donor base, on the other hand...

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I suspect that there is no state in which the Tories represent more than a negligible share of the electorate.

If we're talking about the Republican donor base, on the other hand...

Maybe Connecticut (but as you said, such people are the GOP donor base)

[opebo]

I suspect that there is no state in which the Tories represent more than a negligible share of the electorate.

Thank the merciful heavens for that. 

[Torie]

What is a Torie-like voter? Someone who thinks dehumanization is a fair trade for tax cut?

Well that definition might need some work. Thanks.

Seems accurate

Is that what voters sort of like me who voted for Obama last time, but not this time, think?  Interesting! I didn't "know" that about myself before.

Romney is much more handsome than McCain. And his running mate is a well-aged twink, not some dumb woman.

I know you like to think you're mysterious, but you're pretty easy to figure out.

Oh, I gave up "mystery" some time ago. You need to keep up!

[Torie]

I suspect that there is no state in which the Tories represent more than a negligible share of the electorate.

Thank the merciful heavens for that. 

  You're just jealous.

[Franzl]

Torir, are you by any chance under the influence of your "medically necessary " plant?

[Torie]

Torir, are you by any chance under the influence of your "medically necessary " plant?

Of course. That's typical, and given that I was on the road for 9 days, and decided that I had to pass through too many airports so the cost-benefit ratio dictated going without THC for the entire duration, my resistance is down. I hope that helps.

[Franzl]

Torir, are you by any chance under the influence of your "medically necessary " plant?

Of course. That's typical, and given that I was on the road for 9 days, and decided that I had to pass through too many airports so the cost-benefit ratio dictated going without THC for the entire duration, my resistance is down. I hope that helps.

Ah, I see