CA-LA Times Poll: Obama+14

[Tender Branson]

54-40-1 Obama/Romney/Others

http://www.gqrr.com/images/stories/latusc.fq.102712.pdf

[Holmes]

That's it?

[dspNY]

Would also explain the popular vote/electoral vote difference...Cali went to Obama by 3.2 million votes, or 24% in 2008...take about a million votes off that margin, add about half a million Repub votes in Texas and another 2 million across the rest of the South, and you can see why the non-Southern swing states are going to Obama while the popular vote is dead even

I'd like to see Field's final poll of California too

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: California President by LA Times on 2012-10-25

Summary: D: 54%, R: 40%, I: 1%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Cliffy]

Big movement in liberal utopia yet you think it's not moved in Ohio.  Good luck with that.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Big movement in liberal utopia yet you think it's not moved in Ohio.  Good luck with that.

Because California has the exact same political dynamics as Ohio. Good luck with that.

[dspNY]

Cliffy is obviously ignorant about California if he thinks it is all a liberal utopia (Orange County and San Diego County are generally Republican, and they have almost 2.3 million voters). Those counties, are probably swinging back right naturally because neither campaign is running nonstop ads there; California was a given for Dems to win.

Ohio is getting constantly bombarded and almost everyone made up their mind before the conventions (and the polling aggregate, which is pretty much never wrong shows Obama up 2-3)

This poll (O+14 likely, O+16 registered), tells us that the race is about dead even nationally. Obama won the popular vote in 2008 by about 9.5 million votes and California by 24%. A 15% win for Obama would shave about 1.2 million votes off that, and the majority of those votes would come from Orange and San Diego Counties

[Cliffy]

Yeah Ohio is the only state to be bombarded by ads, VA, FL, NC, IA, CO not so much.......lol 

[krazen1211]

Romney looks to be soaring with whites in the west.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Romney looks to be soaring with whites in the west.

Yeah, because (other than Colorado) that will somehow help.

[Sbane]

This is the LA times poll folks. Might as well listen to what Pepperdine University has to say.

[Seriously?]

Would also explain the popular vote/electoral vote difference...Cali went to Obama by 3.2 million votes, or 24% in 2008...take about a million votes off that margin, add about half a million Repub votes in Texas and another 2 million across the rest of the South, and you can see why the non-Southern swing states are going to Obama while the popular vote is dead even

I'd like to see Field's final poll of California too

I don't follow. Assuming Gallup raw party ID as a self-identified shift in electorate, including Is going R in this election, you're looking at a net R gain of R+7 or R+8 in this election.

Romney's net vote gain in Cali is just R+3 from 2008 (37% to 40%). Unless you are suggesting all the undecideds there break to the challenger, Romney will underperform in Cali vs. the national trend. The gain would have to come from elsewhere. (The same holds true if you model the race tied and a R+4 or R+5 swing.)

You can also add New York to the mix, the state that is in a 2008 time warp and there's no appreciable Romney swing.