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  FL Regions: Mason-Dixon I-4 Corridor: Romney +6; Miami-Dade County: Obama +9
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Author Topic: FL Regions: Mason-Dixon I-4 Corridor: Romney +6; Miami-Dade County: Obama +9  (Read 6325 times)
Vosem
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« Reply #25 on: October 28, 2012, 10:42:53 pm »

They said Sink would win in 2010.

So you're saying they have a Democratic tilt?
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #26 on: October 28, 2012, 10:43:38 pm »

They said Sink would win in 2010.

They had her up by one point.  Romney wins here by three minimum. 

I trust you, soothsayer. I too gazed deep into the entrails of a goat's anal sphincter and discovered this information deep inside.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #27 on: October 28, 2012, 10:44:30 pm »

They said Sink would win in 2010.

They had her up by one point.  Romney wins here by three minimum. 

They were still wrong. The "master of Florida polling" shouldn't say the candidate that loses is going to win.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2012, 11:38:05 pm »

First off no poll is perfect. Ever heard of margin of error?

They had Sink up by 1, What did Scott win by again?

Also how long before election day was the poll conducted?


They only had Romney winning by nine in the FL primary, but it was a few days earlier then the several polls done right at the end that caught the full extent of Romney's momentum there were thus closer. They also got the Hispanic numbers correct.

Seriously people, chill out about every damn little point in poll and enjoy the ride. Tongue
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Franzl
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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2012, 12:23:03 pm »

They said Sink would win in 2010.

So you're saying they have a Democratic tilt?

Do you have any idea how polling works?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2012, 09:42:28 am »

Using 2008 as a baseline, Obama lost Cubans 52-46... so while I understand a drop-off, that 76-19 number is MASSIVE, and eye-brow raising shift.
Srsly? Maybe some exit poll subsample claimed that, but I can assure you that, from precinct results, there is no possibility, none whatsoever, that Obama broke 40 among M-D Cubans. Probably right about 35.
Which probably tells you all you really need to know about this subsample as well. Which isn't saying that the poll is wrong overall, of course.


Probably closer to 30 than 35. Hialeah voted 64% McCain and is 75% Cuban or so. The remainder is mostly noncuban Hispanic, not that whites are conservative in Dade anyway.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2012, 02:24:20 am »

Wow ! MEGA-EPIC-FAIL !

M-D said 52-43 Obama in Miami-Dade.

Obama leads there right now by 62-38 ... Tongue

Does anyone know how the I-4 corridor voted ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2012, 02:33:00 am »

This is what Mason-Dixon polled in the I-4, so let's do the math with the "real" results:

Img
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #33 on: November 09, 2012, 02:56:58 am »

The combined results of the 15 counties polled by M-D in the I-4 corridor was:

49.7% Romney (1.657.000 votes)
49.3% Obama (1.643.000 votes)
  1.0% Others (34.000 votes)

So, the poll was off by 5.6% ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2012, 02:58:59 am »

So, alltogether we can say that Mason-Dixon was off by about 5-6% in their I-4 poll and by 15 points in their Miami-Dade poll ...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2012, 03:01:56 am »

Also, Obama essentially tied Mitt Romney with Cuban voters in Florida, despite this poll showing him losing them by 50%. LOL
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2012, 08:27:54 am »

I feel more comfortable about making noise about the Latino breakdown on this one...
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Holmes
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« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2012, 09:36:23 am »

Oh Mr. Phips. Just take a puff and calm the  down.
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