FL Regions: Mason-Dixon I-4 Corridor: Romney +6; Miami-Dade County: Obama +9

[krazen1211]

The only issue I have is that Obama lost ground among Latinos, even accounting for Cubans that's an ENORMOUS shift that really isn't being seen anywhere else.

Except for all of the other Florida polls of course.

[krazen1211]

Romney is soaring with the Cuban vote. Those are Bush/Rubio numbers.

[krazen1211]

How did Bush do amongst cubans?

http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/FACTS_Web/Cuba%20Facts%20Issue%2057.htm

75% in 2000, 78% in 2004.

[krazen1211]

Using 2008 as a baseline, Obama lost Cubans 52-46... so while I understand a drop-off, that 76-19 number is MASSIVE, and eye-brow raising shift.

Srsly? Maybe some exit poll subsample claimed that, but I can assure you that, from precinct results, there is no possibility, none whatsoever, that Obama broke 40 among M-D Cubans. Probably right about 35.
Which probably tells you all you really need to know about this subsample as well. Which isn't saying that the poll is wrong overall, of course.

Probably closer to 30 than 35. Hialeah voted 64% McCain and is 75% Cuban or so. The remainder is mostly noncuban Hispanic, not that whites are conservative in Dade anyway.