NE-Omaha World Herald: Romney leads by 5 in NE-02, 14 in the state
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  NE-Omaha World Herald: Romney leads by 5 in NE-02, 14 in the state
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Author Topic: NE-Omaha World Herald: Romney leads by 5 in NE-02, 14 in the state  (Read 1331 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 28, 2012, 01:41:23 AM »

NE: 52-38 Romney

NE-02: 49-44 Romney

http://www.omaha.com/article/20121028/NEWS/710289929/1694
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2012, 01:47:50 AM »

Yeah, it doesn't look like lightning's gonna strike twice here. Too much of a national shift. I have a feeling we're in for enough surprises on election day anyway, though.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2012, 01:50:34 AM »

Not bad if it's accurate. Something like 57% Romney, 42% Obama statewide. That'd put Obama near or even over his 2008 performance, which would be great considering how many thought Romney would overperform in areas like this. Even in NE-2, Romney would be pushing it to get over 52% with these results.

Downside, though, is that it appears the sample was only 100 people (when you hover over the results on the page, it shows a secondary number that I'm assuming are people).
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2012, 01:57:13 AM »

Downside, though, is that it appears the sample was only 100 people (when you hover over the results on the page, it shows a secondary number that I'm assuming are people).

Doubtful.  The statewide sample was 800 voters.  So assuming they didn't oversample NE-02 to get a more statistically significant result (which is possible), the pollster should have sampled about 266 voters each of Nebraska's 3 CDs.  The MoE on that should be about +/-6.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2012, 03:40:25 AM »

Downside, though, is that it appears the sample was only 100 people (when you hover over the results on the page, it shows a secondary number that I'm assuming are people).

Doubtful.  The statewide sample was 800 voters.  So assuming they didn't oversample NE-02 to get a more statistically significant result (which is possible), the pollster should have sampled about 266 voters each of Nebraska's 3 CDs.  The MoE on that should be about +/-6.

Even that is well under the acceptable sample of 300.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2012, 03:47:11 AM »

I'd expect to see Obama either further ahead in CD 2 or doing worse than that statewide. It's just a hunch, but the two results here don't seem to mesh, IMO.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2012, 05:10:44 AM »

The new CD-2 is supposed to be a bit more GOP friendly than the old one BK.  Anyway the poling pretty much confirms my impression, not impossible for Obama but if it weren't for parts of western Iowa being in the same media market as Omaha, it wouldn't be worth spending time or money in.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2012, 07:09:30 AM »

This seems like a tough one for Obama. I don't think he'll win it (NE-02 that is), but I do think it's definitely within the realm of possibility. From what I understand though, the district only very marginally changed from its 2008 incarnation. According to the Cook PVI, it went from R+5 to R+6, which is hardly a significant shift.

The one thing I cannot reconcile is the 14-point statewide margin with the national tracking polls. I don't see how state polling can be reconciled with national polling, and I'm not saying one is more right that the other. Although, I am probably more predisposed to believe the consensus of state polling over national tracking polls.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2012, 08:04:52 AM »

New Poll: Nebraska President by Wiese Research on 2012-10-26

Summary: D: 38%, R: 52%, I: 0%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2012, 11:15:17 AM »

For the record, this is an improvement over 2008 - as is the Oklahoma poll.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2012, 02:14:12 AM »

For the record, this is an improvement over 2008 - as is the Oklahoma poll.

Not once you take into account the undecideds.  At best this shows Nebraska trending a little towards Obama, and that assumes the undecideds break roughly the same as the decideds already have. Nebraska-2 was always going to be a stretch this year and since unlike Romney and Maine-2, there's no chance of this being the 269th or 270th EV for him, there's no point in going after it when the election as a whole is still in doubt.
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