politicallefty
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,238
Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22
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« on: October 28, 2012, 07:09:30 AM » |
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This seems like a tough one for Obama. I don't think he'll win it (NE-02 that is), but I do think it's definitely within the realm of possibility. From what I understand though, the district only very marginally changed from its 2008 incarnation. According to the Cook PVI, it went from R+5 to R+6, which is hardly a significant shift.
The one thing I cannot reconcile is the 14-point statewide margin with the national tracking polls. I don't see how state polling can be reconciled with national polling, and I'm not saying one is more right that the other. Although, I am probably more predisposed to believe the consensus of state polling over national tracking polls.
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