NY Long Island, Sienna College Romney +2

[Cliffy]

47-45


http://www.newsday.com/elections/barack-obama-mitt-romney-polling-at-a-tie-on-long-island-1.4162143


Good poll for romney if he can win Long Island he's doing really well in the suburbs.

[Devils30]

Obama didn't really do all that well on LI last time around and didnt campaign in NY in the primary or general. Dont think its anything more than the national swing.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Republicans haven't won LI since 1992... So obviously it would be good. I think mittens sees a lot of gains in CT though.

[Seriously?]

47-45

Good poll for romney if he can win Long Island he's doing really well in the suburbs.

The New York City suburbs nonetheless that slightly trend Democrat.

Rural goes Republican, Cities go Democrat. Suburbs decide elections.

[Seriously?]

Obama didn't really do all that well on LI last time around and didnt campaign in NY in the primary or general. Dont think its anything more than the national swing.

Obama won Nassau 53-47 and Suffolk 52-47. The poll suggests a R+7 or R+8 swing, affirming Gallup's take on the movement of the electorate.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

That is impressive, better than Bush Junior did, right?
First post

[Lief 🗽]

I wonder what region of the state is swinging towards him then? Since his numbers in New York seem to be holding steady since 2008.

[dirks]

I can see Obama floundering here among the large population of jewish voters due to his anti-israel stances. Also not getting much help from the upper middle class Irish and Italian catholics out on the island

he won nassau by 8 and suffolk by 6 in 2008, so overall his numbers when you factor in the good folks upstate will take a hit in NY

the city, forget about it. the wretched bronx, vile lower west side...ugh. Obama is still taking NY by a ton, but Romney may crack 40%

[sobo]

This isn't really all that surprising, Long Island was R+1 compared to the national popular vote in 2008.

[Oakvale]

his anti-israel stances.

[© tweed]

as has been said repeatedly Romney is a far superior candidate in wealthy suburbia than was McCain.  this plus the national swing makes Nassau/Suffolk tossups, though gun to my head I'd say Obama wins both by a point or two.

[dirks]

his anti-israel stances.

that's the perception if you live in this area...and it's hurting him with the jewish voters of Long Island.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I wonder what region of the state is swinging towards him then? Since his numbers in New York seem to be holding steady since 2008.

Brooklyn and Queens, maybe?

[dirks]

Brooklyn especially. Brooklyn has a lot of older russian voters who will go for Romney...but it's a breeding ground for young recent college grad liberals from around the country to congregate too.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Considering Obama over-performed in LI, it's not exactly surprising this is coming back to its normal status.

[Bacon King]

For the record, for those too lazy to click the link:

Nassau

45% Romney
45% Obama

Suffolk

47% Romney
45% Obama

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I wonder what region of the state is swinging towards him then? Since his numbers in New York seem to be holding steady since 2008.

Obama really underperformed in the western part of the state; maybe they're coming home?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I wonder what region of the state is swinging towards him then? Since his numbers in New York seem to be holding steady since 2008.

Obama really underperformed in the western part of the state; maybe they're coming home?

I heard Obama is doing well upstate?

[Niemeyerite]

This + Sandy ===> NY is tied.

Am I right, Cliffy? Dirks? Krazen?

[5280]

I always thought New York Republicans are a rare breed, if not an oxymoron.  This is a bit of positive news coming from the northeast.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I wonder what region of the state is swinging towards him then? Since his numbers in New York seem to be holding steady since 2008.

Both GM and Ford have large factories in Buffalo, and the city has never really recovered from the 1980's steel mill closures. This combination is quite similar to northern Ohio.

[memphis]

Somebody bothered to poll a small corner of a non-competitive state? Ok.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Considering Obama over-performed in LI

Memory playing tricks time again; Kerry/Obama swing in Nassau was very low.

[patrick1]

Considering Obama over-performed in LI

Memory playing tricks time again; Kerry/Obama swing in Nassau was very low.

Yeah as you are no doubt aware- despite the changing demographics of LI as a whole racial politics and attitudes are still strong in many quarters. The Obama supposedly being anti Israel plays to many of the Jewish persuasion and many white ethnics still bitter/scared about changes that occurred decades ago.

[Seriously?]

I wonder what region of the state is swinging towards him then? Since his numbers in New York seem to be holding steady since 2008.

Well, for starters, it a uni poll. So who knows how accurate it is, especially since the statewide polls are basically static from 2008. It does fit into the R+7 or R+8 narrative that Gallup is painting.

If there's any gain, it would have to be with minority groups in New York City. The Northern burbs would probably mirror LI and I can't see upstate tilting more Obama than 2008. It's not like business is booming in upstate NY.