Politico/GWU Battleground Poll: Obama 49- Romney 48

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Obama has regained the lead in the tracking poll 49-48, a three point swing from last week.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82986.html?hp=f3
He's back on top with women.

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His JA is positive.

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He also leads on substantive issues.

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.

[Eraserhead]

Cool. Hopefully they won't bother with a final poll though.

[Franzl]

The national polls are going towards Obama ever so slightly. Combined with the dire EC situation for Romney...I think Obama is really the clear favorite now.

[afleitch]

The national polls are going towards Obama ever so slightly. Combined with the dire EC situation for Romney...I think Obama is really the clear favorite now.

There's been a reduction in undecideds in good state polls recently, either because they have now made their choice or because pollsters have deduced that they won't go to the polls. It's too early to announce who's getting the benefit of that. Of course some state polls and alot of national polls (without call backs) will be next to meaningless over the next few days. IDB/TIPP made a good call on suspending polling.

[Yank2133]

Brit Humes was saying this poll was suppose to be Romney +5.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama is surging back into the lead nationally.

[Torie]

Well, 52-47 advantage Mittens.  Enjoy! In this environment, that seems like a landslide to me! I am surprised krazen has not already picked up it. He must be slipping.

[Lief 🗽]

The actual poll says Obama 49-48. Then they apply their magical model and suddenly Mittens leads by 5. Sure.

[Torie]

The actual poll says Obama 49-48. Then they apply their magical model and suddenly Mittens leads by 5. Sure.

Cool! Don't you like magical models?  Did you ever consider that all of the models have an element of alchemy in them?

[DemPGH]

It is Halloween, so a little hocus-pocus turns that O+1 to R+5.

[Holmes]

Lay off the weed a bit, Tor.

[Torie]

Lay off the weed a bit, Tor.

I am a mere conduit. By the way, it is a bipartisan poll projection. So there! 

[Beet]

Just to be clear, the Battleground Poll is bipartisan and finds Obama leading 49-48, but the "vote election model" and the Goeas memo cited by the Weekly Standard, are not. They come exclusively from the Republican Tarrance Group.

[dirks]

Great number for Mitt from a top notch firm! Looks like Obama is mired at 47% haha!

the 49-48 is what happens with the D+6-9 special sauce turnout model. PPP doesn't realize this yet. Obviously polls need to be adjusted when you oversample dems

[ajb]

Great number for Mitt from a top notch firm! Looks like Obama is mired at 47% 49% haha!

FTFY

[ajb]

Key graf:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

Doesn't this sound rather like a likely voter model? Which they've already applied in generating the topline results?

[Likely Voter]

The same Tarrance Group projection in 2008 had Obama only +2.  He won by 7

[Torie]

Key graf:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

Doesn't this sound rather like a likely voter model? Which they've already applied in generating the topline results?

Your last point is an interesting and valid one. The same thought occurred to me, but for me to pose it, would do nothing for Mittmomentum, so I repressed the thought. But in my defense, I just knew you would show up to close this particular "donut hole."  Thanks!

[ajb]

Key graf:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

Doesn't this sound rather like a likely voter model? Which they've already applied in generating the topline results?

Your last point is an interesting and valid one. The same thought occurred to me, but for me to pose it, would do nothing for Mittmomentum, so I repressed the thought. But in my defense, I just knew you would show up to close this particular "donut hole."  Thanks!

Glad to be of service.

[Franzl]

Key graf:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

Doesn't this sound rather like a likely voter model? Which they've already applied in generating the topline results?

Your last point is an interesting and valid one. The same thought occurred to me, but for me to pose it, would do nothing for Mittmomentum, so I repressed the thought. But in my defense, I just knew you would show up to close this particular "donut hole."  Thanks!

Might as well just start your own "polling firm", don't you think, Torie? Then you have direct control over the numbers and can provide as strong a boost to Mittmentum as you desire

[Eraserhead]

Hilarious.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Romney isnt president type. hes like Colin Farrell in Horrible Bosses.

[Eraserhead]

Brit Humes was saying this poll was suppose to be Romney +5.

Yes, those are the "unskewed" numbers.