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  MA: University of New Hampshire: Brown surges back into contention
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Author Topic: MA: University of New Hampshire: Brown surges back into contention  (Read 1425 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 29, 2012, 11:12:49 am »

New Poll: Massachusetts Senator by University of New Hampshire on 2012-10-28

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2012, 11:27:49 am »

UNH is notoriously not very good though. Hopefully some more polling here shows this to be an outlier.
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2012, 11:42:31 am »

Strongly doubt it. Let's wait for another poll.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2012, 11:52:51 am »

According to Cillizza, not even Massachusetts GOPers don't buy that poll.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2012, 12:02:03 pm »

Want to see confirmation from another local pollster.
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2012, 02:47:12 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2012, 03:09:27 pm by Nathan »

There was just a Globe poll showing the same result, with leaners. The Globe poll in question, however, has Obama at 52%, and even not considering that and the other polls the past few weeks in this race (the Globe doesn't have a Republican lean in particular, but it does have high undecideds a lot of the time and has just been distinctly odd at a few points in this particular race so far), ties are more liable than not to go to the Democrat in this state.

Of course, my main reason for suspicion is that I simply can't think of anything that could have conceivably shifted the race very much in the past few days except polling weirdness because of people preparing for the storm, and even that's questionable since the storm's only just hitting now. That, and the whole weekend polling thing, since the Globe poll is half weekend and the UNH one is apparently all Sunday.

EDIT: They're the same poll, never mind, UNH being UNH, thanks RogueBeaver.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2012, 02:56:15 pm »

They're the same poll: "UNH conducted for the Globe." In the end it depends whether more Southies are straighters or splitters.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2012, 02:57:43 pm »

There was just a Globe poll showing the same result, with leaners. The Globe poll in question, however, has Obama at 52%, and even not considering that and the other polls the past few weeks in this race (the Globe doesn't have a Republican lean in particular, but it does have high undecideds a lot of the time and has just been distinctly odd at a few points in this particular race so far), ties are more liable than not to go to the Democrat in this state.

Of course, my main reason for suspicion is that I simply can't think of anything that could have conceivably shifted the race very much in the past few days except polling weirdness because of people preparing for the storm, and even that's questionable since the storm's only just hitting now. That, and the whole weekend polling thing, since the Globe poll is half weekend and the UNH one is apparently all Sunday.

Well the coast is more D than inland (the far West is very low population), so hurricane related issues could actually explain it.
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Nathan
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2012, 03:08:51 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2012, 03:37:16 pm by Nathan »

They're the same poll: "UNH conducted for the Globe." In the end it depends whether more Southies are straighters or splitters.

Ah, oh! In that case disregard that, there's not especially much reason to take this seriously even as a little quasi-worrying blip trend since UNH tends to post all sorts of fairly off-base numbers. Brown is as much tied with Warren as Obama is up almost double-digits in New Hampshire.

There was just a Globe poll showing the same result, with leaners. The Globe poll in question, however, has Obama at 52%, and even not considering that and the other polls the past few weeks in this race (the Globe doesn't have a Republican lean in particular, but it does have high undecideds a lot of the time and has just been distinctly odd at a few points in this particular race so far), ties are more liable than not to go to the Democrat in this state.

Of course, my main reason for suspicion is that I simply can't think of anything that could have conceivably shifted the race very much in the past few days except polling weirdness because of people preparing for the storm, and even that's questionable since the storm's only just hitting now. That, and the whole weekend polling thing, since the Globe poll is half weekend and the UNH one is apparently all Sunday.

Well the coast is more D than inland (the far West is very low population), so hurricane related issues could actually explain it.

Kind of odd if true since it didn't start until like five hours ago, but then again, I'm in the low-population far West so I don't know what kind of preparation Easterners have been making.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2012, 03:32:49 pm »

According to Cillizza, not even Massachusetts GOPers don't buy that poll.

Ah a double negative, so who am I to disagree.
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Franzl
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2012, 04:26:58 pm »

Judging by Obama's numbers in this poll, I'm inclined to say that Warren is still relatively comfortably ahead.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2012, 04:39:27 pm »

According to Cillizza, not even Massachusetts GOPers don't buy that poll.

Ah a double negative, so who am I to disagree.

Mocking my use of the English language is like mocking JJ's relationship with numbers.
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Vosem
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2012, 04:40:45 pm »

UNH is crap, just like Elizabeth Warren.

According to Cillizza, not even Massachusetts GOPers don't buy that poll.

Ah a double negative, so who am I to disagree.

Mocking my use of the English language is like mocking JJ's relationship with numbers.

Who would dare to mock two such expert, accomplished men? Yes, 'expert' can be an adjective if you want; before someone complains.
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Nathan
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2012, 04:56:14 pm »

Judging by Obama's numbers in this poll, I'm inclined to say that Warren is still relatively comfortably ahead.

Yeah, I mean, if Obama actually only got 52% in Massachusetts, not only would Warren be in a tied race with Brown, she'd probably in fact lose. By quite a bit. The result isn't going to remotely resemble Obama at 52% and it's going to be at least a few points beyond Obama +14 too.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2012, 05:07:19 pm »

Brown's pulled out of the final debate, citing Sandy.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/10/29/scott-brown-pulls-out-final-senate-debate-with-elizabeth-warren-citing-hurricane/onq4KWofOHsLzoyHM4rOhI/story.html
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Nathan
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2012, 05:25:45 pm »

Brown's pulled out of the final debate, citing Sandy.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/10/29/scott-brown-pulls-out-final-senate-debate-with-elizabeth-warren-citing-hurricane/onq4KWofOHsLzoyHM4rOhI/story.html

Good decision. They should both focus on keeping their families safe and helping others in their areas however possible.
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