FL-CNN/ORC: Still a tossup

[Lief 🗽]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/29/cnnorc-poll-october-25-28-florida/

Romney 50
Obama 49

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Now why is everyone saying FL is lean Romney again?

[Yank2133]

RV

Obama-52
Romney-46

That is one hell of a LV screen.........

[dirks]

LV are the people actually coming out to vote. Only LV matters.

[Yank2133]

LV are the people actually coming out to vote. Only LV matters.

No sh**t.

My point is you usually don't have a gap that wide. At most, the difference between the two should be 2-3 points, not 7.

[Likely Voter]

One of the issues with LV models is they dont account for the effect of GOTV efforts. Essentially they say. If everyone had to vote, Obama wins, if everyone was left to their own devices then Romney wins (because a lot of Obama voters will stay at home). But if one team has a better GOTV effort, then that can make a difference one way or the other. Going into 2004  Bush's LV avg was around +1. In the end Bush's FL GOTV got him +5.

[Minnesota Mike]

Tied with 3rd party candidates included.

[Eraserhead]

Backs up PPP and Rasmussen and probably confirms that Mason-Dixon's poll is off.

[Mr.Phips]

Backs up PPP and Rasmussen and probably confirms that Mason-Dixon's poll is off.

Mason-Dixon is almost never off in Florida.  Them and Qpac were the only ones that even came close to getting Bush's five point win in Florida in 2004 right.  They were also the only ones to put Bush ahead in Florida in 2000. 

[Lief 🗽]

They were also the only ones to put Bush ahead in Florida in 2000. 

How is that a point in their favor?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

One of the issues with LV models is they dont account for the effect of GOTV efforts. Essentially they say. If everyone had to vote, Obama wins, if everyone was left to their own devices then Romney wins (because a lot of Obama voters will stay at home). But if one team has a better GOTV effort, then that can make a difference one way or the other. Going into 2004  Bush's LV avg was around +1. In the end Bush's FL GOTV got him +5.

This is how Obama wins FL.