Who is the Republican frontrunner?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Click on the December 4th video. http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/webcast_archives.aspx

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Paul, Fred Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee are the ones supporting a flat tax. (Not to mention that the current Republican darling Huckabee said in a nationally-televised debate just last week he was going to dissolve the IRS.)

Giuliani and Romney are strongly against it.

Paul is very VERY anti-protectionism. And a quick google search shows me that Paul has never said "no CIA" or "no FBI".

So...get some facts first?

I've seen Paul say in multiple interviews on TV say he planned to do away with the FBI and the CIA. I like the flat tax, but Paul never said he was for it .. simply that he would entertain some sort of idea like that. He's also for returning to the gold standard because printing money is unconstitutional. But I know I can't win an argument with a Paul supporter. They are sipping the same kool aid that he is.

[Erc]

Problem is, I don't quite see Romney getting enough traction nationwide to sweep the country.  His poll position now is terrible (although everybody's is at this point, I suppose)--and would need big momentum out of the early states to pull it off.  Unless he wins Iowa, he's going to do no better than splitting the early states with Huckabee, and will likely even lose FL.  Huckabee will likely get the bigger boost out of January.  In order to win on Super Tuesday, he'll need to get the support of a lot of voters who are currently in the Rudy / McCain camp...and if Rudy's still in the running by Super Tuesday, what seems more likely, even with a strong Romney, is a three-way split in many states where Huckabee, with a very loyal and excited base, wins in most states.  Romney might win a few of the big ones, but I'm finding it hard to see how he'll pull it off convincingly now that his former 'January sweep' strategy is having problems.

Huckabee's supporters will be quite motivated--Romney would largely be attracting support from those who don't like Huckabee, as opposed to actually liking Romney.

But I may be underestimating Romney's money advantage, or underestimating how much coverage he gets if he starts winning primaries (although my main point is that this will be split with Huckabee if Huckabee is doing well, too).



As for the Paul thing, I don't rightly know.  I don't follow the guy's platform that closely, and I'm not considering voting for him unless it's a fait accompli by Feb 5th.

[Likely Voter]

I used to think Romney was the front runner and that his early win strategy would trump Guilliani's super tuesday sweep the table plan. But if Huckabee, Guiliani and Romney all trade wins in the early states, then Guilliani wins by default in February.

One thing I still wonder though....can Rudy still win big on Super Tuesday if he doesn't win a single state in January, or if he only wins one like NV.

[Mr. Morden]

One thing I still wonder though....can Rudy still win big on Super Tuesday if he doesn't win a single state in January, or if he only wins one like NV.

Short answer: No.

[HardRCafé]

and those who favor real change and small government, the biggest reason I support him is because he actually believes what he is saying

Someone who favors real change would choose a candidate who had at least a snowball's chance in Hell of winning.  You might as well write in your mother.

[StateBoiler]

Click on the December 4th video. http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/webcast_archives.aspx

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Paul, Fred Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee are the ones supporting a flat tax. (Not to mention that the current Republican darling Huckabee said in a nationally-televised debate just last week he was going to dissolve the IRS.)

Giuliani and Romney are strongly against it.

Paul is very VERY anti-protectionism. And a quick google search shows me that Paul has never said "no CIA" or "no FBI".

So...get some facts first?

I've seen Paul say in multiple interviews on TV say he planned to do away with the FBI and the CIA.

Link?

And who do you support?

Talk bad about us all you want, but I do know this. Adherents of the libertarian philosophy are about 15% of the country based on the diamond chart, and no Republican will win in 2008 against the Democrat without our support. It's one of the side effects of a 50/50 nation. So the eventual Republican nominee is going to have to moderate his position to appease libertarians due to Paul's passionate support.

He's gone from being someone I supported but thought would be down at Tom Tancredo numbers to someone that has had massive fundraising from a grassroots base that I did not know existed, and his numbers have jumped five-fold. He has way outperformed my expectations, which to me shows that there are a lot of Republicans out there sick at what the party has become while in power.

The link I provided was two professional pollsters that thought Paul would get double digits in Iowa and might even finish ahead of Giuliani. Not sure if it will happen or not, but the fact it's even being broached is in itself an achievement from where he started. Who'da thunk that six months ago?

So you better learn to love us. We're here, and we're not going away.


Republican Order:

1. Romney (still, although he's slipping)
2. Giuliani (he just needs to hang in there til the big states vote)
3. Huckabee (rising hard)
4. McCain (not sure who of the 3 above him he needs to take down)
5. Fred Thompson (needs to fight off both Romney and Huckabee now, as his YouTube ad in the debate showed)
6. Paul
7. Tancredo
8. Hunter

[agcatter]

Damned if I know who is ahead anymore........strongest chance in 50 years that there is a brokered convention.  My prediction  (and I know I'm probably dreaming) is that delegates are split 5 ways and the party turns to McCain as the closest to a concensus candidate that they can find.  I know that sounds crazy, but I don't see any of these candidates running away with it.  I just don't.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ron Mike McGuiliomney

[The Mikado]

At various points of the last year, John McCain Rudy Giuliani Fred Thompson Rudy Giuliani Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee.

[Mr. Morden]

At various points of the last year, John McCain Rudy Giuliani Fred Thompson Rudy Giuliani Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee.

If you consider the last *two* years, you could add George Allen.  We sure have had an awful lot of "frontrunners".

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I miss George Allen. He is the man.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Click on the December 4th video. http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/webcast_archives.aspx

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Paul, Fred Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee are the ones supporting a flat tax. (Not to mention that the current Republican darling Huckabee said in a nationally-televised debate just last week he was going to dissolve the IRS.)

Giuliani and Romney are strongly against it.

Paul is very VERY anti-protectionism. And a quick google search shows me that Paul has never said "no CIA" or "no FBI".

So...get some facts first?

I've seen Paul say in multiple interviews on TV say he planned to do away with the FBI and the CIA.

Link?

And who do you support?

Talk bad about us all you want, but I do know this. Adherents of the libertarian philosophy are about 15% of the country based on the diamond chart, and no Republican will win in 2008 against the Democrat without our support. It's one of the side effects of a 50/50 nation. So the eventual Republican nominee is going to have to moderate his position to appease libertarians due to Paul's passionate support.

He's gone from being someone I supported but thought would be down at Tom Tancredo numbers to someone that has had massive fundraising from a grassroots base that I did not know existed, and his numbers have jumped five-fold. He has way outperformed my expectations, which to me shows that there are a lot of Republicans out there sick at what the party has become while in power.

The link I provided was two professional pollsters that thought Paul would get double digits in Iowa and might even finish ahead of Giuliani. Not sure if it will happen or not, but the fact it's even being broached is in itself an achievement from where he started. Who'da thunk that six months ago?

So you better learn to love us. We're here, and we're not going away.


Republican Order:

1. Romney (still, although he's slipping)
2. Giuliani (he just needs to hang in there til the big states vote)
3. Huckabee (rising hard)
4. McCain (not sure who of the 3 above him he needs to take down)
5. Fred Thompson (needs to fight off both Romney and Huckabee now, as his YouTube ad in the debate showed)
6. Paul
7. Tancredo
8. Hunter

I don't have a video link other than the one when he was on Bill Mahers' show on youtube. It was on Keith Olberman's show on MSNBC. It's fine if you dont want to believe me. I know we need libertarian's in the election, but I simply said some of Paul's policies are just implausible. Bit like i said, i know i cant win an argument with a Paul supporter. You, like the rest, are so quick to jump and attack when someone says something negative about him.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I miss George Allen. He is the man.

Can't say that enough, the level of absurd political correctness claimed its greatest victim

[Eraserhead]

I miss George Allen. He is the man.

Can't say that enough, the level of absurd political correctness claimed its greatest victim

lol good one guys.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Right now - Huckabee.  Who will win?  Romney.

[Mr. Morden]

Is there anyone on this forum who, 1 year ago, would have ever expected the GOP presidential nomination race to be quite this crazy?  I mean, we've had something like 6 different "frontrunners", and now, less than 4 weeks before Iowa, there's absolutely no consensus about who's going to win the nomination.  Did you ever imagine it would be this weird?

And here I thought the 2004 Democratic race was wild, with Dean's unexpected surge, and subsequent meltdown and Kerry victory.  That was nothing compared to this.

[MarkWarner08]

Giuliani.  'frontrunner' is a media designation.  it says little about his actual chances to be nominated.

[Ebowed]

Did you ever imagine it would be this weird?

It's not that weird.  It's more evidence that the GOP is imploding.

No one can agree on a frontrunner for the GOP because all of the candidates are so awful.

[Floridude]

Did you ever imagine it would be this weird?

It's not that weird.  It's more evidence that the GOP is imploding.

No one can agree on a frontrunner for the GOP because all of the candidates are so awful.

Because clearly a chaotic primary fight is the sign of a dying party...In this case the Democrats in the past hundred years would roughly approximate the Kenny character from South Park

[Erc]

Watch the Republican race end up being boring as watching paint dry, in the end...it could easily be "Huckabee wins most every state but NH and UT" at the rate this is going.

[Aizen]

Watch the Republican race end up being boring as watching paint dry, in the end...it could easily be "Huckabee wins most every state but NH and UT" at the rate this is going.

Yup, Huckabee wins, the GOP gets absolutely slaugtered in the GE for electing somebody like that, and hopefully then the Republican Party will wake up and dump the religious right.

[Erc]

Watch the Republican race end up being boring as watching paint dry, in the end...it could easily be "Huckabee wins most every state but NH and UT" at the rate this is going.

Yup, Huckabee wins, the GOP gets absolutely slaugtered in the GE for electing somebody like that, and hopefully then the Republican Party will wake up and dump the religious right.

Since the GOP is going to lose anyway, we might as well lose productively, I suppose.  Shame that that guarantees that Al Franken gets into the Senate on coattails, though.

[opebo]

Watch the Republican race end up being boring as watching paint dry, in the end...it could easily be "Huckabee wins most every state but NH and UT" at the rate this is going.

Yup, Huckabee wins, the GOP gets absolutely slaugtered in the GE for electing somebody like that, and hopefully then the Republican Party will wake up and dump the religious right.

Since the GOP is going to lose anyway, we might as well lose productively, I suppose.  Shame that that guarantees that Al Franken gets into the Senate on coattails, though.

You fellows are wrong - Huckabee is the Republicans best chance, both because he is the sort that appeals to their voters (people like the Mormon and the New York Italian Catholic are useless to them), and because he gives them a shot at Arkansas.  I think he'll still lose Arkansas and the election, but he will do much better than those so called 'moderates'.

The reason is, as I see it, winning PA or NJ is a pipe dream.. even NH is hopeless.  But they can still win with Ohio and Arkansas.

I think the idea of appearing to stand for something works for Republicans as well as Democrats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm pretty sure that there are just as many Americans who would be uncomfortable with a Southern Baptist minister as President than a Mormon, possibly even more.

Most northernors think Southern Baptists are nothing but hordes of intolerant Jerry Falwell wackjobs. You can think that's fair or not, but it's the truth.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Watch the Republican race end up being boring as watching paint dry, in the end...it could easily be "Huckabee wins most every state but NH and UT" at the rate this is going.

Yup, Huckabee wins, the GOP gets absolutely slaugtered in the GE for electing somebody like that, and hopefully then the Republican Party will wake up and dump the religious right.

Since the GOP is going to lose anyway, we might as well lose productively, I suppose.  Shame that that guarantees that Al Franken gets into the Senate on coattails, though.

You fellows are wrong - Huckabee is the Republicans best chance, both because he is the sort that appeals to their voters (people like the Mormon and the New York Italian Catholic are useless to them), and because he gives them a shot at Arkansas.  I think he'll still lose Arkansas and the election, but he will do much better than those so called 'moderates'.

The reason is, as I see it, winning PA or NJ is a pipe dream.. even NH is hopeless.  But they can still win with Ohio and Arkansas.

I think the idea of appearing to stand for something works for Republicans as well as Democrats.

winning PA is hardly a pipe dream .. it is tied in the latest polls and Bush came close to winning it in 2004. Outside of Philadelphia, it is very much a republican state. It is very much in play for a moderate like Giuliani. Not ever election will be like 2004. If Hillary is the Dem nominee, she will win Arkansas most likely even if Huckabee is the GOP nominee, and Huck will have no chance in the north at all. Rudy will bring Wisconsin, PA, NJ, and Conn into play, even if he doesnt win but one of them.