National Early Vote: Gallup

[Cliffy]

15% have cast their vote

romney 52
Obama 46

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

R-37
I-29
D-33

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What?

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup jumps the shark once and for all.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Since that doesn't reflect AT ALL the data we already have, Gallup seems intent on humiliating itself.

[J. J.]

What?

I can believe it.  There are a lot of R states with early voting, and the R's are turning out heavily, proportional to 2008.  

The statistic is meaningless.  

[Niemeyerite]

Haaaaaaaahahaha...

I was afraid Romney 5-point lead in Gallup was, somehow, real.

Not anymore.

[Speed of Sound]

What?

I can believe it.  There are a lot of R states with early voting, and the R's are turning out heavily, proportional to 2008.  

The statistic is meaningless.  

Yeah, JJ has this one. This is as usually as collected "battleground" polls. It tells us nothing about individual states, and quite a few states with early voting should be heavily R. Nothing to see here in any way, just because it tells us truly nothing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

[Minnesota Mike]

What?

I can believe it.  There are a lot of R states with early voting, and the R's are turning out heavily, proportional to 2008.  

The statistic is meaningless.  

Texas, Tennessee, Georgia all  have 30+ % of the likely vote already in.  I can believe Republicans hold an early vote lead nationally but in the swing states Dems are doing just fine.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[Ty440]

as soon as i saw "Cliffy" as the thread starter i knew this was gonna be some b.s.

[DemPGH]

We'll have to check on that. That might be Amarillo, TX.

[Devils30]

The poll suspension gives Gallup a great excuse to start over and maybe sort of get it right.

[Likely Voter]

Anyone else suspect that Cliffy is actually Politico? He showed up the day after Politico disappeared and yet picked up right where he left off.

[J. J.]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

Oh, you think Obama is running up absentee votes in UT and MS? 

[cinyc]

Not surprising.  Remember- most of the Democratic-leaning states in the Northeast don't have early voting.  Meanwhile, the Republican South has early voting.

[LiberalJunkie]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....no

[Cliffy]

Anyone else suspect that Cliffy is actually Politico? He showed up the day after Politico disappeared and yet picked up right where he left off.

We've had this conversation, I'm not politico.

[Gustaf]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

You didn't bother reading the explanation given in the thread? Care to offer some substance for a change, maybe?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

You didn't bother reading the explanation given in the thread? Care to offer some substance for a change, maybe?

Please, Gustaf.......he's a very substantive douchebag.

[Maxwell]

Anyone else suspect that Cliffy is actually Politico? He showed up the day after Politico disappeared and yet picked up right where he left off.

He's not. Politico said awful things like comparing Romney to Reagan and copy pasting Romney's talking points and ect.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

You didn't bother reading the explanation given in the thread? Care to offer some substance for a change, maybe?

You mean besides the fact that virtually every other NATIONAL poll gives Obama a substantial lead among early voters?
No, I've nothing else of substance to add.

But please, feel free to defend JJ's inanities, just like you do with Sarah Palin's. I won't interfere with your affection for reality-defying persons.

[J. J.]

What?

I can believe it.  

Of course you would. That's why you've become our favorite punching bag.

You didn't bother reading the explanation given in the thread? Care to offer some substance for a change, maybe?

You mean besides the fact that virtually every other NATIONAL poll gives Obama a substantial lead among early voters?
No, I've nothing else of substance to add.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Please, Gustaf.......he's a very substantive douchebag.

Grumps, you were right.   

[JohnCA246]

These numbers aren't that surprising, and may even explain why Romney is doing well on national "likely voter" models.

I wouldn't even be surprised if Romney does well in early voting in non swing-states like California, though I have no idea what the numbers are. I just can't imagine a large percentage of people wanting to go to the L.A. Board of Elections in such a large city.

Ohio it is a different story.  Too many memories of long lines in 2004, combined with constant knocks on your door, and phone bankers makes it seem more urgent for urban Democratic voters. Plus, downtown Cleveland or Columbus is not much of a drive, and well connected by mass-transit (at least in Cleveland). College orgs often shuttle students to the board of elections to vote.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Would you actually care to site a national poll that says this?  This is the only one I've heard of and it is pretty meaningless, so other pollsters don't do it.  Gallup just had some free time on its hands. 

In their last day the IPSOS/Reuters poll found Obama ahead among early voters 58-39.

Today's PPP poll finds Obama ahead among early voters 59-41.

IIRC, the last NBC/WSJ poll also found Obama winning among early voters, albeit by a narrower margin.

Oh, and next time try to quote properly. You aren't a newbie around here.

[JohnCA246]

I think I'll take back my post, after reading the other poll numbers.