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  Zogby launches final-week tracker for the US, FL, OH and VA
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Author Topic: Zogby launches final-week tracker for the US, FL, OH and VA  (Read 9739 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 30, 2012, 01:10:53 am »

DAY 1:

USA

2-way: 47.4% Romney, 46.0% Obama
5-way: 45.8% Romney, 44.6% Obama, 2.0% Johnson, 0.9% Stein, 0.2% Goode

The new three-day rolling average of 1,076 U.S. likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of U.S. Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 28.1% independents; 74.3% white, 10% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 39% age 30-49, 25% age 50-64, and 18% age 65+.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,076 is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

FLORIDA

2-way: 48.4% Romney, 46.7% Obama
5-way: 47.5% Romney, 46.2% Obama, 1.6% Johnson, 0.8% Stein, 0.2% Goode

The new three-day rolling average of 827 Florida likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Florida Likely Voters sampled 35% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 28% independents; 70% white, 15% Hispanic, and 13% African American; and 15% age 18-29, 34% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 23% age 65+.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

OHIO

2-way: 49.5% Obama, 45.9% Romney
5-way: 48.2% Obama, 44.0% Romney, 2.6% Johnson, 1.3% Stein, 0.7% Goode

The new three-day rolling average of 827 Ohio likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 16.9% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28.1% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

VIRGINIA

2-way: 48.4% Obama, 47.1% Romney
5-way: 48.1% Obama, 46.0% Romney, 1.1% Goode, 0.9% Johnson, 0.5% Stein

The new three-day rolling average of 827 Virginia likely voters, conducted online from Friday (October 26) through Sunday (October 28), has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points.

The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Virginia Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 71% white, 6% Hispanic, and 19% African American; and 18% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 32% age 50-64, and 12% age 65+.

Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 827 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.

http://www.jzanalytics.com
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2012, 01:14:33 am »

weird numbers with Romney leading PV and Obama leading in Ohio and Virginia.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2012, 01:16:33 am »

weird numbers with Romney leading PV and Obama leading in Ohio and Virginia.

It could be true if Obama is not doing so well in his "safe" states and Romney doing better in his "safe" southern and western states.

Especially if Obama is only ahead by 15 or so in CA and in MA ...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2012, 01:21:51 am »

No!!!!!!!!! Make it stop!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2012, 01:28:16 am »

NO MORE TRACKERS!!!!
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2012, 04:26:40 am »

The numbers seem to be about right. The pollster doesn't.
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ajb
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2012, 09:47:28 am »

I'm worried that there isn't enough time left in the campaign for Zogby to show insane results.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2012, 09:49:23 am »

We needed some comic relief. 
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2012, 11:26:48 am »

Zogby + Internet polling + Newsmax, all bundled together.

What more really needs to be said?

 


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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2012, 11:37:07 am »

I'm worried that there isn't enough time left in the campaign for Zogby to show insane results.

Don't worry! - Planet Z is not subject to the same laws of physics as other parts of the known Universe.

Plenty of time for crazy and insane results.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2012, 01:06:13 pm »

I'm worried that there isn't enough time left in the campaign for Zogby to show insane results.

Don't worry! - Planet Z is not subject to the same laws of physics as other parts of the known Universe.

Plenty of time for crazy and insane results.

I am living on Channel Zzzzzzzzzzzzz...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6BpPx05YyQ
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2012, 01:26:52 pm »

Zogby's polls can probably be thrown right in the trash.  Their final poll had Kerry winning Tennessee, Arkansas and Colarado while losing Ohio by six points. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2012, 01:30:36 pm »

In the past Zogby polls have been a joke. This season (mostly) they seem not too crazy, but you dont know if it is the broken clock effect or are they actually getting better.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2012, 01:31:17 pm »

Zogby's polls can probably be thrown right in the trash.  Their final poll had Kerry winning Tennessee, Arkansas and Colarado while losing Ohio by six points. 

wow, I thought that poll was a myth. But sure enough, it's on the RCP archives. Kerry leads by 1.9 in August 2004! Did they only poll Nashville?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2012, 02:06:02 pm »

DAY 2:

USA

2-way: 47.1% Romney, 45.9% Obama
5-way: 45.2% Romney, 44.9% Obama, 2.2% Johnson, 1.0% Stein, 0.8% Goode

FLORIDA

2-way: 48.0% Obama, 47.0% Romney
5-way: 47.4% Obama, 46.7% Romney, 1.7% Johnson, 0.4% Stein, 0.0% Goode

OHIO

2-way: 48.9% Obama, 45.2% Romney
5-way: 46.8% Obama, 43.6% Romney, 2.5% Johnson, 1.4% Stein, 1.3% Goode

VIRGINIA

2-way: 48.8% Romney, 45.1% Obama
5-way: 47.4% Romney, 45.3% Obama, 1.2% Goode, 1.1% Johnson, 0.3% Stein

http://www.jzanalytics.com
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DL
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2012, 02:27:06 pm »

In the past Zogby polls have been a joke. This season (mostly) they seem not too crazy, but you dont know if it is the broken clock effect or are they actually getting better.

I think Zogby was "ahead of his time" in trying to do online polls for elections as far back as 2004 when that methodology was still in its infancy and the online panels had all kinds of skews. Its now 2012 and the online panels are vastly better and more reliable - so i don't think there is any reason to believe Zogby is less reliable this year than anyone else doing online polls
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2012, 03:24:05 pm »

Zogby was okay in 2008 wasn't it?
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Andrew1
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2012, 03:41:07 pm »

It's only day 2 and we're all over the place, Obama moving ahead in Florida, but taking a big drop in Virginia, nice work Zogby
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2012, 04:14:45 pm »

I think you can see the effects of the hurricane on NOVA in their VA results from yesterday.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2012, 04:19:18 pm »

Zogby was okay in 2008 wasn't it?

Zogby was on par with Gallup ... make of that what you will.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2012, 04:23:10 pm »

It's only day 2 and we're all over the place, Obama moving ahead in Florida, but taking a big drop in Virginia, nice work Zogby

Sandy?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2012, 04:28:04 pm »

Zogby was okay in 2008 wasn't it?

All over the place in 2008. One day they would have Obama up 12, then he would fall to just being up four the next day.  

Their final national poll had Obama up 54%-43%.  
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2012, 05:04:40 pm »

Zogby's "fun and games" in 2004 with the fake polls based upon leaked exit poll results was such a black mark that he simply cannot ever been forgiven.

I don't care if it was 8 years ago or 108 years ago.  the man has no honour.
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dirks
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2012, 05:15:12 pm »

Is this all internet based polls? Zogby used to flood my inbox with this crap

and to all of my email accounts as well. I could've given 4 votes to romney if I actually cared to fill out his surveys. How is that the least bit accurate?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2012, 08:11:14 pm »

If this was by a pollster with a better track record, this would be amazing evidence for the likelyhood of a ev/pv split.
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