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  Zogby launches final-week tracker for the US, FL, OH and VA
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Author Topic: Zogby launches final-week tracker for the US, FL, OH and VA  (Read 9733 times)
Holmes
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2012, 07:11:17 am »

I was thinking this might end up alright, but after the sizable second day swings, probably not.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2012, 07:18:18 am »

I was thinking this might end up alright,

That was your first mistake.
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J. J.
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2012, 09:22:25 am »

Zogby was okay in 2008 wasn't it?

Not terrible, but still way off.  It went from a total joke to third rate. 
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2012, 01:14:08 pm »

Day 3 (10/28-10/30):

Florida: Obama 47.7% (-0.3%), Romney 47.4% (+0.4%)
Ohio: Obama 50.4% (+1.5%), Romney 44.3% (-0.9%)
Virginia: Romney 47.8% (-1.0%), Obama 46.7% (+1.6%)

National: Romney 48.3% (+1.2%), Obama 45.1% (-0.8%)
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Umengus
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2012, 01:18:40 pm »

Day 3 (10/28-10/30):

Florida: Obama 47.7% (-0.3%), Romney 47.4% (+0.4%)
Ohio: Obama 50.4% (+1.5%), Romney 44.3% (-0.9%)
Virginia: Romney 47.8% (-1.0%), Obama 46.7% (+1.6%)

National: Romney 48.3% (+1.2%), Obama 45.1% (-0.8%)

lol
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Cliffy
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2012, 01:20:50 pm »

I'm really surprised you guys would sticky Zogby polls, kinda sad reflection.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2012, 01:49:36 pm »

These swings are ridiculous.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2012, 02:10:52 pm »

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2012, 01:58:28 pm »

Day 4:

47% Obama (+2)
47% Romney (-1)

47% Obama (+2)
46% Romney (-1)
  2% Johnson (nc)
  1% Goode (nc)
  1% Stein (nc)

Numbers for FL, OH, VA not yet posted.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2012, 02:08:08 pm »

Obamamentum.
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ajb
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2012, 10:36:50 pm »

Day 4:

47% Obama (+2)
47% Romney (-1)

47% Obama (+2)
46% Romney (-1)
  2% Johnson (nc)
  1% Goode (nc)
  1% Stein (nc)

Numbers for FL, OH, VA not yet posted.

FL/OH/VA still not posted. Did Zogby get bored with polling them? Or were his results to embarrassingly crazy, even for him?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2012, 07:27:15 am »

Day 5:

48-46 Obama/Romney (+1, -1)

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/zogby-obama-romney-poll/2012/11/02/id/462507

Obama/Sandymentum !
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2012, 12:37:33 pm »

It does your side very little good to actively attribute Obama's gains to Sandy. He's probably going to win anyway, but you're just giving us an excuse to blame Romney's loss on the storm. If that's the path y'all want to go down, fine.

"It was Sandy's fault."
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2012, 01:15:16 pm »

It does your side very little good to actively attribute Obama's gains to Sandy. He's probably going to win anyway, but you're just giving us an excuse to blame Romney's loss on the storm. If that's the path y'all want to go down, fine.

"It was Sandy's fault."

That's what Cliffi, Politico (when he comes back), Winfield, Dirks and you will say when Romney loses, anyway.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2012, 03:11:59 pm »

All Sandy did was at most close Romney's last possible door. The fact that Romney was still standing outside before that is far more of an idictment of him and his campaign then anything with regards to the impact of the storm, which basically just froze things in place, possibly gave a Obama a small bounce. Romney needed to bounce back in the last week in the state by state polling this week to have a chance.

I think looking back, what sealed the deal was Romney's flawed strategy in the second debate and his failure to put away the Auto issue at the beginning of the season (preferrably back in or before the primary season too), which is what blocked him off in Ohio. With OH not there for him, his balloon began to wilt costing him VA and possibly FL as well as his chances to get NH, IA, CO, and/or WI which were all on the table after the first debate, or seriously compete in MI, MN or PA. Just ceding the Hispanic vote to Obama overall cost Romney NV and NM and made CO that much more difficult, as well as putting AZ on verge of at risk. Angering the Paulites, rather than bringing them to the table hurt in NV, NM, CO, IA and NH. Going too far to try and outmauevered Rick and Newt made him just as bad to many of the same swing voters, for which initially he was a more palatable choice to, as they were. 

Romney will probably do better in the popular vote and the electoral college then John McCain. He will probably have done a better job rallying base of off opposition to Obama, who scares the hell out of both factions of the GOP base, then McCain did off of support and love for Palin who one part of the base loved and the other part were scared by. He will have done a better job in terms of organizing both on the ground in general and in the early vote, raising money, and socking it to Obama (even when the facts were tenuous at best). However, when your standard of comparison is a 7% PV loss and a near 2-1 rout in the electoral college, just "doing better" isn't enough.

A mismanaged Presidential campaign and a basketfull of not ready for primetime Senate candidates, turned what should have been the year Republicans finished the job, and instead possibly put the party all the way back to 2009. The irony is that the GOP did get some good picks, but in states that the toplines preclude like CT, PA, and NM. A bunch of bad picks in swing states (unlike in a 2010 where all the swing state picks turned out to be great save for out west, even the TP backed swing state candidates like Toomey and Rubio could have a case to be made that they did more to help the GOP then hurt them in some way) and some even worse picks in the GOP territory have created a situation where just breaking even would be a miracle, when gains approaching double digits were plausible going in.

Part of the problem for the GOP is that it relied on short term fundamentals, like the cyclical conditions of the economy and popular opposition to a key piece of the Democratic agenda to base their success off of, rather than trying to play on a longer term paradigm. Things were heading in the right direction in 2009, where things got off track again was when victory just fell into the hands of the GOP in 2010.

What is worrisome is what will come to follow. You will have the "enlightened" establishment arguing for the emasculation of the base and the base for the execution of the establishment. Both will be nearly completely wrong in proscribing in their treatment of the other.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2012, 04:15:29 pm »

It does your side very little good to actively attribute Obama's gains to Sandy. He's probably going to win anyway, but you're just giving us an excuse to blame Romney's loss on the storm. If that's the path y'all want to go down, fine.

"It was Sandy's fault."

That's what Cliffi, Politico (when he comes back), Winfield, Dirks and you will say when Romney loses, anyway.

Only if that's what some Obamatons are actually attributing his win to, as Tender seemed to do.

In all honesty, I already blame Romney's ultimate loss on two things: his poor showing in the second debate, and Rick Santorum's overblown religiosity in the primaries.
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Badger
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« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2012, 09:25:42 pm »

It does your side very little good to actively attribute Obama's gains to Sandy. He's probably going to win anyway, but you're just giving us an excuse to blame Romney's loss on the storm. If that's the path y'all want to go down, fine.

"It was Sandy's fault."

That's what Cliffi, Politico (when he comes back), Winfield, Dirks and you will say when Romney loses, anyway.

Only if that's what some Obamatons are actually attributing his win to, as Tender seemed to do.

In all honesty, I already blame Romney's ultimate loss on two things: his poor showing in the second debate, and Rick Santorum's overblown religiosity in the primaries.

How did the latter hurt Romney in this general election? Forced Romney too far to the right on social issues? In fairness Huckabee and the religious right wing already did that 4 years ago.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2012, 10:08:42 pm »

I think the the whole Catholic-contraceptives-Obamacare thing really sunk Romney with women in an unrecoverable kind of way. Had Santorum not made that issue the focus of the campaign, I expect things would have looked quite a bit different.
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Umengus
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« Reply #43 on: November 04, 2012, 12:48:45 pm »

zogby sunday

Obama: 47
Romney: 47

Romney leads Indies by 12
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J. J.
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« Reply #44 on: November 04, 2012, 03:58:40 pm »

zogby sunday

Obama: 47
Romney: 47

Romney leads Indies by 12

Wonderful!  Oh, wait ....

IT'S ZOBGY!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #45 on: November 05, 2012, 11:32:57 am »

Latest numbers:

USA

2-way: 48-46 Romney/Obama
5-way: 47-45-2-1-1 Romney/Obama/Johnson/Stein/Goode

FL

2-way: 50-45 Obama/Romney
5-way: 49-45-1-1-0 Obama/Romney/Stein/Johnson/Goode

OH

2-way: 50-44 Obama/Romney
5-way: 49-43-2-1-1 Obama/Romney/Johnson/Stein/Goode

VA

2-way: 52-44 Obama/Romney
5-way: 50-42-2-0-0 Obama/Romney/Johnson/Stein/Goode

http://www.jzanalytics.com
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2012, 11:39:34 am »

Isn't it virtually impossible to trail nationwide by 2 and be ahead by 5-8 in FLOHVA ?

I guess this is because it's ZOGBY ... Tongue
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ajb
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« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2012, 11:43:38 am »

Isn't it virtually impossible to trail nationwide by 2 and be ahead by 5-8 in FLOHVA ?

I guess this is because it's ZOGBY ... Tongue
I knew if we were patient, Zogby would pull through with something crazy. He knows his audience.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2012, 03:19:09 pm »

Isn't it virtually impossible to trail nationwide by 2 and be ahead by 5-8 in FLOHVA ?

I guess this is because it's ZOGBY ... Tongue

Not only that but he had a 6-point national swing in three days. These polls are worthless.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2012, 05:24:55 pm »

Romney's best national poll result is from Zogby LOL
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