GA-Landmark Comm/Rosetta Stone: Romney +11

[Adam Griffin]

This poll was commissioned by WSBTV in Atlanta, but they are currently only listing the Amendment 1 results on their website. However, Mark Rountree is the head guy at Landmark Communications and he posted these results on his account @ Peach Pundit:

Romney: 53%
Obama: 42%

10/25/12
500 LV
MoE: 4.3%

No crosstabs, but here are some highlights:

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[Adam Griffin]

Landmark is a Republican firm. Some of these numbers are insane. 22% of blacks support Romney? The Romney win among 18-35 years old is probably correct, though; I believe McCain won the 18-30 demographic in Georgia by a point or so in 2008 exit polls.

[SPQR]

22% of blacks for Romney?

[Adam Griffin]

22% of blacks for Romney?

Yeah, it's got to be way off. This is actually great news (if you pick and choose):

In some states, this statistical noise is okay, but here it can really mess with the numbers. Blacks will easily be 30% of the electorate in this election, and the difference between 75% black support versus 95% black support in GA is about 6 points for Obama. So, within the other parameters of the poll, changing that would make it a toss-up.

It was also noted in his post that blacks were 31% of the surveyed group. If Obama is holding at 42% while losing 1/4 of African-Americans, then that sounds pretty good when it comes to his level of white support (~28% overall among the remaining 69% of those surveyed).

[LastVoter]

Not quite liberated yet, and probably won't be in 2016.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I assume as long as the Party ID is fine, none of our resident "omg GLORIOUS NEWS!" posse will see anything wrong with Romney winning more than 20% of the black vote...

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Not quite liberated yet, and probably won't be in 2016.

If we run Hillary or another Southerner it wil be.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was one of the respondents in this poll!

Personal view from the Atlanta suburbs: Romney will certainly win Georgia, and by more than McCain did.  The poll topline feels about right.  But I think this support is more anti-Obama than pro-Romney.  There seems to be little enthusiasm for Romney/Ryan among my conservative friends, while they were very enthusiastic about McCain/Palin in 2008.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I was one of the respondents in this poll!

Personal view from the Atlanta suburbs: Romney will certainly win Georgia, and by more than McCain did.  The poll topline feels about right.  But I think this support is more anti-Obama than pro-Romney.  There seems to be little enthusiasm for Romney/Ryan among my conservative friends, while they were very enthusiastic about McCain/Palin in 2008.

How do you feel about the AA sample?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was one of the respondents in this poll!

Personal view from the Atlanta suburbs: Romney will certainly win Georgia, and by more than McCain did.  The poll topline feels about right.  But I think this support is more anti-Obama than pro-Romney.  There seems to be little enthusiasm for Romney/Ryan among my conservative friends, while they were very enthusiastic about McCain/Palin in 2008.

How do you feel about the AA sample?

I'd be very surprised if Romney gets close to 22% of the AA vote here;  I wonder what the subsample size was.  But I could see AA turnout being down from 2008. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

It will be down, but not significantly. Obama being on the ballot keeps the Democrats up quite a bit.

[ajb]

Obama made a play for GA in 2008, and he isn't doing that now, so his campaign won't be pushing turnout as heavily here as they were four years ago.
But I'd also be very surprised if GA Af-Am voters voted this differently from Af-Am voters in the rest of the country.

[LastVoter]

Not quite liberated yet, and probably won't be in 2016.

If we run Hillary or another Southerner it wil be.

I don't think you understand what we are trying to liberate Georgia from.

[old timey villain]

There is absolutely no chance that Romney will win anything close to 22% of the black vote in Georgia, or in any state.

If the 28% white support is accurate then Georgia will be surprisingly close.

[Adam Griffin]

I wonder what the subsample size was.  But I could see AA turnout being down from 2008.  

31% (155 respondents). As of Friday, black turnout was down in early voting by about a point when compared to 2008. For some reason, the GMU Early Voting GA data hasn't been updated since Sunday, and my spreadsheet viewer won't show more than 1,000,000 or so entries from the raw data.

There is absolutely no chance that Romney will win anything close to 22% of the black vote in Georgia, or in any state.

If the 28% white support is accurate then Georgia will be surprisingly close.

Well, within the confines of this poll (when you assume 75% black Obama support and fill in the variables) it is 28% - and that would include 'other' as well. So actual white support might be a tad lower, say 25-26%, but still a good number. Of course, one has to ask how accurate any of this might be when you consider that the poll says 22% of GA blacks support Romney. If anything, the GA black electorate would be more Democratic than the national average.