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Author Topic: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead  (Read 1740 times)
krazen1211
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« on: October 30, 2012, 09:57:09 am »
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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4


Tarkanian 47
Horsford 42

Romney 48
Obama 48



Great news! If Romney is anywhere close to tied with this district he is most certainly competitive in the state, due to their great crossover appeal.
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2012, 10:03:51 am »
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Krazen, I've pretty much parsed what you're getting at, but who are 'they' in this context? Romney and Ryan? Romney and Tarkanian? Some other pair or group of people?
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Professor Nathan. A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights. Can you really trust him?

Yeah that's right, I said Siam. Why don't you go tell Pedro Martinez
krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2012, 10:17:22 am »
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My good sir, 'they' is Mr. Tarkanian and Mr. Romney. This district is 46D 32R by registration, far more Democratic than the state, which is 42D 35R.

Both of them are winning 11% of Democrats which is certainly outstanding and I would not have predicted that to occur.
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People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2012, 10:20:52 am »
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Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2012, 10:23:42 am by Senator North Carolina Yankee »Logged

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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2012, 10:48:16 am »
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Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.


That is certainly true given that this district is more Hispanic than the poll.

Of course, the latest statistics show that thus far the GOP has done a better job at GOTV in Clark County.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2012, 12:08:06 pm »
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If Romney is tied here, he is probably winning the state.  Bush won this district by something like a 1,000 votes in 2004 and win the state 51%-48%. 
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2012, 12:26:01 pm »
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Absolutely no way Romney is tied here, sorry.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2012, 01:13:11 pm »
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If Romney is tied here, he is probably winning the state.  Bush won this district by something like a 1,000 votes in 2004 and win the state 51%-48%. 

Yes, that is consistent with a Romney surge in the west.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2012, 05:51:14 pm »
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SurveyUSA has a terrible track record in Nevada. Tarkanian might win this race after all, but Romney will lose Nevada and this district.
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Vice President PiT
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 04:35:19 am »
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Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.

     He ran for the nomination and lost to Angle.
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People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2012, 06:35:57 am »
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Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.

     He ran for the nomination and lost to Angle.

The Tarkanian campaign in 2010 and the one here are like in completely different leagues.

Are you not familiar with that saying?

A person does horribly one year and then comes back much stronger so you say, "Where was this guy back in...". That was my point. Tongue
« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 06:37:42 am by Senator North Carolina Yankee »Logged

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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2012, 05:37:42 pm »
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This campaign in 1 tweet.

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
So @StevenHorsford just sent out a $ pitch asking people to "keep Illinois 12th district Democratic." Um, he's running in #nv04.
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People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2012, 11:46:40 pm »
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lol, he plagiarized a fundraising email. Damn that is rich. Smiley
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2012, 10:14:16 am »
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And here is another serious pollster that gets caught with his pants down in Nevada.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2012, 06:55:06 am »
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Horsford won ?

Weekend already and I haven't checked a lot of House results yet ... Tongue
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2012, 07:40:01 am »
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Horsford won ?

Weekend already and I haven't checked a lot of House results yet ... Tongue

Rather comfortably. Jon Ralston nailed that one too.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
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