NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:30:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 House Election Polls
  NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead  (Read 2600 times)
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 30, 2012, 09:57:09 AM »

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4


Tarkanian 47
Horsford 42

Romney 48
Obama 48



Great news! If Romney is anywhere close to tied with this district he is most certainly competitive in the state, due to their great crossover appeal.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,248


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2012, 10:03:51 AM »

Krazen, I've pretty much parsed what you're getting at, but who are 'they' in this context? Romney and Ryan? Romney and Tarkanian? Some other pair or group of people?
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2012, 10:17:22 AM »

My good sir, 'they' is Mr. Tarkanian and Mr. Romney. This district is 46D 32R by registration, far more Democratic than the state, which is 42D 35R.

Both of them are winning 11% of Democrats which is certainly outstanding and I would not have predicted that to occur.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2012, 10:20:52 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2012, 10:23:42 AM by Senator North Carolina Yankee »

Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2012, 10:48:16 AM »

Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.


That is certainly true given that this district is more Hispanic than the poll.

Of course, the latest statistics show that thus far the GOP has done a better job at GOTV in Clark County.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,542


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2012, 12:08:06 PM »

If Romney is tied here, he is probably winning the state.  Bush won this district by something like a 1,000 votes in 2004 and win the state 51%-48%. 
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2012, 12:26:01 PM »

Absolutely no way Romney is tied here, sorry.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2012, 01:13:11 PM »

If Romney is tied here, he is probably winning the state.  Bush won this district by something like a 1,000 votes in 2004 and win the state 51%-48%. 

Yes, that is consistent with a Romney surge in the west.
Logged
Talleyrand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,517


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2012, 05:51:14 PM »

SurveyUSA has a terrible track record in Nevada. Tarkanian might win this race after all, but Romney will lose Nevada and this district.
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,135
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 04:35:19 AM »

Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.

     He ran for the nomination and lost to Angle.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2012, 06:35:57 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2012, 06:37:42 AM by Senator North Carolina Yankee »

Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.

     He ran for the nomination and lost to Angle.

The Tarkanian campaign in 2010 and the one here are like in completely different leagues.

Are you not familiar with that saying?

A person does horribly one year and then comes back much stronger so you say, "Where was this guy back in...". That was my point. Tongue
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2012, 05:37:42 PM »

This campaign in 1 tweet.

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
So @StevenHorsford just sent out a $ pitch asking people to "keep Illinois 12th district Democratic." Um, he's running in #nv04.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2012, 11:46:40 PM »

lol, he plagiarized a fundraising email. Damn that is rich. Smiley
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2012, 10:14:16 AM »

And here is another serious pollster that gets caught with his pants down in Nevada.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2012, 06:55:06 AM »

Horsford won ?

Weekend already and I haven't checked a lot of House results yet ... Tongue
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2012, 07:40:01 AM »

Horsford won ?

Weekend already and I haven't checked a lot of House results yet ... Tongue

Rather comfortably. Jon Ralston nailed that one too.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 16 queries.