NV-04, SUSA: Tarkanian in the lead

[krazen1211]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4


Tarkanian 47
Horsford 42

Romney 48
Obama 48



Great news! If Romney is anywhere close to tied with this district he is most certainly competitive in the state, due to their great crossover appeal.

[krazen1211]

My good sir, 'they' is Mr. Tarkanian and Mr. Romney. This district is 46D 32R by registration, far more Democratic than the state, which is 42D 35R.

Both of them are winning 11% of Democrats which is certainly outstanding and I would not have predicted that to occur.

[krazen1211]

Tark is running 5% ahead of Romney here, that may or may not be enough. But this could be a real close one on a election night.


If there was ever a Hispanic underpoll in this district it will be here in the 4th, which has North Las Vegas.

Where was this Tark in 2010? He would have almost certainly beaten "Chickens for Healthcare" Lowden and been the surging challenger at the last minute, rather than Angle.

That is certainly true given that this district is more Hispanic than the poll.

Of course, the latest statistics show that thus far the GOP has done a better job at GOTV in Clark County.

[krazen1211]

If Romney is tied here, he is probably winning the state.  Bush won this district by something like a 1,000 votes in 2004 and win the state 51%-48%. 

Yes, that is consistent with a Romney surge in the west.

[krazen1211]

This campaign in 1 tweet.

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
So @StevenHorsford just sent out a $ pitch asking people to "keep Illinois 12th district Democratic." Um, he's running in #nv04.