Quinnipiac last polls for OH, VA, and FL tomorrow morning (7 AM)
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  Quinnipiac last polls for OH, VA, and FL tomorrow morning (7 AM)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac last polls for OH, VA, and FL tomorrow morning (7 AM)  (Read 7087 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #50 on: October 31, 2012, 02:34:19 AM »
« edited: October 31, 2012, 02:36:04 AM by Lief »

Full results: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/31/us/politics/31poll-results-documents.html?ref=politics

Ohio
Obama 50
Romney 45

Virginia
Obama 49
Romney 47

Florida
Obama 48
Romney 47

Four more years.

In the Senate, Nelson leads Mack 52-39, Brown leads Mandel 51-42, Kaine leads Allen 50-46.
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Franzl
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« Reply #51 on: October 31, 2012, 02:35:42 AM »

Ohio is looking great. And Virginia...well, there's a difference between being tied or DOWN a few points constantly....and maintaining a narrow but constant lead in the polls. Obama is doing the latter and if he gets OH and VA, well....
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philly09
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« Reply #52 on: October 31, 2012, 02:41:00 AM »

The actual number for Ohio early voting is 17.4%.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #53 on: October 31, 2012, 02:49:07 AM »

Pulchritudinous news!
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Seriously?
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« Reply #54 on: October 31, 2012, 02:59:32 AM »

Full results: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/31/us/politics/31poll-results-documents.html?ref=politics

Ohio
Obama 50
Romney 45

Virginia
Obama 49
Romney 47

Florida
Obama 48
Romney 47

Four more years.

In the Senate, Nelson leads Mack 52-39, Brown leads Mandel 51-42, Kaine leads Allen 50-46.
Missed it by THAT much.

Ohio: Obama +5 (nailed)
Virginia:Obama +3 (-1 O)
Florida: Obama +1 (nailed)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #55 on: October 31, 2012, 03:02:07 AM »

The actual number for Ohio early voting is 17.4%.
GMU has it at 21.8% through Friday as compared to the '08 actual vote.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #56 on: October 31, 2012, 03:10:20 AM »

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Sbane
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« Reply #57 on: October 31, 2012, 05:48:51 AM »

wow 'Seriously' you are a bit thick aren't you?

No, actually pollsters call numbers randomly and amass a pool of adult responses.  They then reweight the poll to census data. So if they get 60% women responding they adjust the weight.   Bear in mind that over 90% of respondents do not agree to take the survey. This issue of response rate has become a big problem. There is some evidence that there is some response bias after certain events like conventions where those of a particular political persuasion are more enthused and more likely to agree to be polled. But again the pollster does not map anything out before they begin calling except to make sure their calls are balanced geographically.

The fundamental misunderstanding with the new attack on polling is a belief that pollsters predetermine what the party ID makeup will be. The only pollsters who do that are Rasmussen and the Battleground poll.
I am not talking about party identification. Most pollsters do not touch party ID. However, do adjust adjust polling for race, gender, age, etc. If they use solely census data for that, their methodology is likely flawed.

Turnout does not equal census data as all races, ages and even gender do not vote equally. Women vote more than men. Whites vote more than Hispanics. Old people vote more than young people.

At the end of the day, no matter how many phone calls you make, the data is never perfect.

There has to be some sort of judgment call made and the data has to be raked to mirror some reasonable expectation of what the electorate will be.

Do you have any evidence that pollsters are getting race and age demographics wrong?
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Holmes
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« Reply #58 on: October 31, 2012, 06:55:21 AM »

Four more years.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #59 on: October 31, 2012, 07:25:57 AM »

Stick a fork in Mitt, he's most definitely done.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #60 on: October 31, 2012, 07:41:38 AM »

If President Obama can pull off a 5-point margin, I would expect a fairly early call, just like 2008.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #61 on: October 31, 2012, 08:01:14 AM »

2012 Presidential election: President Obama will be re-elected. Republicans flip IN; NC and NE-02 maybe.

US Senate: Democratic majority preserved.

House of Representatives: too little data.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #62 on: October 31, 2012, 08:01:57 AM »

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2012-10-29

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #63 on: October 31, 2012, 08:01:57 AM »

New Poll: Virginia President by Quinnipiac University on 2012-10-29

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Torie
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« Reply #64 on: October 31, 2012, 08:32:03 AM »

2012 Presidential election: President Obama will be re-elected. Republicans flip IN; NC and NE-02 maybe.

US Senate: Democratic majority preserved.

House of Representatives: too little data.

Oh, you know in your heart of hearts that it is going to flip too. Why hold back?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #65 on: October 31, 2012, 09:01:20 AM »

2012 Presidential election: President Obama will be re-elected. Republicans flip IN; NC and NE-02 maybe.

US Senate: Democratic majority preserved.

House of Representatives: too little data.

We're not winning the House, dude. More's the pity.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #66 on: October 31, 2012, 09:08:24 AM »

If President Obama can pull off a 5-point margin, I would expect a fairly early call, just like 2008.

I think it's going to be so similar to 2008 that it gets called before PA and MI... around 8:30 or so. 
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Badger
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« Reply #67 on: October 31, 2012, 09:34:27 AM »

Something to note here. Per CNN's exit poll, 10% of voters decided presidential candidate to vote for in the last week of the election, including 3% over the weekend and 4% on Election Day itself.

Standard caveat regarding MOE, and there appears (maybe) to be a smaller undecided vote (i.e. a more stratified electorate) than in 08, but lets not discount the real possiblity of undecideds breaking strongly for Romney (or against Obama) over the weekend being enough to push Mitt over the top.

Mind you, that's what Romney absolutely needs at this point to win; even a mere "respectable, but not heavy" majority of undecideds going for Romney this week might flip CO and FL, but ultimately still means four more years.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #68 on: October 31, 2012, 09:40:06 AM »

Great news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #69 on: October 31, 2012, 09:43:27 AM »

Something to note here. Per CNN's exit poll, 10% of voters decided presidential candidate to vote for in the last week of the election, including 3% over the weekend and 4% on Election Day itself.

Standard caveat regarding MOE, and there appears (maybe) to be a smaller undecided vote (i.e. a more stratified electorate) than in 08, but lets not discount the real possiblity of undecideds breaking strongly for Romney (or against Obama) over the weekend being enough to push Mitt over the top.

Mind you, that's what Romney absolutely needs at this point to win; even a mere "respectable, but not heavy" majority of undecideds going for Romney this week might flip CO and FL, but ultimately still means four more years.

Undecideds don't necessarily break against the incumbent.  They went 57-41 for Bush in 2004 IIRC.
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Sbane
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« Reply #70 on: October 31, 2012, 09:47:44 AM »

There is no real reason for undecideds to go towards Romney. I think a lot could depend on if more Romney leaning undecideds show up than Obama leaning undecideds. Now there is a possibility of that occurring.
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Badger
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« Reply #71 on: October 31, 2012, 09:49:40 AM »

Something to note here. Per CNN's exit poll, 10% of voters decided presidential candidate to vote for in the last week of the election, including 3% over the weekend and 4% on Election Day itself.

Standard caveat regarding MOE, and there appears (maybe) to be a smaller undecided vote (i.e. a more stratified electorate) than in 08, but lets not discount the real possiblity of undecideds breaking strongly for Romney (or against Obama) over the weekend being enough to push Mitt over the top.

Mind you, that's what Romney absolutely needs at this point to win; even a mere "respectable, but not heavy" majority of undecideds going for Romney this week might flip CO and FL, but ultimately still means four more years.

Undecideds don't necessarily break against the incumbent.  They went 57-41 for Bush in 2004 IIRC.

Absolutely correct. I almost included the explicit caveat that I'm not buying into the meme of some posters that "undecideds always break heavily against the incumbent, and will do so this year". Rather, I'm just saying in this political and economic environment that's still a realistic possiblity for Romney (and now even a necessity for him as well).
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Badger
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« Reply #72 on: October 31, 2012, 10:01:10 AM »

There is no real reason for undecideds to go towards Romney. I think a lot could depend on if more Romney leaning undecideds show up than Obama leaning undecideds. Now there is a possibility of that occurring.

Turnout will be crucial, of course, but I'm not sure that's the end of it. Don't you think late undecideds could heavily shift given the painfully lingering economic problems and general perception that Obama was a disappointment in delivering the sweeping changes he promised (even embodied)? I understand there are contrary Democratic arguments to be made (e.g. economy finally now showing tangible signs of growth, obstructionist GOP fillabustering, Romney would be worse, etc), but considering the typical late undecided at this point was likely an 08 Obama voter who remains soured out of disappointment with the economy and percieved lack of sweeping change, couldn't they realistically largely abandon Obama?
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ajb
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« Reply #73 on: October 31, 2012, 10:21:10 AM »

There is no real reason for undecideds to go towards Romney. I think a lot could depend on if more Romney leaning undecideds show up than Obama leaning undecideds. Now there is a possibility of that occurring.

Turnout will be crucial, of course, but I'm not sure that's the end of it. Don't you think late undecideds could heavily shift given the painfully lingering economic problems and general perception that Obama was a disappointment in delivering the sweeping changes he promised (even embodied)? I understand there are contrary Democratic arguments to be made (e.g. economy finally now showing tangible signs of growth, obstructionist GOP fillabustering, Romney would be worse, etc), but considering the typical late undecided at this point was likely an 08 Obama voter who remains soured out of disappointment with the economy and percieved lack of sweeping change, couldn't they realistically largely abandon Obama?
Nothing's off the table till all the votes are counted. But every day and every poll (and every early voter) makes it just that little bit less likely.
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dirks
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« Reply #74 on: October 31, 2012, 10:25:54 AM »

D+7
D+8
D+8

good luck turning that out on election day
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