Quinnipiac last polls for OH, VA, and FL tomorrow morning (7 AM)

[Badger]

Something to note here. Per CNN's exit poll, 10% of voters decided presidential candidate to vote for in the last week of the election, including 3% over the weekend and 4% on Election Day itself.

Standard caveat regarding MOE, and there appears (maybe) to be a smaller undecided vote (i.e. a more stratified electorate) than in 08, but lets not discount the real possiblity of undecideds breaking strongly for Romney (or against Obama) over the weekend being enough to push Mitt over the top.

Mind you, that's what Romney absolutely needs at this point to win; even a mere "respectable, but not heavy" majority of undecideds going for Romney this week might flip CO and FL, but ultimately still means four more years.

[Badger]

Something to note here. Per CNN's exit poll, 10% of voters decided presidential candidate to vote for in the last week of the election, including 3% over the weekend and 4% on Election Day itself.

Standard caveat regarding MOE, and there appears (maybe) to be a smaller undecided vote (i.e. a more stratified electorate) than in 08, but lets not discount the real possiblity of undecideds breaking strongly for Romney (or against Obama) over the weekend being enough to push Mitt over the top.

Mind you, that's what Romney absolutely needs at this point to win; even a mere "respectable, but not heavy" majority of undecideds going for Romney this week might flip CO and FL, but ultimately still means four more years.

Undecideds don't necessarily break against the incumbent.  They went 57-41 for Bush in 2004 IIRC.

Absolutely correct. I almost included the explicit caveat that I'm not buying into the meme of some posters that "undecideds always break heavily against the incumbent, and will do so this year". Rather, I'm just saying in this political and economic environment that's still a realistic possiblity for Romney (and now even a necessity for him as well).

[Badger]

There is no real reason for undecideds to go towards Romney. I think a lot could depend on if more Romney leaning undecideds show up than Obama leaning undecideds. Now there is a possibility of that occurring.

Turnout will be crucial, of course, but I'm not sure that's the end of it. Don't you think late undecideds could heavily shift given the painfully lingering economic problems and general perception that Obama was a disappointment in delivering the sweeping changes he promised (even embodied)? I understand there are contrary Democratic arguments to be made (e.g. economy finally now showing tangible signs of growth, obstructionist GOP fillabustering, Romney would be worse, etc), but considering the typical late undecided at this point was likely an 08 Obama voter who remains soured out of disappointment with the economy and percieved lack of sweeping change, couldn't they realistically largely abandon Obama?