Middlesbrough by-election, UK parliament

[YL]

Caused by the death of Sir Stuart Bell, Labour MP for Middlesbrough since 1983, earlier in October.

Middlesbrough is a large industrial town at the southern end of North East England, on the Yorkshire bank of the River Tees.  It's one of those places that developed from virtually nothing in the 19th century, in this case because of the iron and steel industry.  It briefly had a Football League team glorifying in the name Middlesbrough Ironopolis; of course it still has another one, which is probably what it's best known for.  These days it's one of the most economically depressed parts of the UK.  Most of the town is in this constituency, though part is in the cumbersomely named Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland.

Middlesbrough has an elected mayor, Ray Mallon, an Independent who was a not entirely uncontroversial policeman (nicknamed "Robocop") before his first election.  Shortly after Stuart Bell died Mallon announced that he might stand if the other candidates selected don't meet with his approval.  This didn't go down very well with Tom Blenkinsop, Labour MP for Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland.

There's some speculation about whether Mallon is a threat to Labour here.  He is clearly quite popular, getting just over half the votes in the last mayoral election, but I don't know whether that would carry across to a parliamentary by-election.  And I doubt he really intends to stand; I read his statement as more trying to influence the Labour selection.

This blog seems to have a lot of posts on the by-election.  From there, the Lib Dem candidate is one George Selmer, and there's also some detail on people trying to get the Labour nomination.

 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Mallon didn't run against Bell (they hated each other) then I wouldn't have thought he'd run in the by-election (although stranger things have happened). He's basically Independent Labour anyway.

[doktorb]

Constituency Map


And just for the intellectual chin stroking/hell of it

Proposed expansion of the constituency

[Leftbehind]

New boundaries resemble an elephant.

[doktorb]

New boundaries resemble an elephant.

Some resemble a rabbit

[minionofmidas]

New boundaries resemble an elephant.

They're leaving the split of Middlesbrough alone and adding all of Thornaby, which makes sense within the limits of the review's controlling legislation, but yeah, I see the elephant.

[YL]

Labour shortlist (LabourList)

Mahroof Hussain is councillor for Boston Castle ward in Rotherham and stood in Sheffield Hallam in 2005, so I've seen him joust with Nick Clegg at hustings.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to the interwebs, Andy McDonald is a good friend of Robocop.

[Andrea]

Docherty is apparently the Progress backed candidate favoured by David Miliband.

I looked back at 2010 leadership results by CLPs. Middlesbrough had one of the lowest turnouts (37.something %). It's also one of the biggest shares for Diane Abbott (not that it says much considering she polled 14%)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

McDonald has won the selection and by a huge margin.

[Andrea]

McDonald has won the selection and by a huge margin.

McDonald 118 votes, Docherty 64, France 8, Ali 3, Malcolm 0
Hussain withdrew to concentrate on Rotherham selection.

[doktorb]

https://twitter.com/politic_animal/status/266473917701562368

Writ moved today for 29 November

[YL]

BBC gives 8 candidates:

Richard Elvin (UKIP)
Peter Foreman (BNP)
Mark Heslehurst (Ind)
Ben Houchen (Con)
Imdad Hussain (Peace Party)
John Malcolm (TUSC)
Andy McDonald (Lab)
George Selmer (Lib Dem)

(A strangely worded article: why do Con, Lab, TUSC and UKIP get the first paragraph, with the others relegated to "Also contesting..."?)

Hussain is a Bradford councillor (Heaton ward) who was suspended from and then left Labour.
Heslehurst is explicitly "Independent Labour" according to his website (warning: he starts talking to you).

[doktorb]

Middlesbrough results from 1987 to present, with the usual caveats about boundaries and notional results

[doktorb]

I've tried to put together all of the candidates for Middlesbrough ("https://twitter.com/doktorb/middlesbrough-by-election/members)

Any help on finding new/additional names gratefully received!

@GeorgeSelmer
@globalrichard
@Andy4Boro
@boro_libdems
@NDurhamLabour
@UKIPNorthEast
@BenHouchen
@heslehurst

[Andrea]

I predict a dreadful turnout here. Will it be worse than Manchester Central?

[You kip if you want to...]

I predict a dreadful turnout here. Will it be worse than Manchester Central?

No.

[YL]

I predict a dreadful turnout here. Will it be worse than Manchester Central?

No.

I agree.  I think city centre seats can have a lot of low turnout demographics, and I don't think it's any coincidence that the record Manchester Central beat was held by Leeds Central.

[Andrea]

I was thinking about a very low turnout because I thought it was going to rain and rain and rain also on polling day. However, apparently, it shouldn't rain tomorrow.
They aren't flooded, just some transport routes closed (Sadiq Khan was supposed to join the campaign trail yesterday but he didn't manage to reach Middlesbrough).

[Leftbehind]

I know nowt's happened yet, but I love the amount of effort the Beeb have gone to, to cover the by-elections: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20531130

[doktorb]

I know nowt's happened yet, but I love the amount of effort the Beeb have gone to, to cover the by-elections: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20531130

The age of the BBC giving coverage to by-elections is long dead.

Remember that in my life-time they used to have dedicated programmes, with analysis, for just single elections. There's no call or will for that anymore.

[YL]

A local BBC reporter says on Twitter that Labour are "confident of a commanding victory", and that UKIP and the Lib Dems are fighting for second.

[YL]

Turnout apparently around 25%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour hold

[YL]

Andy McDonald (Lab) 10201 (60.5%)
Richard Elvin (UKIP) 1990 (11.8%)
George Selmer (Lib Dem) 1672 (9.9%)
Ben Houchen (Con) 1063 (6.3%)
Imdad Hussain (Peace Party) 1060 (6.3%)
Peter Foreman (BNP) 328 (1.9%)
John Malcolm (TUSC) 277 (1.6%)
Mark Heslehurst (Ind) 275 (1.6%)

If only the Peace Party had got four more votes..