OH: SUSA: Obama 48 Romney 45

[Cliffy]

D+6

Romney is up 11 with independents, looks safe for Romney still.

[Likely Voter]

D+6

Romney is up 11 with independents

Ah, you are close to enlightenment. And the obvious inference from that is...

looks safe for Romney still.

...alas you missed it.  

But you were close. Maybe next time you will figure it out.

[Niemeyerite]

Undecideds vote more republican than republicans.

Undecideds are for republicans what blacks are for democrats.

Undecideds don't know if they'll vote for Romney or against Obama. That's why they call themselves undecided voters.

Obama's up 47-41 in Oregon. Not even close. He won the state by 14 last time around and he'll lose by 6 this time. 20-point swing. That must be a Guinness World Record, at least.

D+6

Romney is up 11 with independents, looks safe for Romney still.

Now, call your mother and tell her that. Because WE DON'T CARE.

[Eraserhead]

D+6

Romney is up 11 with independents, looks safe for Romney still.

Will you retreat to whatever cave you came out of if Romney loses?

[Seriously?]

D+6

Romney is up 11 with independents, looks safe for Romney still.

We all know: 1) voters self identify and 2) voters self identify more with democrats in Ohio than they do nationally (even though Ohio is a R+1 Cook PVI state) because 3) Gallup doesn't know what they are talking about... Or Rasmussen... Or the Battleground folks. Why? Because Axelrod is right and the white vote will be <74%.

Yep.

[Cliffy]

You might want to pay attention to the margins this has O winning Cleveland and Toledo, not enough to get it done for him

[Seriously?]

You might want to pay attention to the margins this has O winning Cleveland and Toledo, not enough to get it done for him

They added D voters onto the rolls in Cleveland, right?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Rasmussen is the only pollster to put Mitt ahead there. Things look pretty clear.

[Badger]

Some interesting crosstab data

DATE: Have voted Obama/Romney vs Plan to vote (%) Obama/Romney:
10/9:   Have voted (11%) 59/39- Plan to vote(89%) 44/45
10/16: Have voted (18%) 57/38 - Plan to vote(82%) 43/43
10/23: Have voted (26%) 59/39 - Plan to vote(74%) 44/46
10/30: Have voted (25%) 56/40 - Plan to vote before election day(14%) 58/35 - Plan to vote on election day(60%) 41/50

The 'have voted' number dropped 1% probably because they changed to allow 3 options to answer
 

Do cell phones matter?
Cellphone: 52 Obama/36 Romney (Obama +16)
Landline: 46 Obama/48 Romney (Romney +2)

Coincidence that the only OH poll to show Romney +2 (Rasmussen) only calls landlines?

It obviously does matter, I don't think anyone besides the most strident GOP hacks try to argue it doesn't.  

While I see the concerns over calling only landlines, as long as landline only polls adjust their aggragate sample to reflect the anticipated turnout share of young voters, why would that effect the poll's accuracy?

In other words, if a pollster accurately estimates (e.g.) 15% of voters will be 18-29, and in a landline only poll ensures that 15% of respondents are in that age bracket, why would the poll be inaccurate, unless one postulates there's a material difference in political leanings between 18-29 year olds with land lines vs. those with cells only (which I don't see). The same question applies for other demographic subgroups (Af. American & Hispanic voters perhaps?) than youngs which may also be more landline-free.

Of course, this all assumes the pollster (Rassy in this case) gets the estimated turnout of youngs correct in advance, or even attempts to account for the demographic slant of a landline only poll.

[Torie]

You think land line only kids vote the same as the group as a whole Badger?  That is one issue pollsters must grapple with (do folks that answer the phone vote the same way as others in their cohort who do not?). The other of course is turnout models.

[Badger]

You think land line only kids vote the same as the group as a whole Badger?  That is one issue pollsters must grapple with (do folks that answer the phone vote the same way as others in their cohort who do not?). The other of course is turnout models.

Basically, yes. As usual, you made my point much more succinctly than I.