Can anybody explain why they think that Obama might win?

[GMantis]

Apart from historical stats, like right/wrong track, 7.9 unemployment, 2 % GDP, $16 trillion, no tangible second term agenda - not a regurgitated first term agenda blue print, plus 46% approval rating vs. 49% approval and trailing a challenger who was given up for dead prior to the Denver debate, who is trailing among Independents, who is virtually tied among women and there are many of you out there believe that either the polls are wrong and not to believe your senses about what happened in Denver, not to mention the unanswered questions about Benghazi and that Obama is going to defy the logic of what these facts and stats tells everybody and not just win re-election, but quite handsomely; explain your reasons to why I and the general consensus is wrong and spare is the Obama re-election campaign's talking points and spin; convince me and everybody else who might read this, why you think Obama will win, this should be interesting.

How exactly did you arrive at this general consensus?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's very simple, hm.  Simple enough that you'd think Republican hacks could understand it, but apparently not.  Obama has not been a great president, but neither has he been a disaster.  Hence, while I think you can easily find a majority of voters agreeing that there has to be somebody better than Obama, you don't find a majority saying anybody would be better.  That's generally why the GOP hacks can't believe that Obama can win.  They are part of the minority that thinks anybody would be better. (Or at least any Republican would be better.)

If Obama wins, it won't be because he's loved, but because the voters decide that Romney appears to be worse than Obama.  For me personally, it's because Romney is a salesman who is far too willing to say whatever he thinks the voters want to hear.  His rudderless ambition makes Romney unfit to captain the ship of state.

Are you voting for Obama?

If I lived in a swing state, I probably would, but since I live in South Carolina, my presidential vote is going to be wasted anyway so I have no need to vote for the lesser of two weevils.  I'll be voting for Johnson as he's the best of the five on the ballot here, but that's not saying much this year.

[CountryRoads]

Cuz Romeney teh flopflip, and teh ebul millionaire who ates poors for brekfeast.

[Yank2133]

Cuz Romeney teh flopflip, and teh ebul millionaire who ates poors for brekfeast.

No, Romney is just down in the key swing states.

Nice try though.

[The Mikado]

I'm not rendering any more opinions or dissertations on why the following election outcome will occur, I believe Romney will emerge as the winner when the dust finally settles.

Again, Obama is up in Ohio, the candidate that wins Ohio will win the election.  Romney winning is a possibility, but only if he wins Ohio, and Obama's doing better there than he is nationwide.

[ProudModerate2]

heatmaster,
You have flooded your topic with a vast array of strange reasons why Obama should not be President. The strangest one is :

As Hurricane Sandy just demonstrated, the national electric grid is hopelessly outdated: Obama would have better served if he had used that stimulus money, to modernize and update the electric grid ...

Are you serious ? The electrical grid ?? Really .... come on !
I'm surprised you actually have not yet posted that it was the Democrats who created and directed Hurricane Sandy to hit the USA.

Who is providing you with all these strange political "talking points" ? Are they from Karl Rove ? Actually, they are stranger than Rove ... maybe from Michele Bachmann.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Healthcare

An excellent reason for his defeat -- it's one of his few still reversible mistakes. It's also one of the GOP's greatest assets, considering a majority (or at least a plurality) of the population has supported repeal ever since the law was passed. Never has a poll been released showing more people against repeal than for it.

I support giving healthcare to all people.

This is easily Obama's biggest domestic accomplishment.

If he is re-elected, the law will be fully implemented, and millions more (though not all) will recieve healthcare.

I think once it's implemented, people might quite like the idea of being able to see doctors.

Yes, people will like that idea. Too bad the law isn't doing anything to solve the doctor shortage.

[old timey villain]

Troll thread

His premise is flawed. It's essentially "Why do you think Obama will win- even though I'm giving you all of these negative opinions of Obama which I am presenting as facts."

How about, Obama will win because he is leading or tied in nearly every swing state? See, I could have said, "Obama will win because he is beloved across all of this great nation of ours." But then I would be just as bad as Heatmaster.

I think he's been hitting the Guinness and Jameson a little too hard.

[gotapresent]

Obama will win this election because he will get over 270 electoral votes.

[rockhound]

It's very simple, hm.  Simple enough that you'd think Republican hacks could understand it, but apparently not.  Obama has not been a great president, but neither has he been a disaster.  Hence, while I think you can easily find a majority of voters agreeing that there has to be somebody better than Obama, you don't find a majority saying anybody would be better.  That's generally why the GOP hacks can't believe that Obama can win.  They are part of the minority that thinks anybody would be better. (Or at least any Republican would be better.)

If Obama wins, it won't be because he's loved, but because the voters decide that Romney appears to be worse than Obama.  For me personally, it's because Romney is a salesman who is far too willing to say whatever he thinks the voters want to hear.  His rudderless ambition makes Romney unfit to captain the ship of state.

Saying Obama's presidency has not been a disaster has marked you as one of the dumbest posters on her.

OBama leads only because he, (with the supprt of the MSM) has convinced the sheep of the country that rich and successful is a bad thing.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Ernest got it right. Obama is not the best possible option for President-but out of the two candidates who have the slightest chance of winning, he is the best available option.

Obama>Romney>The other GOP candidates

[gsmiro]

Ernest got it right. Obama is not the best possible option for President-but out of the two candidates who have the slightest chance of winning, he is the best available option.

Obama>Romney>The other GOP candidates

I would definitely disagree with you in your statement.  Ron Paul by far was the best candidate that understood the current economical situation and proposed a sane foreign policy and domestic policy, live and let live, return rights to the States, so people of each State can decide what they want to do with their lives.  Ron Paul understood what caused the housing bubble and our fiscal crisis and he has the actual plans to deal with it, that is to cut federal budget, rein in federal reserve, stop borrowing money and return to a sound monetary system.  Obama and Romney means just the same.  And I think we all know it, that's why Romney is not really winning, because we know he's just more or less the same with Obama, so why bother changing the president?

[k-onmmunist]

Cuz Romeney teh flopflip, and teh ebul millionaire who ates poors for brekfeast.

thank you for your rational and well constructed argument. i now completely see why the belief of many people that romney is inconsistent and switches positions is incorrect, and why he is in fact a true humanitarian and lover of the working classes.

[heatmaster]

Many who are contributing are overlooking several factors in the 2012 election; will enumerate them.
1. Presumption the 2012 election composition will mirror that of 2008; the core Obama support groups, will turn out in the same size and force as in 2008.
 (a). Democratic enthusiasm lags behind Republican by a 10% margin.
 (b). Most poll samplings are suspect, as they are based on the 2008 electorate model and overestimate Obama's support, while underestimating Romney's; instead of basing a projected outcome on the 2008 election; you should use 2010, 2008, 2006 and 2004 polling results and here you receive a more accurate sampling.
 (c). Obama is burdened by the cloak of incumbency, and many in his support group, assume that a bad record (economic one that is, remember the old Clinton refrain of 1992?, IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID); so a bad economic record is a sword, that cut's both ways; Obama used Bush's economic stewardship to great affect after the economic collapse in 2008, he was the challenger - now he is the incumbent and he has ownership of the economy, you may not like that fact; so Romney has a perfect right to hammer Obama, and given the tick up of 7.9% in the Unemployment rate and with a 2% economic growth rate (1.3% when you factor out government spending).
 (d). You see a close election, 47.4% for Obama, to 47.3% Romney in the national polling, a statistical tie; with 5.4% with undecideds/unsure - if history is any guide, they for the most part break for the challenger.
 (e). Look at Ohio, Democratic absentee ballot applications are down by over 181,000 - that number is subject to change: Republican absentee ballot applications are up by approximately by 75,000 - a number subject to change; roughly a change over from 2008, by over 250,000; Romney is also leading in early voting in Ohio.
 (f). The national early vote, shows Romney by 7%.
So if Obama is expecting Ohio to support him on November 6, he will be sorely disappointed: but look at the stats, if you don't buy what I have just written. Just the fact's ma'am.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saying Obama's presidency has not been a disaster has marked you as one of the dumbest posters on her.

kinky

[bedstuy]

Many who are contributing are overlooking several factors in the 2012 election; will enumerate them.
1. Presumption the 2012 election composition will mirror that of 2008; the core Obama support groups, will turn out in the same size and force as in 2008.
 (a). Democratic enthusiasm lags behind Republican by a 10% margin.
 (b). Most poll samplings are suspect, as they are based on the 2008 electorate model and overestimate Obama's support, while underestimating Romney's; instead of basing a projected outcome on the 2008 election; you should use 2010, 2008, 2006 and 2004 polling results and here you receive a more accurate sampling.
 (c). Obama is burdened by the cloak of incumbency, and many in his support group, assume that a bad record (economic one that is, remember the old Clinton refrain of 1992?, IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID); so a bad economic record is a sword, that cut's both ways; Obama used Bush's economic stewardship to great affect after the economic collapse in 2008, he was the challenger - now he is the incumbent and he has ownership of the economy, you may not like that fact; so Romney has a perfect right to hammer Obama, and given the tick up of 7.9% in the Unemployment rate and with a 2% economic growth rate (1.3% when you factor out government spending).
 (d). You see a close election, 47.4% for Obama, to 47.3% Romney in the national polling, a statistical tie; with 5.4% with undecideds/unsure - if history is any guide, they for the most part break for the challenger.
 (e). Look at Ohio, Democratic absentee ballot applications are down by over 181,000 - that number is subject to change: Republican absentee ballot applications are up by approximately by 75,000 - a number subject to change; roughly a change over from 2008, by over 250,000; Romney is also leading in early voting in Ohio.
 (f). The national early vote, shows Romney by 7%.
So if Obama is expecting Ohio to support him on November 6, he will be sorely disappointed: but look at the stats, if you don't buy what I have just written. Just the fact's ma'am.

  Come on, that's silly.  You're making some biased assumptions yourself. 

1.  If Obama polls worse than 2008 he will lose.  FALSE.  Obama can lose 9 million votes relative to the Republicans and still win the popular vote.  I don't think anyone thinks Obama will match his 2008 margin.  But, Romney doesn't just have to do better than McCain; he has to do a lot better.

2.  Pollsters attempt to find X% of each party. FALSE.  Polls take a random sample, not a sample that assumes specific turnout.  A poll that tried to have X percentage of democrats/republicans/seniors/whites/et al would be completely bogus but nobody polls like that.  The reason that a poll is accurate is not choosing how many of each group to poll.  The reason a poll is accurate is that they poll enough people to create an accurate sample +/- the margin of error.

3.  Undecided voters always go to the challenger.  There is no evidence of that.

4.  We know the partisan early voting data from Ohio.  Not really.  Ohio doesn't provide data on how many of each party has returned ballots. 

5.  Better early voting numbers for Republicans will translate to signficantly better results.  Not necessarily. Republicans might just be finally catching up on early voting but each vote is still worth 1.  Republicans might just be shifting votes from election day to early voting.  If every Republican in NC last time around had voted early, McCain would have crushed Obama in early voting but still lost the state.

[stry_cat]

Romney can't even win his home state, he's like the Al Gore of the Republicans.

Also the thing that defines the Obama Presidency, Obamacare, is an idea stolen from Romney.  Romney can't campaign against his own idea and expect anyone to believe him. 

Finally at least here in Virginia, even in the rural areas, there are more Obama signs.  Areas that should be solid R just aren't.

The only case for Romney, is that in a lot of these "toss up" states, Obama is polling below 50%. 

[Mechaman]

Man you guys are so delusional you know.  It never ceases to amaze me how much this forum echoes the media's revisionist lies about Obama's invincibility and how he will win a large mandate election and cure cancer!  I mean really, this guy is such a huge epic failure and it's so obvious man!  Here are some really good reasons why Obama has no chance, yeah no chance in Hell of winning this election dudes!:

1. He doesn't like what the traditional folks think so he won't win!  It's quite obvious that Obama has taken an overly aggressive stance against the god fearing values of this country with his blatant attempt to paint the Republican Party as a bunch of racist liars while he goes on and on about how awesome gay people are!  Especially that one guy from The Wire!  America doesn't care about the President's Martini Drinking cosmopolitan values and it's incredibly gay that he would come out so vehemently advocating the campaign policy of Sex In the City in this election when millions can't even afford bread on the table due to our horrific economy!  Which brings me to point number 2:
2. PEOPLE.  CAN'T.  PUT.  BREAD.  ON.  THE.  TABLE.  It is as simple as that!  The employment rate is simply atrocious and hasn't change that much at all over the past four years.  In fact it is even worse than it was in early 2009 at the beginning of the so-called "Great Recession"!  Obviously, the President didn't do enough to repair the economy and the fact that he, who definitely has the power to magically cure the employment rate if he just follows the right policies according to Grover Norquist, hasn't gotten it down to 2.4% unemployment three years after a horrible economic meltdown is testament to the fact that Barrack Obama IS THE WORST PRESIDENT IN HISTORY.  While the President and his wife are eating and drinking Chiantis with their metrosexual friends in Brooklyn millions of humble working Americans are still unemployed!  HOW DARE HE!
3.  SAY IT WITH ME ONCE!  SAY IT WITH ME TWICE!  SAY IT WITH ME A MILLION AND MORE TIMES AND THE WORD YOU WILL HAVE SAID A MILLION AND THREE TIMES IS YES!  Oh wait, I meant Benghazi!  Benghazi!  Benghazi!  Benghazi!  Benghazi!  It's not "Amore", it's Benghazi!  Not your usual piece of good Presidential pasta, this event will forever doom Obama majorly!  The fact that Fox News will not shut up about it is damning evidence that Obama's days are our Marxist Leninist Elected Monarch are about to come to a screeching crash!  CIA agents, murdered!  Ambassadors, murdered!  The Administration?  Cocksuredly incompetent the lot of them!
4.  Benghazi!  Benghazi!
5. Hurricane Sandy, what a total disaster!  It is a total failure of the Administration and a vast testament to this nation's failing infrastructure and electric grid that such a horrible storm could just destroy and ravish the Northeast!  I mean, I didn't even know that the Northeast could have hurricanes!  This is just absolutely devastating there is so much destruction this is obviously the same as Hurricane Katrina and will wreck and destroy the Obama presidency because people are so outraged that he took a very long time to respond to the crisis.  Aloof much?
6.  Benghazi!  Benghazi!  Benghazi!
7.  The evil liberal media lies and distorts the numbers because they are so in love with the Obama machine and can't bear the thought of him being crushed decisively come November 6th!  Mark my words socialists, your days of destroying this country with your bitter lies and racemongering will soon come to an end!  Now you will have to deal with the fact, despite what your many many attempts at creating a fairytale ending with Obama as your Lord and Savior, that President Romney will actually get things done.  I mean what has Obama done besides advocating national socialist hellcare and calling everyone he disagrees with "racists"?  If it quacks like a lame duck, it is a lame duck.
8.  The debt is TOTALLY OUT OF CONTROL!  It is gone quite bonkers and is increasing quite exponentially!  With a Republican in the office we could've ended this long trail of debt and come up with trillions of dollars in surplus!  A Republican would've never spent more money than he had and instituted the kind of debtmongering policies of this debtloving President and his cronies!  Sixteen trillion dollars!  $16 TRILLIONS!  And no outrage!  What is this world coming to when the strongest nation in the world is being sold to China hand over fist in debt thanks to the unAmerican monetary policy of this anti-Capitalist extremist President?!

It is quite obvious with all of these facts that Obama is dead.  He is so dead that Jason Voorhees would've made a better Democratic candidate than him.  Obama is so dead that he will take with him the failed legacy of the Democratic Party with him to the grave due to his utter incompetence.  Barrack Obama is the worst President in history.  No President in the history of this great nation has never had the problems of unemployment and strife between regions as this President.  I predict that if America re-elects Obama, this nation will rip itself asunder, a truly unprecedented event.

These are the reasons why Barrack Obama has no chance in hell of winning and why all of you Dem hacks are such idiot partisans who don't know basic math and reading comprehension skills!

[ProudModerate2]

5. Hurricane Sandy, what a total disaster!  It is a total failure of the Administration and a vast testament to this nation's failing infrastructure and electric grid ....

LOL.
Once again someone brings up the "electrical grid.". This is not a coincidence and I'm sure this is a "talking point" handed-out somewhere by some crazy Republican. Ohh and by the way ..... your mad-screaming of " Benghazi!  Benghazi!  Benghazi! " statement also gave-it-away.

With a Republican in the office we could've ended this long trail of debt and come up with trillions of dollars in surplus!

How old are you ? Maybe you haven't been around as long as some of us. Are you not aware that it was President Clinton's tax policy that brought four years of surpluses. Then, President Bush (a Republican by the way) decided to give everyone (especially the upper class) a massive tax break. He did this because his people "projected" that there would be massive surpluses for 10 years looking out. So Bush was the one who began the new round of yearly deficits. So his massive tax overhaul, was not only unpaid-for then, but is still an unpaid-for tax policy that exists today, and that is still contributing partly to today's massive deficits.

These are the reasons why Barrack Obama has no chance in hell of winning and why all of you Dem hacks are such idiot partisans who don't know basic math and reading comprehension skills!

Wow.
Large Ham : Go back and read your entire post once again. I have only quoted one item here, but it is littered with maddening and very abusive words and descriptions (I almost want to use the word "evil").
This does not make you, or your cause, look better but instead much worse.
"Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate; hate leads to suffering. I sense much fear in you."

[Middle-aged Europe]

5. Hurricane Sandy, what a total disaster!  It is a total failure of the Administration and a vast testament to this nation's failing infrastructure and electric grid that such a horrible storm could just destroy and ravish the Northeast!  I mean, I didn't even know that the Northeast could have hurricanes!  This is just absolutely devastating there is so much destruction this is obviously the same as Hurricane Katrina and will wreck and destroy the Obama presidency because people are so outraged that he took a very long time to respond to the crisis.  Aloof much?

Problem is, 80% of Americans disagree with you on this one.

No President in the history of this great nation has never had the problems of unemployment and strife between regions as this President.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_D._Roosevelt

I predict that if America re-elects Obama, this nation will rip itself asunder, a truly unprecedented event.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War

[Silent Hunter]

8.  The debt is TOTALLY OUT OF CONTROL!  It is gone quite bonkers and is increasing quite exponentially!  With a Republican in the office we could've ended this long trail of debt and come up with trillions of dollars in surplus!  A Republican would've never spent more money than he had and instituted the kind of debtmongering policies of this debtloving President and his cronies!  Sixteen trillion dollars!  $16 TRILLIONS!  And no outrage!  What is this world coming to when the strongest nation in the world is being sold to China hand over fist in debt thanks to the unAmerican monetary policy of this anti-Capitalist extremist President?!

Three words: George Walker Bush.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

lol you guys taking mech seriously. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Mech you're brilliant. ^^
The fact that so many posters can't detect obvious sarcasm and humour scares me though.

[politicus]

Mech you're brilliant. ^^
The fact that so many posters can't detect obvious sarcasm and humour scares me though.

A newbie like ProudModerate2 may be excused because Mech does put up a class act, but the other two ought to know better.