PA: Franklin & Marshall: Obama +4

[Fargobison]

Obama 48
Romney 44

New Franklin & Marshall poll shows Romney closes gap on Obama in Pennsylvania - Newsl

[Speed of Sound]

Firstly: School pride, woohoo!

Secondly: Wow, those are very interesting numbers. They don't show Obama slipping since August, but Romney's made up a ton of ground. 49 or 50 would make me feel better. Luckily Obama seems to have a lot of money to spend and Ohio is heading totally in the right direction. If they haven't yet, they better be sure PA's old famous ground game is lined up and ready to go.

[Lief 🗽]

The same thing happened in 2008. A couple of polls came out near the end showing the margin in Pennsylvania suddenly shrinking to mid single digits, people began to panic, think McCain had real momentum in the state, and then Obama won by 10% on election day anyway. It's the same song and dance every year.

[Eraserhead]

PA may end up being as close as OH, especially with the hurricane having a much bigger impact there.

Of course, I'm going to be very skeptical of any polling from PA from here on out.

[tokar]

PA may end up being as close as OH, especially with the hurricane having a much bigger impact there.

Of course, I'm going to be very skeptical of any polling from PA from here on out.

Dont count on it (referring to there being major effects in PA from Hurricane Sandy). My parents and brother are in SE PA. Sure, they got hit, but the area will definitely recover by Tuesday as I can tell from talking to them (my parents are without power, but surviving...hah). Keep in mind there is no early voting there.

Now, your comment about polling is true, though. You have the largest area of the state (SE PA) lacking power in many places, so it might be a bit difficult to find people to poll. So I, too, would be a bit skeptical of polling out of PA in the next few days.

[King]

I don't think these polls are wrong.  I think the state of Pennsylvania has decided to collectively troll Republicans every 4 years.

[Seriously?]

I don't think these polls are wrong.  I think the state of Pennsylvania has decided to collectively troll Republicans every 4 years.

If it weren't for Hurricane Sandy, there probably would have been that outlier NJ tease, too.

[Seriously?]

Firstly: School pride, woohoo!

Secondly: Wow, those are very interesting numbers. They don't show Obama slipping since August, but Romney's made up a ton of ground. 49 or 50 would make me feel better. Luckily Obama seems to have a lot of money to spend and Ohio is heading totally in the right direction. If they haven't yet, they better be sure PA's old famous ground game is lined up and ready to go.

You've got 49 among likely voters. The correct toplines should be:

Obama 49
Romney 45
Undecided 4

F&M released the registered numbers first in the release followed by the likely voters.

[Speed of Sound]

Firstly: School pride, woohoo!

Secondly: Wow, those are very interesting numbers. They don't show Obama slipping since August, but Romney's made up a ton of ground. 49 or 50 would make me feel better. Luckily Obama seems to have a lot of money to spend and Ohio is heading totally in the right direction. If they haven't yet, they better be sure PA's old famous ground game is lined up and ready to go.

You've got 49 among likely voters. The correct toplines should be:

Obama 49
Romney 45
Undecided 4

F&M released the registered numbers first in the release followed by the likely voters.

Thank you for pointing that out!

That must be the world's only LV screen to help Obama...?

[Seriously?]

Firstly: School pride, woohoo!

Secondly: Wow, those are very interesting numbers. They don't show Obama slipping since August, but Romney's made up a ton of ground. 49 or 50 would make me feel better. Luckily Obama seems to have a lot of money to spend and Ohio is heading totally in the right direction. If they haven't yet, they better be sure PA's old famous ground game is lined up and ready to go.

You've got 49 among likely voters. The correct toplines should be:

Obama 49
Romney 45
Undecided 4

F&M released the registered numbers first in the release followed by the likely voters.

Thank you for pointing that out!

That must be the world's only LV screen to help Obama...?

That's why I am shaking my head at this uni poll.
1) PA loves to tease Republicans.
2) Romney should have gained a few points when they shifted to likely vs. registered.

Despite the quirkiness, the end result is in the same 3-6 range of the other recent polls in PA.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

F&M is a great pollster for the state, so eek. Our GOTV should run up the margin a little bit, but this gives me a good reason to volunteer one last time this weekend.

[Holmes]

The machine has to work extra hard here after the hurricane.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The machine has to work extra hard here after the hurricane.

You're saying that like we lost thousands of people and Philadelphia is unrecognizable ashes. It was a very bad storm here and not much more.

[J. J.]

The same thing happened in 2008. A couple of polls came out near the end showing the margin in Pennsylvania suddenly shrinking to mid single digits, people began to panic, think McCain had real momentum in the state, and then Obama won by 10% on election day anyway. It's the same song and dance every year.

Last time F & M was showing it close to the final.  This has closed, much more than I thought.  

Obama's GOTV in 2012, is not the GOTV of 2008.  No registration drive.  So far, little efforts in the base area.  

I still call the state for Obama.  

[Holmes]

The machine has to work extra hard here after the hurricane.

You're saying that like we lost thousands of people and Philadelphia is unrecognizable ashes. It was a very bad storm here and not much more.

I did? My comment applies to NY and NJ as well, with places still flooded and with transit probably still down on election day.

[You kip if you want to...]

The same thing happened in 2008. A couple of polls came out near the end showing the margin in Pennsylvania suddenly shrinking to mid single digits, people began to panic, think McCain had real momentum in the state, and then Obama won by 10% on election day anyway. It's the same song and dance every year.

Even in 2010, the senate race was a lot closer than anyone expected.

[DemPGH]

The 44-45 is a bigger problem for R than the 48-49 is for O. What does concern me just a bit, though, is that something has motivated the Casey people to get up off their dead rear ends and get to work. The "Tea Party Tom" ads are back in full swing as is a positive Casey ad that ties him to coal. The right has really been working the coal angle here, and the rednecks have these big black and red bumper stickers that say, "Stop the war on coal - FIRE Obama." Additionally, I have received no calls from the Casey people, and I even got a few from the Sestak people back in 2010. (Hopefully, Sestak will throw in to possibly challenge Corbett).

This may all be much ado about nothing - we're in the final week and there is money left to be spent, so they will spend it. I just would hate like hell to see two PA Senators as Tea Party right wingers and a complete moron in the Governor's mansion. Doesn't bode well for them in the long term, but in the short term that wouldn't be cool.

[J. J.]

Weather may play a factor.  Another Nor'easter may be on the way. 

[Keystone Phil]

Weather may play a factor.  Another Nor'easter may be on the way. 

Cecily just said it won't be anything and specifically said Election Day would be clear. Where the hell are you getting the idea of a Nor'easter?

[J. J.]

Weather may play a factor.  Another Nor'easter may be on the way. 

Cecily just said it won't be anything and specifically said Election Day would be clear. Where the hell are you getting the idea of a Nor'easter?

They were reporting the possibility of one earlier.  That's why I reported "may."  Weather was showing some rain for that day on WeatherUnderground. 

[J. J.]

Sorry, it was Accuweather.