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Author Topic: Bayh vs. Generic R  (Read 4202 times)
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jfern
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« on: February 04, 2005, 03:01:45 am »

How would Bayh do against a generic or specific Republican?



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nick
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2005, 10:46:57 am »

I agree with that map for the most part.  He may lose New Hampshire and Florida, but other than that I agree.
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Special K
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2005, 10:57:41 am »

I like Bayh a lot.  I lean Republican most of the time, but I would vote for Bayh easily.
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Rob
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2005, 07:27:06 pm »

My map:


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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2005, 08:22:15 pm »



Bayh 339
Generic Pub 170
Not Sure 29

MO, WV, and VA are "not sures" because I'm not sure how Bayh would play in those states.
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DanielX
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« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2005, 08:32:55 am »



Bayh 339
Generic Pub 170
Not Sure 29

MO, WV, and VA are "not sures" because I'm not sure how Bayh would play in those states.

Alcon, i have serious doubts about South Dakota....

my map: Very close. Unless Bayh gets a running mate who is either Hispanic or can appeal to them, he probably won't do that well in the Southwest or Florida. I also doubt that he'll get Missouri, and I think West Virginia and Virginia won't be easy. However, if Bayh is as strong in the Midwest as many people think he is, he still has a good shot - Ohio is almost as tasty as Florida.
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2005, 12:43:48 pm »

Here's my idea:



Here's the confidence map:

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Alcon
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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2005, 05:52:09 pm »



Bayh 339
Generic Pub 170
Not Sure 29

MO, WV, and VA are "not sures" because I'm not sure how Bayh would play in those states.

Alcon, i have serious doubts about South Dakota....

my map: Very close. Unless Bayh gets a running mate who is either Hispanic or can appeal to them, he probably won't do that well in the Southwest or Florida. I also doubt that he'll get Missouri, and I think West Virginia and Virginia won't be easy. However, if Bayh is as strong in the Midwest as many people think he is, he still has a good shot - Ohio is almost as tasty as Florida.

Kerry won South Dakota with 58% of the vote. What in the world are you talking about?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2005, 08:25:35 am »

Before discussing Bayh's electoral chances I recommend going and finding out the following:

1. What part of Indiana is he from?
2. What parts of Indiana does he do very well in
3. After you've done that, go look up demographic and electoral info on both.

I have. It's very interesting.
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nick
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2005, 01:46:25 pm »

Before discussing Bayh's electoral chances I recommend going and finding out the following:

1. What part of Indiana is he from?
2. What parts of Indiana does he do very well in
3. After you've done that, go look up demographic and electoral info on both.

I have. It's very interesting.

Does it look good or bad?
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ian
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2005, 03:37:12 pm »

He would do outstandingly, getting a lot of southern votes.
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« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2005, 09:09:31 am »

Before discussing Bayh's electoral chances I recommend going and finding out the following:

1. What part of Indiana is he from?
2. What parts of Indiana does he do very well in
3. After you've done that, go look up demographic and electoral info on both.

I have. It's very interesting.

Does it look good or bad?

Pretty good I'd say on the isue of "electability"

Bayh hails from Shirkieville (Vigo County), which is in the Terre Haute metro area

Voting demographics according to CNN Indiana exit poll:

VOTE BY GENDER TOTAL                  Bayh  Scott 
Male (48%)                                      57% 43%
Female (52%)                                  67% 32%

VOTE BY RACE AND GENDER TOTAL Bayh  Scott 
White Men (45%)                            54% 45%
White Women (44%)                       63% 36%
Non-White Men (4%)                        *      *
Non-White Women (7%)                 94%  6%

VOTE BY RACE TOTAL                      Bayh  Scott 
White (89%)                                    59% 41%
African-American (7%)                     94% 6%

VOTE BY AGE TOTAL                        Bayh  Scott 
18-29 (14%)                                    73% 27%
30-44 (33%)                                    57% 42%
45-59 (30%)                                    62% 35%
60 and Older (23%)                         62% 38%

VOTE BY AGE TOTAL                        Bayh  Scott 
18-64 (88%)                                    62% 37%
65 and Older (12%)                         62% 38%

VOTE BY INCOME TOTAL                  Bayh  Scott 
Under $15,000 (6%)                          *        *
$15-30,000 (13%)                            72% 28%
$30-50,000 (23%)                            60% 38%
$50-75,000 (26%)                            65% 34%
$75-100,000 (15%)                          54% 43%
$100-150,000 (10%)                        58% 42%
$150-200,000 (4%)                           *      *
$200,000 or More (3%)                     *      *

VOTE BY PARTY ID TOTAL                  Bayh  Scott 
Democrat (32%)                                92% 6%
Republican (46%)                              35% 65%
Independent (22%)                          73% 25%

VOTE BY IDEOLOGY TOTAL                Bayh  Scott 
Liberal (14%)                                     87% 10%
Moderate (43%)                                 77% 22%
Conservative (43%)                           37% 63%

VOTE BY RELIGION TOTAL                 Bayh  Scott 
Protestant (69%)                               57% 43%
Catholic (18%)                                   72% 28%
None (7%)                                         70% 24%

ARE YOU MARRIED? TOTAL                Bayh  Scott 
Yes (70%)                                          56% 43%
No (30%)                                           75% 25%

VOTE BY SIZE OF COMMUNITY TOTAL Bayh  Scott 
Big Cities (13%)                                  66% 32%
Smaller Cities (12%)                           65% 35%
Suburbs (48%)                                   59% 40%
Small Towns (3%)                                *      *
Rural (24%)                                        61% 38%
         
VOTE BY SIZE OF COMMUNITY TOTAL Bayh  Scott 
Urban (25%)                                       66% 33%
Suburban (48%)                                 59% 40%
Rural (27%)                                        64% 35%

VOTE BY REGION TOTAL                      Bayh  Scott 
Marion County (13%)                          66% 32%
Southern Indiana (25%)                     63% 34%
Northwestern Indiana (16%)              71% 29%
Northern Indiana (29%)                      56% 44%
East Central Indiana (17%)                58% 42%

Dave
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« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2005, 12:06:29 pm »

I guess none of you watch the news, otherwise you would know that Bayh is starting to side with the Kennedy's and Boxer's of the world.
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2005, 12:46:06 pm »

I guess none of you watch the news, otherwise you would know that Bayh is starting to side with the Kennedy's and Boxer's of the world.

I hardly think Bayh voting 'no' to the confirmation of Rice represents some dramatic abandonment of the political centre or some great lurch to the poltical left. It was an accountability issue and a matter of principle. I refer to Evan Bayh's guest column in Marion-Chronicle Tribune (6th Feb 05):


Evan Bayh guest column: My vote was based on principles, not politics

Senator explains stand against Rice

I read with interest Andrea Neal's column suggesting that my vote against promoting Dr. Condoleezza Rice to secretary of state could not be based on principle, that I had changed my priorities on Iraq, that no serious policy errors have been made for which the decision-makers should be held to account, and that my motives could only be a sign of larger political ambition.

This must be a case of mistaken identity, because her assertions did not accurately reflect my motivation, my reasoning or my position on our mission in Iraq.

I have been unwavering in my support for freedom in Iraq. I was one of the original sponsors of the resolution to remove Saddam Hussein, and I have always voted to give the troops the money and equipment they need.

Because I believe strongly that we must succeed, I am particularly troubled by serious policy errors that have made the situation in Iraq much more difficult and undermined our chances for success. It is not too much to say that our troops and the cause of freedom have been endangered by these mistakes.

From the very beginning, this administration violated a fundamental tenet of war. Instead of planning for the worst and hoping for the best, the administration has all too often planned for the best and reaped the worst.

Ignoring the warnings of people such as Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., we did not go in with the troops or the equipment necessary for the difficult task of nation-building.

We never had a realistic plan for what came after Saddam was deposed. The State Department and others, including Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Indiana, urged the administration to plan for the reconstruction of Iraq, but they were ignored.

Those in charge must be held accountable for those mistakes. Our success in Iraq depends on learning from them and correcting them.

During my recent trip to Iraq, a top U.S. official told me that things would be 100 percent better on the ground if we had not dismissed the Iraqi Army. The lack of stability in the early days after Saddam led to looting and lawlessness that spawned the insurgency we face today.

The leaders and the human rights violators should be prosecuted, but many of the rank-and-file soldiers could have helped us provide stability. Instead of fighting with us, they are now fighting against us.

These problems were further compounded when we disqualified even low-level former Baathists from serving in the Iraqi government. They could've helped us run the nation by keeping the lights on, the water running and the economy functioning. They could've helped us reassure the Sunni community that we wanted to incorporate them in the future of Iraq.

When the stakes are this high and the consequences this profound, accountability is important. Holding people accountable for grave errors may be an odd concept in Washington, D.C., but business as usual isn't good enough anymore. My stand wasn't based on partisanship, but on errors in judgment that I don't believe warranted a promotion.

Finally, Ms. Neal suggested that Dr. Rice is the only person who can effectively serve as secretary of state and, therefore, my opposition to her must be rooted in pure partisanship and ambition.

In fact, there is an obvious alternative for secretary of state. A man who is superbly qualified, a man who is committed to success in Iraq, who foresaw and may have prevented many of the problems we now face. A man I would recommend based not on partisanship or ambition, but on demonstrated judgment.

That man?

Indiana's own Dick Lugar.

I happen to agree with him. Lugar would have made a fine Secretary of State

Dave
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