Mason-Dixon won't poll FL any longer, says Romney has it "already won"
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  Mason-Dixon won't poll FL any longer, says Romney has it "already won"
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Author Topic: Mason-Dixon won't poll FL any longer, says Romney has it "already won"  (Read 1997 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 31, 2012, 01:19:51 AM »

Mason-Dixon will no longer poll Florida; predicts Romney win

Mason-Dixon Polling and Research recently conducted a joint poll for the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, but Monday the firm announced it will no longer poll the presidential race in the Sunshine state; it is the second major pollster to pull out of Florida.

The group will no longer poll the presidential election in the state after finding Romney up by 6 points in the I-4 corridor.

"Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the media partners. "Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney's going to win Florida.''

Elections are historically won or lost depending on a candidate’s performance in the I-4 corridor that stretches from Tampa Bay area to Daytona Beach on the east coast. Obama trailed Romney 51% to 45% with 4% undecided in the last poll.

The Oct. 22-24 survey focused only on voters in the I-4 corridor, however Obama is in trouble in the Tampa Bay area as well. The west side of Tampa Bay usually mirrors Florida's statewide results.

Obama beat John McCain in Florida and Tampa Bay — defined as Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Polk and Citrus counties by 51% to 48% in 2008.

This month, the poll shows Romney leading Obama in Tampa Bay 50% to 46%, a sign of deep trouble for Obama’s campaign.

"I truly was looking for Obama to go in and bring in some Republicans and say we are going to do things together. The very idea that this country is run without a budget is a shame. How many households can run without a budget?" said Republican David Stratton, 67, a retired home builder in Valrico, one of the voters surveyed. "I blame Obama for that. I'm sorry … he's supposed to lead the country. He's the one who promised hope and change. Not only didn't it happen, he's proven it's nothing more than rhetoric," he said, as quoted in the Times.

The last Mason-Dixon poll highlighted widespread disappointment in Mr. Obama within the electoral heart of America's largest battleground state. Voters in the I-4 corridor disapprove of the president's job performance by 51% while 54% see the country on the wrong track, and 55% say they are not better off today than four years ago.

Mason-Dixon is not the first major polling group to pull out of Florida. Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot at winning those states.

http://www.examiner.com/article/mason-dixon-will-no-longer-poll-florida-predicts-romney-win
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2012, 01:22:57 AM »

That's really, really stupid.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2012, 01:24:54 AM »

That's a bit of a stretch to me. Even if it's PPP, some polls still have FL as a dead heat. If Obama squeaked out a win there it would be quite humiliating for Mason-Dixon.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2012, 01:26:53 AM »

That's a bit of a stretch to me. Even if it's PPP, some polls still have FL as a dead heat. If Obama squeaked out a win there it would be quite humiliating for Mason-Dixon.
This is what blows me away about this. Why, even if you are 100% sure, even 120% sure, would you ever say something like this? No pollster can be this stupid and risk their clientele like this, could they?

Oh yes, yes they could. And their name is Mason-Dixon. (FTR, I think Romney will in fact win FL)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2012, 01:27:46 AM »

So, they are letting their Romney+7 poll from Mid-October stand as their final FL poll ?

That could be fun ...
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2012, 01:29:19 AM »

Mason-Dixon is going to destroy their credibility
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2012, 01:30:46 AM »

Also, Suffolk seriously pulled out of Virginia because "Obama has no shot there"? PPP, Washington Post, Gravis, and Purple Strategies (the last four polls) all have it tied or Obama leading. Even Fox's R+2 is small enough of a gap to warrant polling. What's the matter with some of these groups this year?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2012, 01:31:55 AM »

Also, Suffolk seriously pulled out of Virginia because "Obama has no shot there"? PPP, Washington Post, Gravis, and Purple Strategies (the last four polls) all have it tied or Obama leading. Even Fox's R+2 is small enough of a gap to warrant polling. What's the matter with some of these groups this year?

It could also be an excuse for "We don't have the money to release more polls ..."
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2012, 01:39:12 AM »

Also, Suffolk seriously pulled out of Virginia because "Obama has no shot there"? PPP, Washington Post, Gravis, and Purple Strategies (the last four polls) all have it tied or Obama leading. Even Fox's R+2 is small enough of a gap to warrant polling. What's the matter with some of these groups this year?

It could also be an excuse for "We don't have the money to release more polls ..."
I guess I just find it hard to believe that giving yourself a 55-60% chance of being publicly wrong is better than being right and having to say you have no money left. If anything else, maybe your rightness and plea will lead to an increase in funds. Being utterly wrong certainly will not.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 01:45:05 AM »

Also, Suffolk seriously pulled out of Virginia because "Obama has no shot there"? PPP, Washington Post, Gravis, and Purple Strategies (the last four polls) all have it tied or Obama leading. Even Fox's R+2 is small enough of a gap to warrant polling. What's the matter with some of these groups this year?

It could also be an excuse for "We don't have the money to release more polls ..."
Probably not "we don't have the money," more like -- "our results suggest a Romney win, our limited resources would be better elsewhere."

Likely a calculated gamble that Romney wins FL given the resources that M/D has.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2012, 01:46:46 AM »

I find it to be an outrageous comment from a pollster. It doesn't matter who is leading.  Did Mason-Dixon said the same things when Obama was leading in Florida in 2008? Did they make such ridiculous statements? What about 2004, did they say the same thing about Kerry? What is the motivation here? Could it be a political motivation? Trying to set a narrative? If Obama wins Florida or Virginia, then what does that say about Suffolk and Mason-Dixon. Why are they not saying the same about Ohio? I find it wrong for them to make such statements.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2012, 02:04:20 AM »

Also, Suffolk seriously pulled out of Virginia because "Obama has no shot there"? PPP, Washington Post, Gravis, and Purple Strategies (the last four polls) all have it tied or Obama leading. Even Fox's R+2 is small enough of a gap to warrant polling. What's the matter with some of these groups this year?

It could also be an excuse for "We don't have the money to release more polls ..."

Even if that's the reason, why go public and say such stupid things? You can quietly decide to stop polling some state without anyone noticing.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2012, 02:16:59 AM »

"The very idea that this country is run without a budget is a shame. How many households can run without a budget?"

Comparing running the government to running one's household is an incredibly stupid analogy and I have gotten so tired of it. If I hear it in person, I may very well take a swing at whoever said it. </rant>

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Franzl
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2012, 02:18:08 AM »

Romney will likely win Florida, but it's still a only a slight lean and it could certainly still be won by Obama.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2012, 03:09:45 AM »

The last five (non-Zogby) polls in Florida have been Obama +1, Tie, Obama +1, Tie, Romney +2. But sure, it's definitely in the bag for Romney.

Mason-Dixon is rapidly descending to joke status.
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tokar
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2012, 04:56:01 AM »

I could POSSIBLY understand the desire to pull out of FL and NC for Suffolk, but VA puts them into "joke" status. Both the presidential and senate races are too close NOT to poll.

It is borderline "joke" status for both pollsters because FL has a semi-close senate race which is worth polling. And frankly FL could go one way or the other in the general.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2012, 04:59:09 AM »

I could talk about the mainstream media wanting a horserace, but this isn't the mainstream media.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2012, 05:11:31 AM »

Well, realistically they could only poll it once more, if even that, anyway.

So, they are letting their Romney+7 poll from Mid-October stand as their final FL poll ?

That could be fun ...

They had a more recent one that was Romney +6. Still clearly off (unless they're right and everyone else is wrong).
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Bacon King
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2012, 05:47:10 AM »

Mason-Dixon: "Hey guys we did this one poll that covered like six counties and the results were within the margin of error of the results of these counties in 2008 but lets just call it a day and say Romney wins the whole state"
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opebo
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2012, 06:08:22 AM »

Terrible showing of bias.
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Platypus
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2012, 06:32:30 AM »

Also, Suffolk seriously pulled out of Virginia because "Obama has no shot there"? PPP, Washington Post, Gravis, and Purple Strategies (the last four polls) all have it tied or Obama leading. Even Fox's R+2 is small enough of a gap to warrant polling. What's the matter with some of these groups this year?

Polling is political, and it's news.

Why spin the polls when you can spin the idea of polls without the expense?
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2012, 07:16:54 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2012, 07:26:01 AM by Wonkish1 »

Mason Dixon has the resources and does poll non swing states for various reasons. Hell they just finished a poll in North Dakota for example. But that was primarily to poll the close race between Berg and Heitkamp.

Look there are plenty of pollsters you could accuse of being stupid for pulling out of a state, but Mason Dixon isn't one of them. Most on here if they had to rank the pollsters would put them in the top 5 regardless if they were a GOP or Dem poster. They are consistently one of the best pollsters in the business.

If they are willing to essentially risk their reputation on stating that Romney has Florida in the bag(and by extension Nelson has it in the bag) than you've got to take that with some seriousness.


If Obama does take Florida than yes it will be a blow to Mason Dixon's reputation. If they thought that was possible they wouldn't have said anything. On the flip side they think it will probably even strengthen their reputation to be so confident of a Romney victory going into election day.


Lastly, keep in mind that Mason Dixon also has maintained a particular talent for polling Florida historically.
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2012, 07:40:50 AM »

So, they are letting their Romney+7 poll from Mid-October stand as their final FL poll ?

That could be fun ...

They have done some later sectional polls.  Those numbers must be bloody good for M-D to do this. 

Suffolk might end up being prophetic. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2012, 07:42:10 AM »

So, they are letting their Romney+7 poll from Mid-October stand as their final FL poll ?

That could be fun ...

They have done some later sectional polls.  Those numbers must be bloody good for M-D to do this. 

Suffolk might end up being prophetic. 

Literally everything else in the past week has it in the margin of error.  The most recent poll has Obama up.
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2012, 07:43:34 AM »

So, they are letting their Romney+7 poll from Mid-October stand as their final FL poll ?

That could be fun ...

They have done some later sectional polls.  Those numbers must be bloody good for M-D to do this. 

Suffolk might end up being prophetic. 

Literally everything else in the past week has it in the margin of error.  The most recent poll has Obama up.

I'd still trust M-D more that those others. 
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