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  PPP NC: Still tied.
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Author Topic: PPP NC: Still tied.  (Read 1146 times)
Yank2133
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« on: October 31, 2012, 01:01:17 pm »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney continue to be tied on our new North Carolina poll. Results coming up
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2012, 01:02:23 pm »

I just have a hard time believing that figure. I assume if Obama carries NC again, he's won the election by a pretty sizable margin unless NC has shifted to far to the left that it's a R+1 state or something.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2012, 01:03:37 pm »

If there was state were I would trust PPP the most would be their backyard of North Carolina.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2012, 01:06:56 pm »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/still-tied-in-north-carolina.html

If the race is truly tied, then Obama has already won.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2012, 01:12:56 pm »

Wow.  Will the Obama ground game pick off NC again?

PPP was absolutely spot on in 2008 for Obama, underestimated Perdue by a couple points in the 2008 gubernatorial race (but well within the MOE), nailed the 2008 Senate race, and nailed the 2010 Senate race.

Their track record in NC is absolutely, stunningly fantastic.    
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Simfan34
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2012, 01:16:27 pm »

PPP is losing it.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2012, 01:19:41 pm »

PPP is losing it.

Whatever makes you happy...
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Cliffy
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2012, 01:19:59 pm »

PPP is losing it.

they lost it weeks ago.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2012, 01:21:51 pm »

PPP is losing it.

Whatever makes you happy...

In 2010 and during the primaries they seemed the golden standard, but I suppose they've changed their methodology and it's not really working. Or perhaps it was the forum bubble that made me think that- were they good in the first place?
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Oakvale
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 01:23:55 pm »

PPP is losing it.

Whatever makes you happy...

In 2010 and during the primaries they seemed the golden standard, but I suppose they've changed their methodology and it's not really working. Or perhaps it was the forum bubble that made me think that- were they good in the first place?

There's... no evidence to suggest that PPP has been off this year, other than that some people have decided that NC's a lock for Romney based on some kind of gut feeling and a SUSA poll or two. NC's been tied for months.
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opebo
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2012, 01:27:06 pm »

heheh:

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Yank2133
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2012, 01:27:19 pm »

PPP is losing it.

Whatever makes you happy...

In 2010 and during the primaries they seemed the golden standard, but I suppose they've changed their methodology and it's not really working. Or perhaps it was the forum bubble that made me think that- were they good in the first place?

There's... no evidence to suggest that PPP has been off this year, other than that some people have decided that NC's a lock for Romney based on some kind of gut feeling and a SUSA poll or two. NC's been tied for months.

This.

PPP is based in NC and historically their polls have been very accurate there. It is one thing to crap on them about FL, but NC ( and VA for that matter.....), they know better then anyone.

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Oakvale
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2012, 01:30:28 pm »

PPP is losing it.

Whatever makes you happy...

In 2010 and during the primaries they seemed the golden standard, but I suppose they've changed their methodology and it's not really working. Or perhaps it was the forum bubble that made me think that- were they good in the first place?

There's... no evidence to suggest that PPP has been off this year, other than that some people have decided that NC's a lock for Romney based on some kind of gut feeling and a SUSA poll or two. NC's been tied for months.

This.

PPP is based in NC and historically their polls have been very accurate there. It is one thing to crap on them about FL, but NC ( and VA for that matter.....), they know better then anyone.



Yeah, the polls we have showing Romney ahead in North Carolina are SUSA (pretty bad) and Rasmussen (lol). If I see a CBS or WaPo poll showing Romney leading there I'll take it seriously, but I don't think NC is anything other than a tie right now.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2012, 01:30:54 pm »

PPP is losing it.

Momentum against amendment 1! Momentum against amendment 1!


Add 5 for the real Romney figure.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2012, 01:33:16 pm »

PPP is losing it.

Whatever makes you happy...

In 2010 and during the primaries they seemed the golden standard, but I suppose they've changed their methodology and it's not really working. Or perhaps it was the forum bubble that made me think that- were they good in the first place?

Read above post.  4/4 in the last 4 statewide NC elections, with the ONLY slip up being the 2 pt underestimation of a DEMOCRAT in the 2008 gubernatorial race (but still within the MOE).  Their reputation is not just good, it's unmatched in the state. 

Don't go the way of Cliffy, krazey, and dirks... who decided, based on absolutely nothing, this race was Romney's about 6 months ago and reject anything that would contradict their baseless analysis.  
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Yank2133
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2012, 01:34:03 pm »

PPP is losing it.

Whatever makes you happy...

In 2010 and during the primaries they seemed the golden standard, but I suppose they've changed their methodology and it's not really working. Or perhaps it was the forum bubble that made me think that- were they good in the first place?

There's... no evidence to suggest that PPP has been off this year, other than that some people have decided that NC's a lock for Romney based on some kind of gut feeling and a SUSA poll or two. NC's been tied for months.

This.

PPP is based in NC and historically their polls have been very accurate there. It is one thing to crap on them about FL, but NC ( and VA for that matter.....), they know better then anyone.



Yeah, the polls we have showing Romney ahead in North Carolina are SUSA (pretty bad) and Rasmussen (lol). If I see a CBS or WaPo poll showing Romney leading there I'll take it seriously, but I don't think NC is anything other than a tie right now.

Yeah, even Charlie Cook has moved NC back to toss up.

I still think Romney will win, but it is no lock.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2012, 01:34:59 pm »

I'm willing to give PPP the benefit of the doubt for now... but I won't be blown away if they're wrong.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2012, 01:42:55 pm »

D+12......how far can you go??? rofl
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2012, 01:46:57 pm »

In view of how Colorado, Florida,  Ohio, and Virginia are going... this makes sense.

North Carolina is an absolute must-win for Mitt Romney, and not a necessity for President Obama. New polls for Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana would be interesting. Not necessary -- just interesting.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2012, 01:48:35 pm »

D+12......how far can you go??? rofl

That's not too far off. There are a lot of Dixiecrats in NC that will vote for Romney but still vote Democrat at the state level, although it seems to be the opposite this year. I doubt Obama wins Independents and the crosstabs show Obama winning the youth vote ONLY 53-47, which obviously won't be true.

But like I said, I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt because of their strong track record.
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dirks
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2012, 01:49:49 pm »

D+12!!!! And the best they can do for Obama is a tie? Good lord, DDD is an absolute joke
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2012, 01:51:02 pm »

D+12......how far can you go??? rofl

Democrat: 2,849,683, 43%
Republican: 2,040,552, 31%

source: NC State Board of Elections, updated 3 days ago

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/webapps/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-27-2012

43-31=?.  Cmon Cliff, I know you know this one.  
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2012, 02:08:08 pm »

PPP is actually in the polling consensus when it comes to the state of the race in NC. Civitas and Elon (also both located in North Carolina) also show the race as a tie. Republicans (and even some Democrats) are going to be very surprised by how close this race is on Tuesday.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2012, 02:16:57 pm »

D+12......how far can you go??? rofl

So the random sample of respondents had 12% more people identifying as Democrats.  This seems more likely to indicate that more people are identifying as Democrats than that the sample is skewed.  Party ID is something that can easily change; personally speaking, in 37 years as a voter I've identified at various times as a Republican, a Democrat, a Libertarian, and most recently as an Independent. 

If only one or two of these polls showed "unexpectedly" large D samples, it would probably mean they were outlying samples.  But when a LOT of polls -- from multiple pollsters -- show such samples...it's probably a better indication that the electorate's self-identification is changing.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2012, 03:21:00 pm »

D+12......how far can you go??? rofl

Democrat: 2,849,683, 43%
Republican: 2,040,552, 31%

source: NC State Board of Elections, updated 3 days ago

BoE Data

43-31=?.  Cmon Cliff/dirks, I know you know this one.
 
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