October Jobs Report to be released Friday
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Joe Biden 2020
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« on: October 31, 2012, 01:42:41 PM »

Even with Sandy causing extreme devastation and talk that the jobs report might be delayed, word has been released that the jobs report will come out Friday morning on schedule.  What will the report show as far as unemployment rate and jobs added.  What effect will it have on Election Day voters?
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2012, 02:12:18 PM »

Even with Sandy causing extreme devastation and talk that the jobs report might be delayed, word has been released that the jobs report will come out Friday morning on schedule.  What will the report show as far as unemployment rate and jobs added.  What effect will it have on Election Day voters?
I don't think there's much of an upside for Obama here. If the job report is fairly good then nothing will change. He'll need a really strong jobs report to score any points at this stage. However, if the report is mediocre or downright bad it will hurt him. Having this job report come out this close to the election is bad luck for Obama.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2012, 02:16:17 PM »

Even with Sandy causing extreme devastation and talk that the jobs report might be delayed, word has been released that the jobs report will come out Friday morning on schedule.  What will the report show as far as unemployment rate and jobs added.  What effect will it have on Election Day voters?
I don't think there's much of an upside for Obama here. If the job report is fairly good then nothing will change. He'll need a really strong jobs report to score any points at this stage. However, if the report is mediocre or downright bad it will hurt him. Having this job report come out this close to the election is bad luck for Obama.

It could hurt even worse if August and September were to be revised downward.  A lot of times you'll see the two prior months revised...
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2012, 02:16:38 PM »

There is chatter out there on the Fruited Plain that it is more  likely to go up than down, because the last report had some alleged "anomalies," "artificially lowering the unemployment number a tad vis a vis the number actually working. Whether that chat is just jive or not, I have no clue.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2012, 02:27:14 PM »

ADP is saying they are revising down 365k.  lol  no cooked numbers last time......
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2012, 03:07:26 PM »

I expect it to be 8.0. These things are surveys and estimates not exact. That is why there are  often revisions. There is margin for error.  After dropping so much last month I expect it to tick up a bit, if only to compensate, but with an overall downward trend for the year.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2012, 03:12:17 PM »

This jobs report will have no effect, just like every other jobs report has had no effect.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2012, 04:15:15 PM »

ADP is saying they are revising down 365k.  lol  no cooked numbers last time......

If they cooked numbers last time why in the world wouldn't they do so again now four days before the election?
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2012, 04:17:12 PM »

ADP is saying they are revising down 365k.  lol  no cooked numbers last time......

If they cooked numbers last time why in the world wouldn't they do so again now four days before the election?
Clearly the boys over at ADP were cooking the numbers for an exciting election and not an Obamalicious one.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 05:27:54 PM »

ADP is saying they are revising down 365k.  lol  no cooked numbers last time......

If they cooked numbers last time why in the world wouldn't they do so again now four days before the election?

ADP didn't cook the numbers their survey for Sept did not line up with BLS.  The BLS did cook there's, I didn't expect a negative revision until next month though, be surprised if we get it Fri.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2012, 06:07:37 PM »

I think 7.7 or better and Obama gets a boost and a narrative for the last weekend.

8.0 or worse and Romney has the marrative.

7.8 or 7.9 has no impact.

My Prediction?

8.0 and 110K jobs.
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5280
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2012, 06:10:06 PM »

My prediction is 7.9%, around 120k jobs, which is no impact.
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Beet
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2012, 09:46:04 PM »

1. The Chicago business barometer came in at 49.9 today, with the employment subindex especially weak. This portends job growth at about the same as last month, although I wouldn't be surprised if it was less than 100k. This is especially if tomorrow's ISM manufacturing report comes in below 50.

There is chatter out there on the Fruited Plain that it is more  likely to go up than down, because the last report had some alleged "anomalies," "artificially lowering the unemployment number a tad vis a vis the number actually working. Whether that chat is just jive or not, I have no clue.

2. What anomalies?

3. If the Gallup poll is any indication, we shouldn't see a big jump in the unemployment rate. In September, Gallup nailed unemployment, it was polling at about 7.9 percent mid-month. In October, it was polling at 7.4 percent. Unemployment claims, except for an beginning-of-quarter jump, also suggest a durable labor market.

4. Standard caveats apply when looking at single monthly figures. The three-month average is more important, and the long-term (six months or more) average is more important still.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2012, 08:05:51 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2012, 08:29:29 AM by Speed of Sound »

ADP is saying that 158,000 jobs were created, beating the expectation of 143,000.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/01/news/economy/adp-jobs-initial-claims/index.html

This is site claims that the ADP hasn't been a great predictor of the BLS jobs report, but is the first to feature a new methodology to line it up better with BLS reports. I guess we'll see.


(Edited with better link/more info)
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2012, 11:17:33 AM »

@Speed of Sound: That one also notes a drop in first-time benefit claimants.

Suspect this will have little to no impact on a race where Obama is now the modest favourite, either way - a lot of people have already voted or firmly made up their minds.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2012, 11:19:31 AM »

@Speed of Sound: That one also notes a drop in first-time benefit claimants.

Suspect this will have little to no impact on a race where Obama is now the modest favourite, either way - a lot of people have already voted or firmly made up their minds.
That's all I want out of it. Smiley
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