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Author Topic: NBC/Marist: Obama leads in Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire  (Read 558 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: October 31, 2012, 11:07:03 pm »
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http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/31/14842207-nbcwsjmarist-polls-obama-leads-in-iowa-running-neck-and-neck-in-nh-wis?lite

Iowa
Obama 50
Romney 44

NH
Obama 49
Romney 47

Wisconsin
Obama 49
Romney 46
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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2012, 11:10:37 pm »
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Uni poll. 
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J. J.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2012, 11:13:06 pm »
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Obama +3 in Wisconsin = neck and neck.

Romney +3 in Wisconsin = Romney with a commanding lead!
« Last Edit: October 31, 2012, 11:17:35 pm by Eraserhead »Logged

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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2012, 11:16:20 pm »
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I wonder how Chuck Todd (the Tim Russert of 2012) breaks this poll down tomorrow.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2012, 11:19:45 pm »
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Obama's leads have shrunk by a small amount in Wisconsin and Iowa since the polls earlier in the month, but his leads in those always looked a bit outlier-y.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2012, 11:19:45 pm »
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NH slowly drifting over to Obama, now at 49%.  Iowa's looking solid.  Wisconsin probably around a +5/6 when all polls are averaged
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2012, 11:23:29 pm »
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NBC/Marist will be releasing more polls in the coming days:

Quote
Exciting news, y'all: We'll have a series of battleground state and national polls over the next few days at @NBCNews. Stay tuned.
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pepper11
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2012, 11:28:44 pm »
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They make a very interesting statement in their commentary.

532,000 early and absentee votes, about 35 percent of the 2008 electorate; 660,000 absentee requests, 43 percent of Iowa’s 2008 electorate.

Basically, their baseline electorate is 2008, and they are openly admitting this poll shows a more Democratic electorate than that baseline 2008 even with the more conservative early vote estimate. Joke.
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2012, 11:31:00 pm »
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Uni poll.  
Did you see the little tidbit about early voting in Iowa?

In Iowa, according to the poll, 45 percent of respondents say they have already voted early or plan to do so, and Obama is winning those voters by nearly 30 points, 62 percent to 35 percent.

Meanwhile, Republicans account for 32-percent of the early vote per the Iowa SoS, Democrats 44-percent. Apparently, there are a whole lot of Democrats who are just waiting to vote early.

Either that or Republicans are leaving Romney in droves or Independents are overwhelmingly pro-Obama. Neither is the case in the real world.
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Devils30
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2012, 11:34:56 pm »
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If Rasmussen was so f**ing good why don't they make their data widely available!!
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