NBC/Marist: Obama leads in Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire

[Lief 🗽]

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/31/14842207-nbcwsjmarist-polls-obama-leads-in-iowa-running-neck-and-neck-in-nh-wis?lite

Iowa
Obama 50
Romney 44

NH
Obama 49
Romney 47

Wisconsin
Obama 49
Romney 46

[J. J.]

Uni poll. 

[Eraserhead]

Obama +3 in Wisconsin = neck and neck.

Romney +3 in Wisconsin = Romney with a commanding lead!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I wonder how Chuck Todd (the Tim Russert of 2012) breaks this poll down tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama's leads have shrunk by a small amount in Wisconsin and Iowa since the polls earlier in the month, but his leads in those always looked a bit outlier-y.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/31/14842207-nbcwsjmarist-polls-obama-leads-in-iowa-running-neck-and-neck-in-nh-wis?lite

Iowa
Obama 50
Romney 44

NH
Obama 49
Romney 47

Wisconsin
Obama 49
Romney 46

NH slowly drifting over to Obama, now at 49%.  Iowa's looking solid.  Wisconsin probably around a +5/6 when all polls are averaged

[Lief 🗽]

NBC/Marist will be releasing more polls in the coming days:

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[pepper11]

They make a very interesting statement in their commentary.

532,000 early and absentee votes, about 35 percent of the 2008 electorate; 660,000 absentee requests, 43 percent of Iowa’s 2008 electorate.

Basically, their baseline electorate is 2008, and they are openly admitting this poll shows a more Democratic electorate than that baseline 2008 even with the more conservative early vote estimate. Joke.

[Seriously?]

Uni poll.  

Did you see the little tidbit about early voting in Iowa?

In Iowa, according to the poll, 45 percent of respondents say they have already voted early or plan to do so, and Obama is winning those voters by nearly 30 points, 62 percent to 35 percent.

Meanwhile, Republicans account for 32-percent of the early vote per the Iowa SoS, Democrats 44-percent. Apparently, there are a whole lot of Democrats who are just waiting to vote early.

Either that or Republicans are leaving Romney in droves or Independents are overwhelmingly pro-Obama. Neither is the case in the real world.

[Devils30]

If Rasmussen was so f**ing good why don't they make their data widely available!!