New Mexico and Iowa (user search)
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  New Mexico and Iowa (search mode)
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Author Topic: New Mexico and Iowa  (Read 3464 times)
angus
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« on: March 31, 2004, 02:19:42 PM »

why do people automatically assume Bush will win these states just because they were close last time? There's really nothing that's happened to them that has made them more friendly to Bush. Iowa was actually one of the most anti-war states according to polls so I say Bush will have an even tougher time than he did in 2000, and New Mexico has been turning more Dem, more and more Hispanics are coming in and Richardson won in a landslide. Sure they're far from guaranteed for Kerry, but definately not guaranteed for Bush either.
I can only speak for myself, but my answer is NO.  As I have stated repeatedly, a different Democrat may very well have won my vote, or this Democrat, running for a different office may have won my vote.  (I have voted for JFKerry in the past, and may again, if the opportunity presents itself.)  You'll not find anyone who is more anti-Iraq war than I.  And that has a great deal to do with the fact that I will, after nearly 20 years of voting, vote for a Republican for President for the first time.  I suspect that I'm not the only logical thinker out there, but that may be optimistic.
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angus
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« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2004, 02:55:30 PM »

Bush has made inroads into Hispanics... and NM is too remote for Kerry to bother with anyways.

yes, and this is why NM will be the most likely switch.  Everyone keeps asking, "what happened in the states?" or "are the voters more liberal or more conservative now than...?"  Did it occur to anyone that there are actually candidates campaigning?  And that the identity of these candidates matter?  That what they say matters?  Not to lifelong anti-Bush Democrats, or lifelong anti-Kerry Republicans.  But to that small fraction who actually decide elections, these things matter.  I stand by my original map of 4 months ago, polls be dammed, Bush will win everything he did last time plus NM, and not a single state more.
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angus
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« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2004, 03:02:30 PM »

you've decided west virgina will come back to the Dems?
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angus
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« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2004, 03:04:57 PM »

I only know of one credible student of coal belt voting habits on this thread.  Smiley
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angus
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2004, 03:06:10 PM »

well, two.  
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angus
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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2004, 03:34:30 PM »

Yes, but then I realized Vorlon was here too.  Al, you have an encyclopedic knowledge of that area and its social milieu and its voting proclivities.  How did you come by all that information, anyway?
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