why do people automatically assume Bush will win these states just because they were close last time? There's really nothing that's happened to them that has made them more friendly to Bush. Iowa was actually one of the most anti-war states according to polls so I say Bush will have an even tougher time than he did in 2000, and New Mexico has been turning more Dem, more and more Hispanics are coming in and Richardson won in a landslide. Sure they're far from guaranteed for Kerry, but definately not guaranteed for Bush either.
I can only speak for myself, but my answer is NO. As I have stated repeatedly, a different Democrat may very well have won my vote, or this Democrat, running for a different office may have won my vote. (I have voted for JFKerry in the past, and may again, if the opportunity presents itself.) You'll not find anyone who is more anti-Iraq war than I. And that has a great deal to do with the fact that I will, after nearly 20 years of voting, vote for a Republican for President for the first time. I suspect that I'm not the only logical thinker out there, but that may be optimistic.