Bush has made inroads into Hispanics... and NM is too remote for Kerry to bother with anyways.
Bush will win NM. He lost by 400 some votes last time and was hurt big by the DUI there at the last minute. He will also pick up at least 4-6% more of the Hispanic vote. Kerry will play well in some states, but NM is not one. (This is all assuming Bill Richardson is not the VP nominee)
However, Bush will probably lose Iowa. Most people forget that votes cast the day of the election in 2000, Bush was ahead, but Gore killed him on absentee ballots. I think the primaires did heavy damage to Bush, making it tougher for him to win in 04.
