New Mexico and Iowa

[Gustaf]

The most likely pickup for Bush is probably Pennsylvania...

Iowa has Kerry with big leads ratehr consistently, and that makes me think it'll go for Kerry. New Mexico I don't know. That state together with the 3 steel states, Florida and New Hampshire are probably those who actually will change hands.

[Gustaf]

Bush has made inroads into Hispanics... and NM is too remote for Kerry to bother with anyways.

That's a good point, I would've thought that geography would matter some. Kerry wants a coherent group of states to campaign in.

[Gustaf]

Bush has made inroads into Hispanics... and NM is too remote for Kerry to bother with anyways.

yes, and this is why NM will be the most likely switch.  Everyone keeps asking, "what happened in the states?" or "are the voters more liberal or more conservative now than...?"  Did it occur to anyone that there are actually candidates campaigning?  And that the identity of these candidates matter?  That what they say matters?  Not to lifelong anti-Bush Democrats, or lifelong anti-Kerry Republicans.  But to that small fraction who actually decide elections, these things matter.  I stand by my original map of 4 months ago, polls be dammed, Bush will win everything he did last time plus NM, and not a single state more.

Sounds reasonable, but I think Bush might lose FL while gaining PA. He might also lose New Hampshire, but it wouldn't matter.

[Gustaf]

you've decided west virgina will come back to the Dems?

Who are you talking to there Angus?

[Gustaf]

well, two.  

OK, you were talking to Al then I guess.

[Gustaf]

Yes, but then I realized Vorlon was here too.  Al, you have an encyclopedic knowledge of that area and its social milieu and its voting proclivities.  How did you come by all that information, anyway?

He's a 'know-it-Al'

And Kerry can win without PA simply b/c it isn't as Dem as some people think. I see Kerry winning Florida before Pennsylkvania.

[Gustaf]

why do people automatically assume Bush will win these states just because they were close last time? There's really nothing that's happened to them that has made them more friendly to Bush. Iowa was actually one of the most anti-war states according to polls so I say Bush will have an even tougher time than he did in 2000, and New Mexico has been turning more Dem, more and more Hispanics are coming in and Richardson won in a landslide. Sure they're far from guaranteed for Kerry, but definately not guaranteed for Bush either.

I thought people were predicting Iowa for Bush because of an increase in GOP vs. Dem registration there.. but I looked at the Gallup weekly report thing in the library (I don't think its fully available online?) and it said Iowa has not become more Republican.  Plenty of other states have, including NM, but not IA.  

2 polls have shown Kerry with a clear lead there, that's my main reason.

[Gustaf]

Yes, but then I realized Vorlon was here too.  Al, you have an encyclopedic knowledge of that area and its social milieu and its voting proclivities.  How did you come by all that information, anyway?

Most coal mining areas are very similer. Southern WV is like the South Wales Valleys, but on a larger scale.
And I find out things from everywhere... and what I find scary is that I remember them...

I recognize that...good memory can be scary some times.