NV-SurveyUSA: Obama+4

[Tender Branson]

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,500 adults, Oct. 23, 2012, through Oct. 29, 2012. Of the adults, 1,292 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,212 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day, Nov. 6, 2012.

1,212 Likely & Actual Voters (Margin of Sampling Error: +/-2.9%)

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/oct_2012_polls_president_110112.html

[Speed of Sound]

Add it to the pile of good news!

[Seriously?]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

[DemPGH]

This one's gone, and it's interesting that it suddenly dropped off everyone's radar. If the northern midwest goes, as looks like it will, Mitt's got to mostly run the table, and Mitt and Ryan having to defend Florida with Biden there is not good news for the GOP.

[Mister Twister]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

Dude, seriously? Nevada is gone for the GOP

[Cliffy]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

I think it's going to be alot closer than 4.  If you follow Ralston, he's saying it's not done.

[Seriously?]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

Dude, seriously? Nevada is gone for the GOP

I don't know how you can say a state that's within 4% is "gone" at this point. If it were "gone," Paul Ryan wouldn't be making a campaign stop in Reno today and Barack Obama would not be campaigning in Nevada as well.

It's leaning Obama, yes. I am not convinced that given the ACTUAL early vote data that it's a slam dunk and nailed down yet. Huge difference.

[Mister Twister]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

Dude, seriously? Nevada is gone for the GOP

I don't know how you can say a state that's within 4% is "gone" at this point. If it were "gone," Paul Ryan wouldn't be making a campaign stop in Reno today and Barack Obama would not be campaigning in Nevada as well.

It's leaning Obama, yes. I am not convinced that given the ACTUAL early vote data that it's a slam dunk and nailed down yet. Huge difference.

Dude, seriously?

[Seriously?]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

Dude, seriously? Nevada is gone for the GOP

I don't know how you can say a state that's within 4% is "gone" at this point. If it were "gone," Paul Ryan wouldn't be making a campaign stop in Reno today and Barack Obama would not be campaigning in Nevada as well.

It's leaning Obama, yes. I am not convinced that given the ACTUAL early vote data that it's a slam dunk and nailed down yet. Huge difference.

Dude, seriously?

Do you want to address the substance of my comment?

If the race is "gone," why are both Ryan and Obama campaigning there today? Explain that please.

The data shows a lean Obama, but not a slam dunk yet. That's why. Turnout could determine who wins Nevada at the end of the day.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

Dude, seriously? Nevada is gone for the GOP

I don't know how you can say a state that's within 4% is "gone" at this point. If it were "gone," Paul Ryan wouldn't be making a campaign stop in Reno today and Barack Obama would not be campaigning in Nevada as well.

It's leaning Obama, yes. I am not convinced that given the ACTUAL early vote data that it's a slam dunk and nailed down yet. Huge difference.

As with Wisconsin, its a combination of just-in-case the polls are wrong, combined with a healthy dose of support our party's Senate candidate that is bringing the tickets to Nevada.  If it weren't for the Senate race, neither Ryan nor Obama would be heading to Nevada. Looking purely at the Presidential map, they've got more important fish to fry that would reduce travel time if attended to instead of Nevada.  (At this point, it's time and not money they need to conserve.)