Chilean Municipal Elections, October 2012.

[Lumine]

I'm sorry to interrupt, but I think it's quite interesting (and surprising) to see chilean politics discussed here...  While the Coalition for Change did have a serious defeat (mostly because of turnout, otherwise they would have won a few more municipalities), I feel that having the same levels of voting than previous elections (with the key exception of 2008) with the goverment having so low approval ratings is still a good sign for them.

I doubt Bachelet will run (even though she's even more likely to win here in 2013 than Hillary Clinton in 2016), so the field should be quite competitve in the first round (I expect Jocelyn-Holt of ChilePrimero and the independent Franco Parisi to garner a few votes and the PRO to hit double digits again) and the exact opposite of the 2000 election, were the "alternative" candidates couldn't get past 5% together.

On a last note, I will have to disagree about Labbe, even with him being a supporter of Augusto Pinochet he was efficent as a mayor, and that should be the important thing about Municipal Elections.

PS: Magnificent map! I'm not used to see political maps in national politics...

[Lumine]

I'm sorry to interrupt...

You're not interrupting at all. I'd appreciate very much your insights. I'm Spaniard and I'm looking this election from the outside. I'd like to learn more about politics in Chile.

I think that you're right, the Chilean right was defeated but the outcome wasn't catastrophic. On the other hand polls show that Bachelet could win if she decides to run but Laurence Golborne is not too far. I have some doubts about the complex process of primaries inside the different parties/coalitions. Do you think that turnout was more harmful to the government coalition than it was for the oposition? For what the several Chileans that I've met told me, there's a great indifference and dissapointment towards the political system and politicians in general, especially among young people.

As for Labbe, I must concede that voters in Providencia thought in the same way of yours in previous elections. People voted for him regardless of his background. This time he was defeated by an independent candidate, Josefa Errazuriz. It was a contest with only two candidates because Errazuriz was backed by all the oposition parties after being elected in a primary.

Thank you very much, Velasco, it's fantastic to see interest in a country with weird politics as Chile (let's face it, they are quite unusual...). I think you're right about the turnout damaging the goverment, since the opposition has more motivation to vote for their candidates and ideals (Even though I support the Coalition for Change the opposition is absolutely leading in motivation and ideas right now), a factor which explains the defeat of three leading mayors in Santiago: Labbe (defeated because he couldn't inspire enthusiasm like Errazuriz), Zalaquett (beaten because Toha mas far more charismatic) and Sabat (he lost only because of low turnout).

Thanks for the welcome, drj101! I hope I can be of some help discusing chilean politics (and eventually world politics). My opinion about Eduardo Frei's defeat in 2009 is that everything that could go wrong in the Concertacion went absolutely wrong. A strong candidate splitting the left vote (Ominami, who had the same impact that Piñera and Lavin had in 2005 dividing the right), an unpopular candidate (people generally think he was ineffective during the asian crisis of 1997 and that he gave free land to Argentina), an effective campaign by Piñera and the Coalition, bad municipal results in 2008 and a disorganized campaign effort by Frei himself. In a certain way, Piñera was incredibly lucky in that election... (Hope that answers your question!)

[Lumine]

Carolina Tohá stated that her victory was a triumph of Bacheletismo, isn't it?. In the case that she won't finally run for the Presidence, and it seems that you consider that this is the most probable scenary, do you think that other candidate could be able of unite the opposition behind him/her? 

Well, while I think it's impossible to have just one opposition candidate in the first round, I can think of three candidates who can unite the opposition very easily (the rest of them also can, it will just take more time for them): Mayor Toha is the first option, ex-minister, charismatic, now a victor and very experienced with presidential politics (she managed Frei's campaign during the second round, and avoided some mistakes of the first). Next we have Andres Velasco, Bachelet's minister of finance, popular, independent (He's the Golborne of the Concertacion) and efficent. Mayor Claudio Orrego is young, charismatic and a successful mayor (plus he's from the Christian Democratic Party and more of a centrist), but he doesn't have support from the establishment.

I left Ominami out because I don't think he will get as many votes as 2009 (at least not enough votes to get to the second round, just like Senator Alejandro Navarro), and the rest of the Concertacion candidates are either wild cards (Senators Ignacio Walker and Jose Antonio Gomez), underdogs (Senator Ximena Rincon) or not really popular (Senator Girardi).

Anyway, the field is starting to look so crowded that any predictions won't have any credibility until March-April of 2013, when most candidatures to Primaries or First Round will be ready to go. The only things I would like to see are Bachelet not running (just to have a really exciting and unexpected race), strong independent candidates and a credible candidate from the Coalition for Change. If those things happen, excitement might be able to restore turnout...

[Lumine]

Sorry for the delay in answering, the Coalition for Change candidates could be counted as only two right now: Golborne and Allamand. Matthei doesn't seem to want the job (even if she was a candidate in 1993 and she had to withdraw her candidacy due to a scandal involving the actual President), and Longueira is one of the most unpopular politicians en Chile (mostly due to close links with the deceased Senator Jaime Guzman, the most influential right-wing politician of the Pinochet years).

Joaquin Lavin (ex-mayor, presidential candidate in 1999-2000, 2005, failed senatorial candidate, former minister of education and actual minister of mideplan) lost his remaning popularity with the protests of 2011, so we can count him out. Ironically, Lavin, Longueira, Allamand and Matthei have been with the Alliance/Coalition since the 1980', so Golborne is the real outsider.

If anything, Allamand has more establishment backing (the apparent support of the President and of National Renewal), pretty good ties to the right-wing businessmen, relative popularity and experience, while Golborne is more popular, anti-establishment and more likely lo get the support of the UDI and the independents. In a primary Golborne would destroy Allamand, but in a party convention Allamand might pull it out.

I expect the field to look pretty much like this:

First Round:

Concertacion:
-Ex-President Michelle Bachelet (45-55%)
-Mayor Carolina Toha/Mayor Claudio Orrego (40-45%)
-Other candidates (35-45%)

Coalition:
-Minister Andres Allamand (20-30%)
-Minister Laurence Golborne (25-35%)

Independent:
-Businessman Franco Parisi (5-15%) - Parisi reminds me of Francisco Javier Errazuriz, a fascinating center-right populist businessman (who later got to be a Senator) who got 15% of the vote in 1989.

Independent:
-Activist Marcel Claude (0-2%)

PC/Together we can do more/Humanist/Equality Party:
-Tomas Hirsch?/Jorge Arrate?/Guillermo Teiller? (2-5%)

Chile Primero:
-Ex-Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (0-2%)

PRO:
-Ex-Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (5-20%) - He will only stand a chance taking votes from a establishment non-bacheletist Concertacion candidate.

PRI:
-Ambassador Adolfo Zaldivar? (0-4%)

No more than eight candidates, five or six likely.

Second Round:

Concertacion vs Coalition: 55-45% or 65-35%, the first being a generic candidate and a optimistic scenario for the Coalition and the second being Bachelet.
Concertacion vs PRO: 70-30% or 55-45% depending on whom the Coalition supports.
Concertacion vs Parisi: 60-40% or 55-45% should Parisi get lucky.

It's hard to see a Coalition path to victory, but I suppose I can dream a little... However, this presidential election (I believe I'm quite off topic right now) can go three ways:

1989: Strong Concertacion candidate, weak Coalition/Alliance, strong independent (Parisi)
1993: Strong Concertacion candidate, weak Coalition/Alliance, weak alternative candidates.
2013: A whole new election, with strong candidates for Coalition, Concertacion, Independent and PRO.