Romney's strategy a little too cute??

[Devils30]

Honestly, I don't get why he is going to PA while Ryan is going to MN. He's basically taking a chance on states Obama has more or less locked up. Most have PA and MN at around 4-7 for Obama and he's over 50. Romney isn't visiting CO, NH and only spending a little time in IA. He risks giving Obama the CO/NH/IA small state path to 270 in the event he pulls out Ohio.

[5280]

Honestly, I don't get why he is going to PA while Ryan is going to MN. He's basically taking a chance on states Obama has more or less locked up. Most have PA and MN at around 4-7 for Obama and he's over 50. Romney isn't visiting CO, NH and only spending a little time in IA. He risks giving Obama the CO/NH/IA small state path to 270 in the event he pulls out Ohio.

Romney is going to be in CO this Saturday, try again.

[Devils30]

But he's put little October time into it and non-Rasmussen has Obama ahead.

[DrScholl]

It seems that the strategy is to sneak up on the President in those states and pull an upset that makes up for losing Ohio. It's a strategy with low odds, but at this point, they probably feel as if they have nothing to lose by trying it.

[Cliffy]

romney evidently feels he has NC, FL, CO locked up.  I agreee with him.  Probably VA too.

[Lief 🗽]

High-risk, high-reward hail marry pass strategy. Hope that GOTV/momentum/magic can keep FL, CO, VA, NC in line and that a huge final effort can flip PA, MN, and/or MI to make up for OH, which isn't budging.

[LiberalJunkie]

romney evidently feels he has NC, FL, CO locked up.  I agreee with him.  Probably VA too.

Have you seen polls lately?

[King]

romney evidently feels he has NC, FL, CO locked up.  I agreee with him.  Probably VA too.

Have you seen polls lately?

Yes, and when he unskews them Romney's at 400 EVs.

[Zioneer]

romney evidently feels he has NC, FL, CO locked up.  I agreee with him.  Probably VA too.

Nope, sorry. Maybe NC for sure and probably FL as well, but not VA or CO.

[ProudModerate2]

romney evidently feels he has NC, FL, CO locked up.  I agreee with him.  Probably VA too.

Have you seen polls lately?

Yes, and when he unskews them Romney's at 400 EVs.

400 !! LOL.

I agree with others that Romney will more than likely take NC and probably FL. But CO and VA are a very very tight race, and they shouldnt be wasting their time and resources in a state like Minnesota.

[tmthforu94]

At this point, Romney just has to assume that North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia will fall to him, because those states alone won't get him to 270. Barring a miracle, it also appears that Ohio is going to stick with the President, so his best option left is probably throwing a bunch of time and money at a few states that are leaning Obama, but states where he doesn't have the strong organization like he does in Ohio. Romney probably made a mistake by leaving Pennsylvania earlier this fall, but then again, how was he supposed to know Ohio was going to be so stubborn?

Could this be the map Romney is going for?

[Fargobison]

I don't see anything wrong with going to PA at this point.

That said I don't know what Ryan is doing in MN, his time is better spent in WI, IA, OH, or CO.

[SPC]

The PA/MN strategy doesn't make sense. The only way Romney wins the election is if the national polls turn out to be correct and the state polls are all off by ~3 points, in which case he would be better off securing OH and other borderline states rather than trying to expand the map at the last minute.

[badgate]

"Oh my God, I love your strategy! Where'd you get it?"
"It was McCain's, in '08."
"Vintage, so adorable"

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point, Romney just has to assume that North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia will fall to him, because those states alone won't get him to 270. Barring a miracle, it also appears that Ohio is going to stick with the President, so his best option left is probably throwing a bunch of time and money at a few states that are leaning Obama, but states where he doesn't have the strong organization like he does in Ohio. Romney probably made a mistake by leaving Pennsylvania earlier this fall, but then again, how was he supposed to know Ohio was going to be so stubborn?

Could this be the map Romney is going for?

PA going rep while OH goes dem = no.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

"Oh my God, I love your strategy! Where'd you get it?"
"It was McCain's, in '08."
"Vintage, so adorable"

'...That is the ugliest effing strategy I've ever seen.'

[Likely Voter]

Sometime back in the summer Team Romney probably felt really proud of themselves for deciding not to dive into the same rabbit hole of MN, MI and PA and wasting money like Bush and McCain did. All you needed was the states Bush won both times and you are POTUS, even without NV and those new pesky brown voters. You could even lose CO too if you picked up NH or IA (both of which Bush won once). It was a clean and efficient strategy and I'm sure they gave themselves bonuses for thinking of it.

[Seriously?]

High-risk, high-reward hail marry pass strategy. Hope that GOTV/momentum/magic can keep FL, CO, VA, NC in line and that a huge final effort can flip PA, MN, and/or MI to make up for OH, which isn't budging.

I don't know why the Democrats on this board insist that Ohio is anything other than completely and entirely in play. The state polling data suggests a slight Obama lead, but obviously that lead is fluid.

If Ohio were "in the bag" for Obama, the President wouldn't basically be camping there over the weekend. The Obama internals in Wisconsin must also be soft, because Obama is making a pair of trips there over the last five days.

Yes, PA, MN and MI are reach states for Romney. But the Romney camp and the Romney aligned PACs have plenty of money to reach these states. The strategy was to hold onto this money for a last minute assault, which will go largely unanswered by the Obama camp.

The foray by Ryan into MN is a two-fer, it's also covers the NW Wisconsin media market.

The PA stop by Romney is a bit of a head scratcher, because Pittsburgh would seemingly be the better suited stop that could leak a bit into Eastern OH. So a stop in the Philly suburbs surprised me a bit.

Under the Romney strategy, the election in PA will be won (if it can be won) with coal votes in Western PA, those bitter gun and bible clingers in the center of the state and middle and upper class suburban voters in both the Pittsburgh and Philly markets

At the end of the day, this campaign stop is designed to set a narrative in the vapid lamestream press that Romney is on the offensive while Obama is defending some crucial battelground states. Who knows if it will have the intended affect. But I can't fault the strategy.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama has a durable lead of at least 2-3% in the polling. Ohio has been by far the most polled state in the country. It's a clear lean Obama state. I guess it's technically in play, but Obama is strongly favored there.

There's absolutely no incentive for him to do anything but camp out in Ohio (and Wisconsin; Nevada has already mostly voted and is entirely GOTV now). It doesn't matter if he wins with 270 votes or 300-something, a win is a win. OH + WI + NV = election is over.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Romney going into Pennsylvania is dumb, but at this point, it's the least dumb of his myriad dumb options.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Romney is trying to replicate what worked for him in the primaries.  Bury your opponent in last minute advertising in states he isn't competing in.  He can't do that in Ohio for obvious reasons.  Plus, without Ohio, he needs at least one of these longshots to work.  Of course the obvious difference is that most people already know what they think of Obama, so Romney can't define him as effectively as he did Gingrinch and Santorum.  I doubt it will work, but I don't see a better option for Team Romney.

[Seriously?]

Obama has a durable lead of at least 2-3% in the polling. Ohio has been by far the most polled state in the country. It's a clear lean Obama state. I guess it's technically in play, but Obama is strongly favored there.

There's absolutely no incentive for him to do anything but camp out in Ohio (and Wisconsin; Nevada has already mostly voted and is entirely GOTV now). It doesn't matter if he wins with 270 votes or 300-something, a win is a win. OH + WI + NV = election is over.

Still waiting for a number for you on what you think it's going to take with the early vote for Obama to win in Nevada. Is there a magic number in your mind for Clark County? Or an over padded edge throughout the state that will be comfortable enough for an Obama win.

Historically, will a 60-65K vote lead in Clark and a 30-40K lead statewide be enough if Romney leads I by 5-10%?

[SPQR]

Romney's team has played President Forever for way too long; such a desperate last minute ad-blitz strategy only used to work in PF2004...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

High-risk, high-reward hail marry pass strategy. Hope that GOTV/momentum/magic can keep FL, CO, VA, NC in line and that a huge final effort can flip PA, MN, and/or MI to make up for OH, which isn't budging.

I don't know why the Democrats on this board insist that Ohio is anything other than completely and entirely in play. The state polling data suggests a slight Obama lead, but obviously that lead is fluid.

If Ohio were "in the bag" for Obama, the President wouldn't basically be camping there over the weekend. The Obama internals in Wisconsin must also be soft, because Obama is making a pair of trips there over the last five days.

Yes, PA, MN and MI are reach states for Romney. But the Romney camp and the Romney aligned PACs have plenty of money to reach these states. The strategy was to hold onto this money for a last minute assault, which will go largely unanswered by the Obama camp.

The foray by Ryan into MN is a two-fer, it's also covers the NW Wisconsin media market.

The PA stop by Romney is a bit of a head scratcher, because Pittsburgh would seemingly be the better suited stop that could leak a bit into Eastern OH. So a stop in the Philly suburbs surprised me a bit.

Under the Romney strategy, the election in PA will be won (if it can be won) with coal votes in Western PA, those bitter gun and bible clingers in the center of the state and middle and upper class suburban voters in both the Pittsburgh and Philly markets

At the end of the day, this campaign stop is designed to set a narrative in the vapid lamestream press that Romney is on the offensive while Obama is defending some crucial battelground states. Who knows if it will have the intended affect. But I can't fault the strategy.

I expect democrats are counting Ohio as "in the bag" for Obama because the Romney campaign seems to be acting as if it is. I don't think it is, and as you pointed out, Team Obama obviously doesn't think it is, but Romney is spending much of the final week elsewhere.  Imo, we're past the time for narrative and clever strategies, and down to brute force: get your voters to the polls.  I don't think the scattershot approach is going to generate usefully positive results for Romney.

At this point, even if Romney wins, I'm going to credit a last-minute reluctance by voters to re-elect Obama rather than anything Romney's done since the end of the debates.

[Middle-aged Europe]

romney evidently feels he has NC, FL, CO locked up.  I agreee with him.  Probably VA too.

So Romney bases his election strategy on a "feeling" that he has already won? Oh, dear.